Medical Isotope Production Without Highly Enriched Uranium

for Mo-99 could be slightly higher than the 2006 estimates provided by the NNSA and ANSTO (2007) report. However, because of supply disruptions in 2007 and 2008 that were described in Chapter 4, it is not likely that all of the demand for Mo-99 in 2008 had been met.

PROJECTED DEMAND FOR MOLYBDENUM-99

The projected demand for Mo-99 is of great interest to both current producers and to potential new producers. Future demand is unknowable in a strictly quantitative sense because it will be determined by events that have yet to occur and that cannot necessarily be predicted. Several factors that could affect projected demand growth are discussed in the following sections of this chapter.

The committee used several sources of information to develop projected demand estimates for this report, including published estimates, estimates provided to the committee at its information-gathering sessions, and commercial market analyses. Some of the projected demand information gathered by the committee was provided under nondisclosure agreements. The committee has not disclosed any proprietary information in this report, but it has used proprietary information to “ground truth” its projected demand estimates.

The information sources used to develop demand growth estimates are not strictly independent. The commercially available market analyses are based on information provided by Mo-99 producers, technetium generator manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, and hospitals. Mo-99 producers and technetium generator manufacturers use these market analyses and other information to develop their own projected demand estimates for business planning purposes. Consequently, there is likely to be some circularity of information and reasoning reflected in these various estimates.

A commercial market analysis prepared by Bio-Tech Systems, Inc. (Bio-Tech Systems, 2006)¹ provides a detailed assessment of future demand for Tc-99m. These estimates are based on the analysis of the radiopharmaceutical market, including the potential penetration of alternate imaging modalities that could substitute for Tc-99m in diagnostic imaging, as well as the impacts of demographic changes on the demand for imaging procedures. Demand for Tc-99m is an accurate indicator of Mo-99 demand

The National Academies, at the committee’s request, purchased the global rights to this report. The committee was not able to evaluate the methods or data used by Bio-Tech Systems to develop the estimates contained in this report and therefore cannot vouch for their accuracy. However, based on conversations with industry representatives, the committee judges that this report is generally viewed as an authoritative and valuable source of information on the diagnostic radiopharmaceutical market. The report is available in the public access file for this study.

Table of Contents

Front Matter R1-R18

Summary 1-6

1 Background and Study Task 7-15

2 Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m Production and Use 16-30

3 Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m Supply 31-54

4 Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m Supply Reliability 55-65

5 Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m Demand 66-79

6 Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m Production Costs 80-89

7 Conversion to LEU-Based Production of Molybdenum-99: Technical Considerations 90-100

8 Conversion to LEU-Based Production of Molybdenum-99: Regulatory Considerations 101-107

9 Conversion to LEU-Based Production of Molybdenum-99: General Approaches and Timing 108-113

10 Conversion to LEU-Based Production of Molybdenum-99: Prospects and Feasibility 114-141

11 Progress in Eliminating HEU Use 142-162

References 163-168

Appendix A: Section 630 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 169-172

Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 173-180

Appendix C: Presentations and Visits 181-183

Appendix D: Alternative Molybdenum-99 Production Processes 184-189

Appendix E: Correspondence with Atomic Energy of Canada Limited 190-193

Appendix F: Present Value Calculation 194-195

Appendix G: Glossary 196-199

Appendix H: Acronyms 200-202

PROJECTED DEMAND FOR MOLYBDENUM-99