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References Ayres, I. and S. D. Leavitt.,1998. Measuring Positive Externalities from Unobservable Victim Precaution: An Empirical Analysis of Lojack. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 113, No. 1, 43-77. Bier, V.M. and M. Azaiez, eds. 2009. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats. International Series in Operations Research & Management Series, Vol. 128. Springer. Bier, V.M. and N. Haphuriwat. 2009. Personal communication, February 2009. Corera, G. 2006. Shopping for Bombs: Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and the Rise and Fall of the A.Q. Khan Network. Oxford University Press. CBP (U.S. Customs and Border Protection). 2008. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Patrick Simmons, presentation to the Committee on Advanced Spectroscopic Portals, Washington, DC. October 8. Davis, P.K. 2002. Analytic Architecture for Capabilties-Basd Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation. Report # MG-1513-OSD, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA. Dighe, N.S., J. Zhuang, V.M. Bier. 2009. Secrecy in defense allocations as a strategy for achieving more cost-effective attacker deterrence. International Journal of Performability Engineering, vol. 5, no. 1. January. DNDO (Domestic Nuclear Detection Office). 2008a. Overview of cargo scanning and charge to the Committee. Vayl Oxford, presentation to the Committee on Advanced Spectroscopic Portals, Washington, DC. May 23. DNDO. 2008b. Julian Hill, presentation to the Committee on Advanced Spectroscopic Portals, Washington, D.C. October 7, 2008. GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office). 2006. COMBATING NUCLEAR SMUGGLING: Challenges Facing U.S. Efforts to Deploy Radiation Detection Equipment in Other Countries and in the United States. Statement of Gene Aloise Testimony Before the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. GAO-06-558T. March 28. GAO. 2007a. Combating Nuclear Smuggling: DHS’s Cost-Benefit Analysis to Support the Purchase of New Radiation Detection Portal Monitors Was Not Based on Available Performance Data and Did Not Fully Evaluate All the Monitors’ Costs and Benefits. Letter from Gene Aloise to the chairmen of the Senate and House of Representatives Committees on Appropriations. October 17. GAO. 2007b. COMBATING NUCLEAR SMUGGLING, Additional Actions Needed to Ensure Adequate Testing of Next Generation radiation Detection Equipment. GAO-07-1247T. September 18, 2007. GAO. 2008a. Combating Nuclear Smuggling: DHS’s Program to Procure and Deploy Advanced Radiation Detection Portal Monitors Is Likely to Exceed the Department’s Previous Cost Estimates. September 22. GAO. 2008b. NUCLEAR DETECTION: Preliminary Observations on the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office’s Efforts to Develop a Global Nuclear Detection Architecture. Statement of David C. Maurer. GAO-08-999T. July 16. GAO. 2009. NUCLEAR DETECTION: Domestic Nuclear Detection Office Should Improve Planning to Better Address Gaps and Vulnerabilities. GAO-09-257. January. 54

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REFERENCES 55 Gompert, David C., Paul K. Davis, Stuart E. Johnson, and Duncan Long. Setting Global Defense Strategy in the Face of Uncertainty. RAND Research Brief. 2008. Online. Available at: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9379/ Groves, D. and R. Lempert, 2007. A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios. Global Environmental Change 17 (2007) 73-85. IRT (Independent Review Team). 2008. Independent Review of the Department of Homeland Security Domestic Nuclear Detection Office Advanced Spectroscopic Portal Final Report, February 20. Kunreuther, H. 2005. IDS models of airline security. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49, 201- 217. Latourrette, T. and H. Willis, 2007. Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling For Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative Implemented in the Land Environment. RAND working paper WR-487-IEC. May 2007. Martonosi, S. E., D. S. Ortiz, H. H. Willis (2005). Evaluating the viability of 100 percent container inspections at America’s ports. In H.W. Richardson, P. Gordon and J.E. Moore II, The Economic Impacts of Terrorist Attacks. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing. National Academy of Sciences (NAS). 2009. Future of the Nuclear Security Environment in 2015: Proceedings, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. Oxford, V.S., J.P. Ahern, and J. Higbee. 2008. MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD. SUBJECT: Demonstrating Significantly Improved Operational Effectiveness of the Advanced Spectroscopic Portal. July 23, 2008. NAS 2008. Radiation Source Use and Replacement. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. NAS 2007. U.S.-Russian Collaboration in Combating Radiological Terrorism, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. NAS 2005a. Protection, Control, and Accounting of Nuclear Materials: International Challenges and National Programs—Workshop Summary, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. NAS 2005b. Strengthening Long-Term Nuclear Security: Protecting Weapons-Usable Material in Russia, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC NAS 2005c. Strengthening U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC NAS 1999. Protecting Nuclear Weapons Material in Russia, The National Academy Press, Washington, DC NAS 1997. Proliferation Concerns: Assessing U.S. Efforts to Help Contain Nuclear and Other Dangerous Materials and Technologies in the Former Soviet Union, The National Academy Press, Washington, DC Roland, J. Domestic Nuclear Detection Office. Presentation to the ASP committee, June 18, 2008. Stromswold, D.C., et al. 2004. Field tests of a NaI(Tl)-based vehicle portal monitor at border crossings. Nuclear Science Symposium Conference Record, 2004 IEEE. 1:196-200. United States Government Accountability Office. Combating Nuclear Smuggling: DHS's Program to Procure and Deploy Advanced Radiation Detection Portal Monitors Is Likely to Exceed the Department's Previous Cost Estimates. GAO-08-1108R. September 22, 2008.

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56 EVALUATING TESTING, COSTS, & BENEFITS OF ASPs: INTERIM REPORT United States Office of Management and Budget. Circular A-4. September 17, 2003. Online. Available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/obm/circulars_a004_a-4/ von Winterfeldt, D. and T. M. O’Sullivan (2006). Should we protect commercial airplanes against surface-to-air missile attacks by terrorists? Decision Analysis, 3, 63-75. Willis, H. H. and T. LaTourrette (2008). Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling For Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative Implemented in the Land Environment. Risk Analysis, 28, 325-339.