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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies
This chapter introduced the concepts of individual bias and forecasting bias and discussed their effects on the validity of a forecast and the ignorance that leads to the two forms of bias. Technology forecasts often suffer from bias due to inadequacies in the method of forecasting, the source of the data, or the makeup of those who develop the method. While some bias may be unavoidable, much of it can be identified and mitigated by developing a broad and inclusive forecasting system. The committee believes that the mitigation of forecasting bias requires periodic audits by internal and external evaluators to ensure the diversity of participants and data sources as well as the robustness of the forecasting process.
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