. "Use of Predictive Modeling Packages for Effective Emergency Management--Nikolai Petrovich Kopylov and Irek Ravilevich Khasanov." Russian Views on Countering Terrorism During Eight Years of Dialogue: Extracts from Proceedings of Four Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2009.
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Russian Views on Countering Terrorism During Eight Years of Dialogue: Extracts from Proceedings of Four U.S.-Russian Workshops
also be evaluated. After the models are selected, a series of studies needs to be carried out to verify them. A significant volume of work is also needed to adapt mathematical models for use in the Situation Center and to create algorithms and software packages.
Making calculations to forecast fires and emergency situations is impossible without reliable data inputs on facilities. Data collection efforts must be organized and carried out, the information must be processed, and modern technologies and geographic information systems must be used to create a database on facilities at risk of fire and explosion. In using mathematical models of fires and emergency situations based on nonlinear, nonstationary, three-dimensional model systems (for example, field models of fires), it should be taken into account that numerical solution of such systems requires tens of hours of computer time even using high-output processing technologies.
Introducing new modern technologies for numerical simulation of emergency situations requires the following:
Improving the reliability of predictions to prevent and eliminate the consequences of emergency situations
Organizing comprehensive monitoring and information-processing efforts regarding the status of facilities, the environment, and natural and technogenic phenomena that cause emergency situations
Developing mathematical models of the development of fires and emergency situations
Optimizing and facilitating timely correction of action plans and measures for preventing emergency situations as well as eliminating their consequences
Providing a modern level of technical capabilities to support the work of operations personnel, including network communications technologies and means of collecting, analyzing, and presenting information on emergency situations
1. Technogenic is used to refer to phenomena arising as a result of the development or deployment of technology.
2. Vorobyov, Yu. L. 2005. Safety in Daily Activities (Aspects of State Policy). Moscow: Business Express, 376 pp.
3. Faleev, M. I. 2002. Computer technologies in creating an information space for dealing with disasters and catastrophes. iBUSINESS 6:19-21.
4. Concept for the Creation of the National Crisis Management Center. 2005. Moscow: Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defense, Emergencies, and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters, 35 pp.