Tech Cast

Signtific (X2)

Delta Scan

System attributes

Partially meets. System is persistent but not open. Bias mitigation processes not apparent. Degree of scalability unclear. English only. Intuitive system with limited communication tools.

Partially meets. System is persistent and open. Bias mitigation processes not apparent. Degree of scalability unclear. English only. Additional communication tools could improve usability.

Limited. Open to access but not to participate. System not persistent (last updated in 2006). Bias mitigation processes not apparent. Degree of scalability unclear. English only. Additional communication tools could improve usability.

Summary

Partially meets. TechCast partially meets the attributes of the persistent forecasting system with strengths in ease of use and in quantifying the probability of occurrence, impact, and forecast timing. Could improve by broadening methods of data sourcing, utilizing more forecasting techniques, incorporating multiple languages, diversifying the forecast team (including the public), and strengthening data output and processing tools. The forecast produced is a single view of the future synthesized by the system operator.

Partially meets. X2 partially meets the attributes of the persistent forecasting system, with strength in openness, qualitative data capture, multiple data sources, and multiple forecasting methods. Could improve by adding multiple language support, strengthening quantitative forecasting methods, processing tools, and visualization techniques. The system lacks consistent participation from users and forecasters. Forecast suffers from inadequate preparation of the initial problem set and definition of the scope of the forecasting mission.

Partially meets. Delta Scan partially meets the attributes of the ideal forecasting system with particular strength in the robustness of the data forecast output. The system could be strengthened by being persistent and including additional data sources, forecast methods, public participation, native language support, and better processing tools.

REFERENCES

Castro, Cesar, and Mathias Crawford. 2008. X2: Threats, opportunities, and advances in science & technology, Presentation to the committee on November 6 by the Research Director for the Institute for the Future.

Halal, William E. 2009. Forecasting the technology revolution, Presentation to the committee on August 3 by the President of TechCast, LLC.

Woodroof, Harry. 2007. Delta Scan, Uses in U.K. government, Presentation to the committee on October 15 by the Leader, Delta (S&T) Scan, Horizon Scanning Centre, Government Office for Science, United Kingdom.



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