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Russian Views on Countering Terrorism During Eight Years of Dialogue: Extracts from Proceedings of Four Workshops (2009)
National Research Council (NRC)

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. "Use of Predictive Modeling Packages for Effective Emergency Management--Nikolai Petrovich Kopylov and Irek Ravilevich Khasanov." Russian Views on Countering Terrorism During Eight Years of Dialogue: Extracts from Proceedings of Four Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2009.

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Russian Views on Countering Terrorism During Eight Years of Dialogue: Extracts from Proceedings of Four U.S.-Russian Workshops

also be evaluated. After the models are selected, a series of studies needs to be carried out to verify them. A significant volume of work is also needed to adapt mathematical models for use in the Situation Center and to create algorithms and software packages.

Making calculations to forecast fires and emergency situations is impossible without reliable data inputs on facilities. Data collection efforts must be organized and carried out, the information must be processed, and modern technologies and geographic information systems must be used to create a database on facilities at risk of fire and explosion. In using mathematical models of fires and emergency situations based on nonlinear, nonstationary, three-dimensional model systems (for example, field models of fires), it should be taken into account that numerical solution of such systems requires tens of hours of computer time even using high-output processing technologies.

Introducing new modern technologies for numerical simulation of emergency situations requires the following:

  • Improving the reliability of predictions to prevent and eliminate the consequences of emergency situations

  • Organizing comprehensive monitoring and information-processing efforts regarding the status of facilities, the environment, and natural and technogenic phenomena that cause emergency situations

  • Developing mathematical models of the development of fires and emergency situations

  • Optimizing and facilitating timely correction of action plans and measures for preventing emergency situations as well as eliminating their consequences

  • Providing a modern level of technical capabilities to support the work of operations personnel, including network communications technologies and means of collecting, analyzing, and presenting information on emergency situations

NOTES

  

1. Technogenic is used to refer to phenomena arising as a result of the development or deployment of technology.

  

2. Vorobyov, Yu. L. 2005. Safety in Daily Activities (Aspects of State Policy). Moscow: Business Express, 376 pp.

  

3. Faleev, M. I. 2002. Computer technologies in creating an information space for dealing with disasters and catastrophes. iBUSINESS 6:19-21.

  

4. Concept for the Creation of the National Crisis Management Center. 2005. Moscow: Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defense, Emergencies, and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters, 35 pp.

  

5. National Crisis Management Center.

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Front Matter (R1-R10)
Papers from *High Impact Terrorism: Proceedings of a Russian-American Workshop* (2002) (1-2)
Cooperation Among Ministries of Internal Affairs of CIS Member States in the Fight Against Terrorism and Other Manifestations of Extremism--Igor L. Dimitrov (3-8)
Russian Legislation and the Struggle Against Terrorism--Mikhail P. Kireev (9-18)
Selected Technologies and Procedures Intended to Restrict Unauthorized Access to Explosives--Bronislav V. Matseevich (19-22)
Bioterrorism: A View from the Side--Oleg S. Morenkov (23-30)
Electromagnetic Terrorism--Yury V. Parfyonov (31-34)
Russian Legislation and the Fight Against Terrorism--Viktor E. Petrishchev (35-46)
Could Terrorists Produce Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons?--Stanislav Rodionov (47-50)
Problems of Biological Security in Agriculture--Georgy A. Safonov and Vladimir A. Gavrilov (51-60)
International Centers as a Basis for Controlling Infectious Disease and Countering Bioterrorism--Lev S. Sandakhchiev, Sergey V. Netesov, Raisa A. Martynyuk (61-70)
The Role of Internal Affairs Agencies in Efforts to Fight Terrorism Under High-Technology Conditions--Oleg A. Stepanov (71-78)
Papers from *Terrorism - Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses: U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings* (2004) (79-80)
Analysis of the Threats and Consequences of Terrorist Acts in Urban Settings: Outline of a Protection System--Vladimir Z. Dvorkin (81-92)
Lessons Learned from the Nord-Ost Terrorist Attack in Moscow from the Standpoint of Russian Security and Law Enforcement Agencies--Yevgeny A. Kolesnikov (93-102)
Technical Protection of Electronic Documents in Computer Systems--Valery A. Konyavsky (103-114)
International Aspects of Creating a State System for Countering the Illegal Circulation of Radioactive Materials in the Russian Federation--Vladimir M. Kutsenko (115-118)
Computer Security Training for Professional Specialists and Other Personnel Associated with Preventing and Responding to Computer Attacks--Anatoly A. Malyuk, Nikolai S. Pogozhin, and Aleksey I. Tolstoy (119-128)
Medical Aspects of Combating Acts of Bioterrorism--Gennady G. Onishchenko (129-132)
Certain Aspects Regarding the Development of Conditions Favorable to Cyberterrorism and the Main Areas of Cooperation in the Struggle Against It--Igor A. Sokolov and Vladimir I. Budzko (133-140)
The Role of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs in Combating Terrorism in Urban Conditions--Sergey A. Starostin (141-152)
The Role of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations and Executive Branch Agencies of the City of Moscow in Dealing with Emergency Situations Arising from Acts of Terrorism--Aleksandr M. Yeliseev (153-158)
Papers from *Countering Urban Terrorism in Russia and the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop* (2006) (159-160)
Unauthorized Use of Radiation Sources: Measures to Prevent Attacks and Mitigate Consequences--Leonid Bolshov, Rafael Arutyunyan, Elena Melikhova, and Oleg Pavlovsky (161-178)
Special Characteristics of Firefighting in Urban Areas--Nikolay P. Kopylov (179-198)
On the Events in Beslan--Gennady Kovalenko (199-214)
Terrorist Acts in Moscow: Experience and Lessons in Eliminating Their Consequences--Aleksandr Yu. Kudrin (215-220)
Methodology for Assessing the Risks of Terrorism--Nikolay A. Makhutov (221-236)
Cybercrime and the Training of Specialists to Combat It in Russia--Nikolay V. Medvedev (237-246)
On Efforts to Counter International Terrorism in the Russian Federation and Possible Areas of U.S.-Russian Cooperation in this Area--Valentin A. Sobolev (247-256)
Efforts of Russian Ministries in Implementing Measures to Prevent Acts of Terrorism--Sergey G. Vasin (257-268)
Papers from *Countering Terrorism - Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems: Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop* (2009) (269-270)
Electromagnetic Terrorism: Threat to the Security of the State Infrastructure--Vladimir Ye. Fortov and Yury V. Parfyonov (271-274)
Use of Predictive Modeling Packages for Effective Emergency Management--Nikolai Petrovich Kopylov and Irek Ravilevich Khasanov (275-288)
Organizational Measures and Decision Support Systems for Preventing and Responding to Terrorist Acts at Potentially Hazardous Facilities, on Transportation Systems, and in Locations Where Large Numbers of People Congregate--A. Yu. Kudrin, I. Zaporozhets, and S. A. Kachanov (289-296)
International and National Priorities in Combating Terrorism in the Transportation Sector--Vladimir N. Lopatin (297-304)
Characteristics of Technological Terrorism Scenarios and Impact Factors--Nikolai A. Makhutov, Vitaly P. Petrov, and Dmitry O. Reznikov (305-322)
Emerging Viral Infections in the Asian Part of Russia--Sergei V. Netesov and Natalya A. Markovich (323-338)
Activities of the Russian Federal Medical-Biological Agency Related to Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Security--Vladimir V. Romanov (339-342)
The Problem of Oil and Natural Gas Pipeline Security--S. G. Serebryakov (343-352)