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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop (2009)
Ocean Studies Board (OSB)

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Glickson, Deborah. "Marine Biogeochemistry in 2025--Kenneth S. Johnson." Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2009.

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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop

Marine Biogeochemistry in 2025

Kenneth S. Johnson*


Developments in the past five years have enabled a remarkable shift in measurement capabilities that will revolutionize our approach to observing ocean biogeochemistry on a global scale. A suite of chemical and biological sensors can now be deployed for years in the ocean on profiling floats and return data with no detectable drift in sensor response. These systems are becoming sufficiently affordable that it is possible to envision biogeochemical sensor networks with hundreds of nodes or more, similar to the current Argo network of 3000 profiling floats. This will allow the development of basin-scale and, ultimately, global-scale observing systems. These sensor networks will permit ocean scientists to quantitatively observe fundamental biogeochemical processes such as rates of nutrient supply, net community production, physical controls on bloom development (e.g., the Sverdrup Hypothesis), dynamics of oxygen minimum zones and their impacts on denitrification, and carbon export throughout the ocean with a level of detail hitherto impossible. The spatial and temporal responses of these processes to climate oscillations and greenhouse gas forcing will be observed with a resolution that is simply not possible when observations are limited to ships. An integrated observing system that combines in situ sensors deployed on long endurance platforms with satellite sensors and data-assimilating, biogeochemical-

*

Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

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130
Front Matter (R1-R12)
Introduction and Goals--Linwood Vincent (1-2)
Integrated Oceanography in 2025--John J. Cullen (3-5)
Oceanography in 2028--Mark Abbott (6-10)
The Changing Relationship Between Humans and the Ocean--J. G. Bellingham (11-13)
Societal Implications for Ocean Research in 2025--Matthew Alford (14-16)
Oceanography in 2025: Responding to Growing Populations on a Rapidly Changing Planet--Scott Glenn (17-21)
Some Thoughts on Physical Oceanography in 2025--Ken Melville (22-25)
The Next-Generation Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean-Ice-Land Models for Ocean Research and Prediction--Shuyi S. Chen (26-27)
Science in Action, Episode 1: Exploring Boundaries--Meghan F. Cronin (28-30)
Real Time Decision Support Everywhere--Nathaniel G. Plant (31-35)
Trends in Oceanography: More Data, More People, More Relevance--J. Thomson (36-38)
Future Developments to Observational Physical Oceanography--Tom Sanford (39-42)
Prospects for Oceanography in 2025--Michael Gregg (43-45)
Oceanography in 2025--John Orcutt (46-48)
Thoughts on Oceanography in 2025--Daniel Rudnick (49-51)
The Role of Observations in the Future of Oceanography--Raffaele Ferrari (52-54)
The Future . . . One More Time--Rob Pinkel (55-57)
The Role of Acoustics in Ocean Observing Systems--Peter Worcester and Walter Munk (58-62)
Oceanography in 2025--Walter Munk (63-64)
Physical Oceanography in 2025--Chris Garrett (65-67)
A Vision of Future Physical Oceanography Research--James J. O'Brien (68-69)
Some Thoughts on Logistics, Mixing, and Power--J. N. Moum (70-72)
Ageostrophic Circulation in the Ocean--Peter Niiler (73-76)
The Future of Ocean Modeling--Sonya Legg, Alistair Adcroft, Whit Anderson, V. Balaji, John Dunne, Stephen Griffies, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Isaac Held, Tony Rosati, Robbie Toggweiler, Geoff Vallis, and Laurent White (77-80)
Towards Nonhydrostatic Ocean Modeling with Large-eddy Simulation--Oliver B. Fringer (81-83)
Simulations of Marine Turbulence and Surface Waves: Potential Impacts of Petascale Technology--Peter P. Sullivan (84-88)
Computational Simulation and Submesoscale Variability--James C. McWilliams (89-91)
Ocean Measurements from Space in 2025--A. Freeman (92-97)
Future of Nearshore Processes Research--Rob Holman (98-100)
Future Directions in Nearshore Oceanography--H. Tuba Özkan-Haller (101-103)
Science Strategies for the Arctic Ocean--Mary-Louise Timmermans (104-106)
Submesoscale Variability of the Upper Ocean: Patchy and Episodic Fluxes Into and Through Biologically Active Layers--Daniel Rudnick, Mary Jane Perry, John J. Cullen, Bess Ward, and Kenneth S. Johnson (107-110)
Who's Blooming? Toward an Understanding of Why Certain Species Dominate Phytoplankton Blooms--Mary Jane Perry, Michael Sieracki, Bess Ward, and Alan Weidemann (111-114)
Understanding Phytoplankton Bloom Development--Bess Ward and Mary Jane Perry (115-117)
From Short Food Chains to Complex Interaction Webs: Biological Oceanography in 2025--Kelly J. Benoit-Bird (118-120)
The Interface Between Biological and Physical Processes--Mark Abbott (121-123)
Research on Higher Trophic Levels--Daniel P. Costa, Yann Tremblay, and Sean Hayes (124-129)
Marine Biogeochemistry in 2025--Kenneth S. Johnson (130-134)
Next-Generation Oceanographic Sensors for Short-Term Prediction/Verification of In-water Optical Conditions--Mark L. Wells (135-137)
Evolution of Autonomous Platform for Sustained Ocean Observations--Russ E. Davis (138-140)
Toward an Interdisciplinary Ocean Observing System in 2025--Eric D'Asaro (141-143)
Small Scale Ocean Dynamics in 2025--Jonathan Nash (144-145)
Oceanography in 2025--Dana R. Yoerger (146-149)
The Research Vessel Problem--J. N. Moum, Eric D'Asaro, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Peter Niiler (150-152)
"Ocean Mapping" in 2025--Larry Mayer (153-156)
Seismic Oceanography: Imaging Oceanic Finestructure with Reflection Seismology--W. Steven Holbrook (157-162)
The Ocean Planet 2.0: A Vision for 2025--Justin Manley (163-165)
Force Projection Through the Littoral Zone: Optical Considerations--Kendall Carder (166-170)
Large Scale Phase-resolved Simulations of Ocean Surface Waves--Yuming Liu and Dick K.P. Yue (171-176)
Appendixes (177-178)
Appendix A: Workshop Agenda (179-180)
Appendix B: Workshop Participants (181-186)

