This chapter introduced the concepts of individual bias and forecasting bias and discussed their effects on the validity of a forecast and the ignorance that leads to the two forms of bias. Technology forecasts often suffer from bias due to inadequacies in the method of forecasting, the source of the data, or the makeup of those who develop the method. While some bias may be unavoidable, much of it can be identified and mitigated by developing a broad and inclusive forecasting system. The committee believes that the mitigation of forecasting bias requires periodic audits by internal and external evaluators to ensure the diversity of participants and data sources as well as the robustness of the forecasting process.

Bennett, M. 1977. Response characteristics of bilingual managers to organizational questionnaires. Personnel Psychology 30: 29-36.

Bond, M.H., and M.K. Cheung. 1984. Experimenter language choice and ethnic affirmation by Chinese trilinguals in Hong Kong. International Journal of Intercultural Relations 8: 347-356.

Bond, Michael H., Kwok Leung, Al Au, Kwok-Kit Tong, and Zoë Chemonges-Nielson. 2004. Combining social axioms with values in predicting social behaviours. European Journal of Personality 18: 177-191.

Carstensen, Laura L., Derek M. Isaacowitz, and Susan T. Charles. 1999. Taking time seriously: A theory of socioemotional selectivity. American Psychologist 54(3): 165-181.

Costanza, Robert, Bryan G. Norton, and Benjamin D. Haskell. 1992. Ecosystem health: New goals for environmental management. Chicago, Ill.: Island Press.

Dooley, Kevin. 1996. A Nominal Definition of Complex Adaptive Systems. The Chaos Network 8(1): 2-3. Available at http://www.public.asu.edu/~kdooley/papers/casdef.PDF. Last accessed November 19, 2009.

Faber, Malte, Reiner Manstetten, and John Proops. 1992a. Humankind and the environment: An anatomy of surprise and ignorance. Environmental Values 1(3): 217-241.

Faber, Malte, Reiner Manstetten, and John Proops. 1992b. Toward an open future: Ignorance, novelty, and evolution. Pp. 72-96 in Ecosystem Health: New Goals for Environmental Management, Robert Costanza, Bryan G. Norton, and Benjamin D. Haskell, eds. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

Fingerman, Karen L., and Marion Perlmutter. 1995. Future time perspective and life events across adulthood. Journal of General Psychology 122(1): 95-111.

Gelfand, M.J., J.L. Raver, and K. Holcombe Ehrhart. 2002. Methodological issues in cross-cultural organizational research. Pp. 216-241 in Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology Research Methods, S. Rogelberg, ed. New York: Blackwell.

Gelfand, M.J., M. Erez, and Z. Aycan. 2007. Cross-cultural organizational behavior. Annual Review of Psychology 58: 479-514.

Hofstede, G., B. Neuijen, D.D. Ohayv, and G. Sanders. 1990. Measuring organizational cultures: A qualitative and quantitative study across twenty cases. Administrative Science Quarterly 35(2): 286-316.

House, Robert J., Paul J. Hanges, Mansour Javidan, Peter Dorfman, and Vipin Gupta, eds. 2004. Culture, Leadership, and Organizations: The GLOBE Study of 62 Societies. Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage Publications.

Huntington, S. 1996. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New York: Simon & Schuster.

Marin, G., H.C. Triandis, H. Betancourt, and Y. Kashima. 1983. Ethnic affirmation versus social desirability: Explaining discrepancies in bilinguals’ responses to a questionnaire. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 14(2): 173-186.

Ramos-Martin, Jesus. 2003. Empiricism in ecological economics: A perspective from complex systems theory. Ecological Economics 46(3): 387-398.

Schneider, Stephen, and B.L. Turner. 1995. Summary: Anticipating global change surprise. Pp. 6-18 in Anticipating Global Change Surprises. A Report of the Aspen Global Change Institute Elements of Change Series, John Katzenberger, and Susan Joy Hassol, eds. Aspen, Colo.: Aspen Global Change Institute.

Schwartz, S.H. 1994. Beyond individualism/collectivism: New dimensions of values. In Individualism and Collectivism: Theory Application and Methods. U. Kim, H.C. Triandis, C. Kagitcibasi, S.C. Choi, and G. Yoon. eds. Newbury Park, Calif.: Sage.

Sharma, Karan. 2008. Designing knowledge based systems as complex adaptive systems. Pp. 424-428 in Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and Applications, Vol. 171, Wang Pei, Ben Goertzel, and Stan Franklin, eds. Amsterdam, Netherlands: IOS Press.