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Committee on the Review of the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration (LACPR) Program Water Science and Technology Board Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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T HE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this study was provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers under contract no. W912DR-07-C-0022. Any opinions, findings, conclu- sions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the au- thor(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agen- cies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14103-1 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14103-6 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 5th Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal gov- ernment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of out- standing engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encour- ages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engi- neers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineer- ing. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engi- neering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON THE REVIEW OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PROTECTION AND RESTORATION PROGRAM ROBERT A. DALRYMPLE, Chairman, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland JOHN J. BOLAND, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland RAYMOND J. BURBY, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill JOHN T. CHRISTIAN, consulting engineer, Waban, Massachusetts REGINALD DESROCHES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta CHARLES G. GROAT, University of Texas, Austin PHILIP L.-F. LIU, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York RICHARD A. LUETTICH, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill ROBERT H. MEADE, consulting hydrologist, Evergreen, Colorado JAMES T. MORRIS, University of South Carolina, Columbia HEIDI NEPF, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JOAN OLTMAN-SHAY, Northwest Research Associates, Redmond, Washington ASBURY H. SALLENGER, U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg, Florida NRC Staff JEFFREY JACOBS, Study Director, Water Science and Technology Board SUSAN J. ROBERTS, Director, Ocean Studies Board MICHAEL J. STOEVER, Research Associate, Water Science and Technology Board v

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Contents SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 6 First Report from the NRC Committee on the Review of the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration (LACPR) Program, 6 2 THE FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION 11 3 KEY SCIENTIFIC, ENGINEERING, AND OTHER TECHNICAL TOPICS 13 Sustainability of the Coastline, 13 Addressing Scientific Uncertainties in Restoration, 18 Engineering Concepts, 21 Other Technical Issues, 26 4 FUTURE PLANNING AND PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION FOR COASTAL RESTORATION AND HURRICANE PROTECTION 33 Adaptive Planning and Implementation, 33 Trade-offs Between Diversions and Navigation, 34 Future Settlement and Induced Development, 35 Constraints of the Current Legislative Setting, 36 REFERENCES 39 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 45 B Acknowledgement of Reviewers 47 C Water Science and Technology Board 49 vii

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viii Contents D Ocean Studies Board 51 E Biographical Sketches for the Committee on the Review of the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Program 53