Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop (2009)

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Deborah Glickson, Editor Committee on Oceanography in 2025: A Workshop Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies 

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS  500 Fifth Street, N.W.  Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. N00014-05-G-0288, TO 17 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of Naval Research. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organiza- tions or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-13745-4 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-13745-4 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America 

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STEERING COMMITTEE ON OCEANOGRAPHY IN 2025: A WORKSHOP DANIEL L. RUDNICK (Chair), Scripps Institution of Oceanography ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University JAY S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company (ret.) MARY JANE PERRY, University of Maine Staff DEBORAH GLICKSON, Study Director HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant  

OCEAN STUDIES BOARD SHIRLEY A. POMPONI (Chair), Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution, Ft. Pierce, Florida MARCIA K. MCNUTT (Chair beginning 3/1/2009), Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California DONALD F. BOESCH, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge JORGE E. CORREDOR, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez KEITH R. CRIDDLE, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau MARY (MISSY) H. FEELEY, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, Texas DEBRA HERNANDEZ, Hernandez and Company, Isle of Palms, South Carolina ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University, Corvallis KIHO KIM, American University, Washington, DC BARBARA A. KNUTH, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York ROBERT A. LAWSON, Science Applications International Corporation, San Diego, California GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California JAY S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company (ret.), Port Angeles, Washington ANDREW A. ROSENBERG, University of New Hampshire, Durham DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ANNE M. TREHU, Oregon State University, Corvallis PETER L. TYACK, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts DAWN J. WRIGHT, Oregon State University, Corvallis JAMES A. YODER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts OSB Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Director CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer SUSAN PARK, Program Officer JODI BOSTROM, Associate Program Officer DEBORAH GLICKSON, Associate Program Officer SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant JEREMY JUSTICE, Program Assistant vi 

Preface On January 8 and 9, 2009, the Ocean Studies Board of the National Research Council (NRC), in response to a request from the Office of Naval Research, hosted the “Oceanography in 2025” workshop. The goal of the workshop was to bring together scientists, engineers, and technologists to explore future directions in oceanography, with an emphasis on physical processes. The focus centered on research and technology needs, trends, and barriers that may impact the field of oceanography over the next 16 years, and highlighted specific areas of interest: submesoscale processes, air-sea interactions, basic and applied research, instrumentation and vehi- cles, ocean infrastructure, and education. To guide the white papers and drive discussions, four questions were posed to participants: • What research questions could be answered? • What will remain unanswered? • What new technologies could be developed? • How will research be conducted? Four keynote speakers, chosen for their diversity of opinions, pre- sented their vision of future needs in oceanography from observation, modeling, and/or societal viewpoints. We wish to thank Dr. Chris Garrett, University of Victoria; Dr. Russ Davis, Scripps Institution of Oceanog- raphy; Dr. Kelly Benoit-Bird, Oregon State University; and Dr. Raffaele Ferrari, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In addition, we wish to vii 

viii PREFACE thank Rear Admiral David Titley, Commander of the Naval Meteorol- ogy and Oceanography Command, for his introductory comments to the workshop participants. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro- cedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as accurate as possible and to ensure that the content of the proceedings is relevant to the workshop. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank our reviewers for the time and effort they put into this review. We also wish to thank Cheryl Logan, NRC Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow, for her work copyedit- ing this document. The workshop proceedings should not be confused with a National Academies consensus report. The proceedings do not contain findings or recommendations endorsed by the National Academies or the National Research Council. Any advice, findings, conclusions, or recommendations in these proceedings are strictly those of the author(s) and do not reflect consensus of the workshop participants. The agenda and participant list are reprinted in Appendixes A and B, respectively. 

