tial savings in each; and its review of experience with and lessons learned from U.S. federal and state policies and programs (Chapter 5), the panel concluded that the potential for U.S. energy savings is large. Synthesizing the discussions and details presented across the chapters, the panel developed four overarching findings, which are presented below. The sector-specific findings given in Chapters 2 through 4 are also listed.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY SAVINGS

Table S.1 gives the panel’s conservative and optimistic estimates of potential cost-effective annual energy savings in U.S. buildings, transportation, and industry for 2020 and 2030. These estimates represent technology assessments, not projections—that is, the estimates are assessments of the potential energy savings achievable with the use of energy efficiency technologies, assuming a rapid rate of deployment, but one nevertheless consistent with past deployment rates.

As indicated in Table S.1, the panel found that energy efficiency in buildings offers the greatest possibility for U.S. energy savings; by 2020, in the optimistic scenario, buildings would account for 53 percent of the total estimated savings,

TABLE S.1 Panel Estimate of the Potential for Cost-Effective Annual U.S. Energy Savings (in quads) Achievable with Energy Efficiency Technologies in 2020 and 2030

 

Conservative Estimate

Optimistic Estimate

2020

2030

2020

2030

Buildings, primary (source) electricity

9.4

14.4

9.4

14.4

Residential

4.4

6.4

4.4

6.4

Commercial

5.0

8.0

5.0

8.0

Buildings, natural gas

2.4

3.0

2.4

3.0

Residential

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

Commercial

0.9

1.5

0.9

1.5

Transportation, light-duty vehicles

2.0

8.2

2.6

10.7

Industry, manufacturing

4.9

4.9

7.7

7.7

Total

18.6

30.5

22.1

35.8

Note: Savings are relative to the reference scenario of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (EIA, 2008a) or, for transportation, a similar scenario developed by the panel. See Table 1.2 for more information on the baselines used in the panel’s analysis of the buildings, transportation, and industry sectors.



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