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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop Marine Biogeochemistry in 2025 Kenneth S. Johnson* Developments in the past five years have enabled a remarkable shift in measurement capabilities that will revolutionize our approach to observing ocean biogeochemistry on a global scale. A suite of chemical and biological sensors can now be deployed for years in the ocean on profiling floats and return data with no detectable drift in sensor response. These systems are becoming sufficiently affordable that it is possible to envision biogeochemical sensor networks with hundreds of nodes or more, similar to the current Argo network of 3000 profiling floats. This will allow the development of basin-scale and, ultimately, global-scale observing systems. These sensor networks will permit ocean scientists to quantitatively observe fundamental biogeochemical processes such as rates of nutrient supply, net community production, physical controls on bloom development (e.g., the Sverdrup Hypothesis), dynamics of oxygen minimum zones and their impacts on denitrification, and carbon export throughout the ocean with a level of detail hitherto impossible. The spatial and temporal responses of these processes to climate oscillations and greenhouse gas forcing will be observed with a resolution that is simply not possible when observations are limited to ships. An integrated observing system that combines in situ sensors deployed on long endurance platforms with satellite sensors and data-assimilating, biogeochemical- * Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop ecological models would provide previously unachievable constraints on the carbon cycle and its sensitivity to a changing climate. It would transform ocean biogeochemistry. Today, our primary sources of information on temporal variability of biogeochemical processes within the ocean come from a few, ship-based time series programs at single points (e.g., Hawaii Ocean Time-series [HOT], Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study [BATS], Carbon Retention In A Colored Ocean [CARIACO], European Station for Time-series in the Ocean, Canary Islands [ESTOC]) and from satellite ocean color measurements. In addition, a few programs, such as the Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT), involve repeat transects over broad regions at near annual scales. Ship-based sampling at time series sites is generally monthly, at best, which misses high frequency processes. Satellites excel at providing global coverage at higher frequencies in cloud-free areas, but ocean color data is generally limited to one optical depth (<30 m in much of the ocean), the data do not resolve vertical structure and many high latitude areas are not cloud-free. The result is that we have little understanding of how ocean biogeochemistry is changing in response to natural climate oscillations such as El Niño and PDO or to anthropogenic climate changes driven by burning fossil fuels. Even the processes that control regular, annual events such as the spring bloom at high latitudes are not always well understood. Oxygen sensors are now being deployed on profiling floats for multi-year periods with little or no drift in sensor response (Kortzinger et al. 2005; Johnson et al. 2007). These sensors are being used to study ocean ventilation (Kortzinger et al. 2004), the balance of net community production in oligotrophic regions (Riser and Johnson 2008), and carbon export (Martz et al. 2008). Remarkable precision has been attained with oxygen sensors deployed for years on profiling floats (Kortzinger et al. 2005; Riser and Johnson 2008). Bio-optical sensor technologies have also advanced rapidly. There have now been a number of studies using sensors on profiling floats (Mitchell et al. 2000; Bishop et al. 2002; 2004). The data reported by Boss et al. (2008a; 2008b) show measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence from 400 m depth to the surface in the North Atlantic for three years (Figure 1). These observations clearly resolve the annual cycle with no apparent drift in sensor response at depth and the data show remarkable events driven by mesoscale processes. Optical nitrate sensors (Johnson and Coletti 2002) are currently deployed on profiling floats and have operated successfully for more than one year with little sensor drift (Figure 2). The power budget implies that they can operate for 4 years with 60 nitrate measurements from 1000 m to the surface at a cycle time of 5 days. Plans to deploy pCO2 sensors on floats are under way (Kortzinger, personal communication). Long-endurance pH sensors based on