Contents Introduction and Goals 1 Linwood Vincent Integrated Oceanography in 2025 3 John J. Cullen Oceanography in 2028 6 Mark Abbott The Changing Relationship Between Humans and the Ocean 11 J. G. Bellingham Societal Implications for Ocean Research in 2025 14 Matthew Alford Oceanography in 2025: Responding to Growing Populations on a Rapidly Changing Planet 17 Scott Glenn Some Thoughts on Physical Oceanography in 2025 22 Ken Melville The Next-Generation Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean-Ice-Land Models for Ocean Research and Prediction 26 Shuyi S. Chen ix 

 CONTENTS Science in Action, Episode 1: Exploring Boundaries 28 Meghan F. Cronin Real Time Decision Support Everywhere 31 Nathaniel G. Plant Trends in Oceanography: More Data, More People, More Relevance 36 J. Thomson Future Developments to Observational Physical Oceanography 39 Tom Sanford Prospects for Oceanography in 2025 43 Michael Gregg Oceanography in 2025 46 John Orcutt Thoughts on Oceanography in 2025 49 Daniel Rudnick The Role of Observations in the Future of Oceanography 52 Raffaele Ferrari The Future . . . One More Time 55 Rob Pinkel The Role of Acoustics in Ocean Observing Systems 58 Peter Worcester and Walter Munk Oceanography in 2025 63 Walter Munk Physical Oceanography in 2025 65 Chris Garrett A Vision of Future Physical Oceanography Research 68 James J. O’Brien Some Thoughts on Logistics, Mixing, and Power 70 J. N. Moum Ageostrophic Circulation in the Ocean 73 Peter Niiler 

CONTENTS xi The Future of Ocean Modeling 77 Sonya Legg, Alistair Adcroft, Whit Anderson, V. Balaji, John Dunne, Stephen Griffies, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Isaac Held, Tony Rosati, Robbie Toggweiler, Geoff Vallis, Laurent White Towards Nonhydrostatic Ocean Modeling with Large-eddy Simulation 81 Oliver B. Fringer Simulations of Marine Turbulence and Surface Waves: Potential Impacts of Petascale Technology 84 Peter P. Sullivan Computational Simulation and Submesoscale Variability 89 James C. McWilliams Ocean Measurements from Space in 2025 92 A. Freeman Future of Nearshore Processes Research 98 Rob Holman Future Directions in Nearshore Oceanography 101 H. Tuba Özkan-Haller Science Strategies for the Arctic Ocean 104 Mary-Louise Timmermans Submesoscale Variability of the Upper Ocean: Patchy and Episodic Fluxes Into and Through Biologically Active Layers 107 Daniel Rudnick, Mary Jane Perry, John J. Cullen, Bess Ward, Kenneth S. Johnson Who’s Blooming? Toward an Understanding of Why Certain Species Dominate Phytoplankton Blooms 111 Mary Jane Perry, Michael Sieracki, Bess Ward, Alan Weidemann Understanding Phytoplankton Bloom Development 115 Bess Ward and Mary Jane Perry From Short Food Chains to Complex Interaction Webs: Biological Oceanography in 2025 118 Kelly J. Benoit-Bird The Interface between Biological and Physical Processes 121 Mark Abbott 

xii CONTENTS Research on Higher Trophic Levels 124 Daniel P. Costa, Yann Tremblay, Sean Hayes Marine Biogeochemistry in 2025 130 Kenneth S. Johnson Next-generation Oceanographic Sensors for Short-Term Prediction/ Verification of In-water Optical Conditions 135 Mark L. Wells Evolution of Autonomous Platform for Sustained Ocean Observations 138 Russ E. Davis Toward an Interdisciplinary Ocean Observing System in 2025 141 Eric D’Asaro Small Scale Ocean Dynamics in 2025 144 Jonathan Nash Oceanography in 2025 146 Dana R. Yoerger The Research Vessel Problem 150 J.N. Moum, Eric D’Asaro, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Peter Niiler “Ocean Mapping” in 2025 153 Larry Mayer Seismic Oceanography: Imaging Oceanic Finestructure with Reflection Seismology 157 W. Steven Holbrook The Ocean Planet 2.0: A Vision for 2025 163 Justin Manley Force Projection Through the Littoral Zone: Optical Considerations 166 Kendall Carder Large Scale Phase-resolved Simulations of Ocean Surface Waves 171 Yuming Liu and Dick K.P. Yue Appendix A: Workshop Agenda 179 Appendix B: Workshop Participants 181