New Directions in Climate Change VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS, AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT

SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP

Jennifer F. Brewer, Rapporteur

Subcommittee for a Workshop on New Directions in Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment

Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
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Jennifer F. Brewer, Rapporteur Subcommittee for a Workshop on New Directions in Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This workshop was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Contract No. 68-C-03,081 with support also coming from the U.S. Geologi- cal Survey, the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-13006-6 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-13006-9 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, Lockbox 285, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2009). New Directions in Cli- mate Change Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment: Summary of a Workshop. Jennifer F. Brewer, Rapporteur, Subcommittee for a Workshop on New Directions in Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro- viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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SubCOMMITTEE FOR A WORkSHOP ON NEW DIRECTIONS IN VuLNERAbILITy, IMPACTS, AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT THOMAS J. WILbANkS (Chair), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN LINDA O. MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO CyNTHIA E. ROSENZWEIG, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY GARy W. yOHE, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University PAuL C. STERN, Director JENNIFER F. bREWER, Staff Officer LINDA DEPuGH, Administratie Assistant 

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COMMITTEE ON THE HuMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLObAL CHANGE 2008-2009 THOMAS J. WILbANkS (Chair), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN RICHARD N. ANDREWS, Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina RObERT CORELL, H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, Washington, DC kRISTIE L. EbI, ESS, LLC, Alexandria, VA ROGER E. kASPERSON, George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University ANN kINZIG, Department of Biology, Arizona State University MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan TIMOTHy McDANIELS, Eco-Risk Unit, University of British Columbia LINDA O. MEARNS, Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO EDWARD MILES, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington DENNIS OJIMA, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University ALEXANDER PFAFF, Public Policy Department, Duke University EuGENE ROSA, Department of Sociology, Washington State University CyNTHIA E. ROSENZWEIG, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY GARy W. yOHE, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University PAuL C. STERN, Director JENNIFER F. bREWER, Staff Officer LINDA DEPuGH, Administratie Assistant i

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Acknowledgments The Workshop on New Directions in Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adap- tation Assessment would not have happened without generous financial support from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Geologi- cal Survey, the U.S. National Aeronautic and Space Administration, and the U.S. Department of Energy. We thank them for that support. The project originated under the auspices of the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change. I thank my fellow members of the steering committee responsible for concept development, organization, and planning for their enthusiastic efforts. Cynthia Rosenzweig deserves special thanks for providing the original idea, motivation, and organiza- tional efforts. Our work also benefited significantly from the thoughtful contributions of Gary Yohe and Linda Mearns. In addition to the members of the subcommittee, the other workshop presenters, Neil Leary, Richard Moss, Martin Parry, and Roger Pulwarty, helped greatly in orienting and stimulating workshop discussion. I also thank all of the workshop participants from academic institutions, public agencies, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations for con- tributing such constructive comment and dialogue (see the Appendix for a list of participants). This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in ii

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iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for quality and objectivity. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Kristie L. Ebi, Consultant, ESS, LLC, Alexandria, VA, and Alexander Pfaff, Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University. Although these reviewers have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the report, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was ably overseen by Diana Liverman of the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University. Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institu- tional procedures and that all review comments were carefully consid- ered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the institution. Finally, I would like to recognize the contributions of the National Research Council staff: Paul Stern, who provided oversight for work- shop organization; Jennifer Brewer, who wrote this report; Linda DePugh, who organized the workshop logistical arrangements; Kirsten Sampson Snyder, who facilitated the peer review process; and Eugenia Grohman, whose careful editing was invaluable. Thomas J. Wilbanks, Chair Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change

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Contents Introduction 1 Presentations 3 Discussion: Emerging Needs in Decision Support 14 Discussion: Organizational Needs and Issues 17 Discussion: Research Priorities 23 Wrap-Up Comments 28 Appendix: Workshop Participants 31 ix

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