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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop FIGURE 1 Chlorophyll fluorescence observed over three years with sensors on an Apex profiling float in the North Atlantic. The spring bloom is clearly resolved each year and a remarkable export event is seen in mid- to late-2006. Data from Boss et al. (2008a). Ion Selective Field Effect Transistor technology are being adapted for use on profiling floats. Optical particulate inorganic carbon sensors are in development with an eye towards deployment on profiling floats (Guay and Bishop 2002). By 2025, we can expect that the ocean will be populated with a dense array of biogeochemical sensors on platforms that have evolved from the current design of profiling floats. These sensors will allow ocean scientists to monitor significant components of the carbon cycle, ranging from primary production to carbon export, without leaving their office. The availability of this array will greatly shift the way biogeochemistry of the ocean is studied. Numerical models will continuously assimilate this biogeochemical data and offer real time assessments of biogeochemical processes throughout the ocean. Shipboard research will focus primarily on process studies that are conducted within the framework of the background sensor array. These studies will refine our understanding of detailed environmental impacts on processes observed with the global array. Development of the array will enable scientists from around the world, who do not have direct access to the ocean, to participate in biogeochemical science that is on the leading edge.

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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop FIGURE 2 One year of nitrate measurements made with an ISUS nitrate sensor (Johnson and Coletti, 2002) deployed on an Apex profiling float near Hawaii. Real time data is available at http://www.mbari.org/chemsensor/floatviz.htm. Data from K. Johnson and S. Riser. REFERENCES Bishop, J.K.B., R.E. Davis, and J.T. Sherman. 2002. Robotic Observations of Dust Storm Enhancement of Carbon Biomass in the North Pacific. Science. 298: 817-821. Bishop, J.K.B., T.J. Wood, R.E. Davis, and J.T. Sherman. 2004. Robotic Observations of Enhanced Carbon Biomass and Export at 55S. Science. 304: 417-420. Boss, E., M.J. Perry, D. Swift, L. Taylor, P. Brickley, J.R. Zaneveld, and S. Riser. 2008a. Three Years of Ocean Data from a Bio-optical Profiling Float. Eos. 89(2): 209-210. Boss, E., D. Swift, L. Taylor, P. Brickley, R. Zaneveld, S. Riser, M.J. Perry, and P.G. Strutton. 2008b. Observations of Pigment and Particle Distributions in the Western North Atlantic from an Autonomous Float and Ocean Color Satellite. Limnology and Oceanography. in press. Gruber, N., S.C. Doney, S.R. Emerson, D. Gilbert, T. Kobayashi, A. Körtzinger, G.C. Johnson, K.S. Johnson, S.C. Riser, and O. Ulloa. 2006. The Argo-Oxygen Program: A White Paper to Promote the Addition of Oxygen Sensors to the International Argo Float Program. [Online]. Available: http://www-Argo.ucsd.edu/o2_white_paper_web.pdf. Guay, C.K.H. and J.K.B. Bishop. 2002. A Rapid Birefringence Method for Measuring Suspended CaCO3 Concentrations in Seawater. Deep-Sea Research I. 49: 197-210. Johnson, K.S. and L.J. Coletti. 2002. In situ Ultraviolet Spectrophotometry for High Resolution and Long Term Monitoring of Nitrate, Bromide and Bisulfide in the Ocean. Deep-Sea Research I. 49: 1291-1305. Johnson, K.S., J.A. Needoba, S.C. Riser, and W.J. Showers. 2007. Chemical Sensor Networks for the Aquatic Environment. Chemical Reviews. 107: 623-640, doi 10.1021/cr050354e.

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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop Körtzinger, A., J. Schimanski, U. Send, and D. Wallace. 2004. The Ocean Takes a Deep Breath. Science. 306: 1337. Körtzinger, A., J. Schimanski, and U. Send. 2005. High Quality Oxygen Measurements from Profiling Floats: A Promising New Technique. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. 22: 302-308. Martz, T.R, K.S. Johnson, and S.C. Riser. 2008. Ocean Metabolism Observed with Oxygen Sensors on Profiling Floats in the Pacific. Limnology and Oceanography, in press. Mitchell, B.G., M. Kahru, and J. Sherman. 2000. Autonomous Temperature-irradiance Profiler Resolves the Spring Bloom in the Sea of Japan. Proceedings, Ocean Optics XV. Monaco, October 2000. Riser, S.C. and K.S. Johnson. 2008. Net Production of Oxygen in the Subtropical Ocean. Nature. 451: 323-325.