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Examination of the U.S.Air Force’s Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and its Strategy to Meet Those Needs
Examination of the U.S. Air Force’s Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and Its Strategy to Meet Those Needs
Committee on Examination of the U.S. Air Force’s Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and Its Strategy to Meet Those Needs
Air Force Studies Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Examination of the U.S.Air Force’s Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and its Strategy to Meet Those Needs
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This is a report of work supported by Grant FA9550-08-1-0253 between the U.S. Air Force and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-14197-0
International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-14197-4
Limited copies of this report are available from:
Air Force Studies Board
National Research Council
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-3111
Additional copies are available from:
The National Academies Press
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Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Examination of the U.S.Air Force’s Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and its Strategy to Meet Those Needs
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Examination of the U.S.Air Force’s Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and its Strategy to Meet Those Needs
COMMITTEE ON EXAMINATION OF THE U.S. AIR FORCE’S SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS (STEM) WORKFORCE NEEDS IN THE FUTURE AND ITS STRATEGY TO MEET THOSE NEEDS
NATALIE W. CRAWFORD,
The RAND Corporation,
Co-Chair
GEORGE K. MUELLNER,
American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics,
Co-Chair
WILLIAM P. ARD,
Point One, Inc.
JAMES B. ARMOR, JR.,
The Armor Group, LLC
EARL H. DOWELL,
Duke University
RICHARD P. HALLION,
National Air and Space Museum of the Smithsonian Institution
MICHAEL A. HAMEL,
U.S. Air Force (retired)
RAY M. HAYNES,
Northrop Grumman
LEON A. JOHNSON,
United Parcel Service
LESTER McFAWN,
Wright Brothers Institute
MICHAEL C. McMAHAN,
Abilene Chamber of Commerce
DONALD L. PETERSON,
U.S. Air Force (retired)
LEIF E. PETERSON,
Advanced HR Concepts and Solutions (resigned from the committee on July 14, 2009)
ALBERT A. ROBBERT,
The RAND Corporation
PAULA E. STEPHAN,
Georgia State University
TODD I. STEWART,
Michigan Technological University
RONALD W. YATES,
U.S. Air Force (retired)
Staff
JAMES C. GARCIA, Senior Program Officer (through January, 2010)
ROBERT KATT, Editorial Consultant
KAMARA E. BROWN, Research Associate
ZEIDA PATMON, Program Associate
MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator
URRIKKA WOODS, Program Associate (through February, 2010)
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Examination of the U.S.Air Force’s Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and its Strategy to Meet Those Needs
AIR FORCE STUDIES BOARD
GREGORY S. MARTIN,
GS Martin Consulting,
Chair
PAMELA A. DREW,
TASC, Inc.,
Vice Chair
MARSHA J. BERGER,
New York University
THOMAS J. BURNS,
SET Corporation
THOMAS DARCY,
EADS North America Defense Company
KENNETH E. EICKMANN,
U.S. Air Force (retired)
JOHN V. FARR,
Stevens Institute of Technology
RAND H. FISHER,
Aerospace Corporation
MICHAEL J. GIANELLI,
Boeing Company (retired)
JACQUELINE GISH,
Northrop Grumman Corporation
LESLIE GREENGARD,
New York University
KENNETH C. HALL,
Duke University
WESLEY L. HARRIS,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PAUL G. KAMINSKI,
Technovation, Inc.
LESLIE KENNE,
LK Associates
LESTER L. LYLES,
The Lyles Group
DEBASIS MITRA,
Bell Laboratories
MATT L. MLEZIVA,
Wildwood Strategic Concepts
GERALD F. PERRYMAN, JR.,
Raytheon Company
GENE W. RAY,
GMT Ventures
MARVIN R. SAMBUR,
Headquarters, U.S. Air Force (retired)
J. DANIEL STEWART,
University of Tennessee
Staff
MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Director
JESSICA BROKENBURR, Financial Assistant
KAMARA E. BROWN, Research Associate
WILLIAM E. CAMPBELL, Senior Program Associate (through May 2010)
SARAH CAPOTE, Research Associate
LISA COCKRELL, Senior Program Associate (through August 2009)
GREGORY EYRING, Senior Program Officer
CARTER W. FORD, Program Officer
JAMES C. GARCIA, Senior Program Officer (through January 2010)
CHRIS JONES, Financial Manager
ZEIDA PATMON, Program Associate
MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator
DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer
SHANNON THOMAS, Program Associate
URRIKKA B. WOODS, Program Associate (through February 2010)
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Examination of the U.S.Air Force’s Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and its Strategy to Meet Those Needs
Preface
Technical capabilities have always been critical to the missions and roles of the U.S. Air Force in military operations, and these capabilities are rooted in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). Airmen with such knowledge and skills have played significant roles in career fields across the Air Force, with the science and engineering (S&E) and acquisition career fields receiving the most obvious benefits.
For a variety of reasons, concerns have arisen over the future of both the military and civilian contingents of the Air Force’s STEM workforce. Emerging mission areas, particularly in the space and cyber domains, as well as increasing use of technologically sophisticated systems, such as unmanned air systems, are expanding the need for new technical skills and expertise. Simultaneously, force reductions, ongoing military operations, and budget pressures are creating new challenges for attracting and managing the needed technical skills. Assessments of recent development and acquisition-process failures have identified loss of organic technical competence as an underlying problem. A growing percentage of science and engineering graduates in the United States are foreign citizens and thus ineligible for the security clearances that many jobs in the Air Force and in the aerospace industry require. The existing STEM workforce is aging, with many individuals nearing retirement. Women and minorities are underrepresented in most S&E educational pursuits at a time when they constitute the majority of college students and therefore the majority of the future workforce. The market for STEM-educated U.S. citizens is becoming much more competitive.
Anticipating this challenge, the Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower and Personnel and the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Science, Technology, and Engineering asked the National Research Council (NRC) to examine the Air Force’s STEM workforce needs in the future and its strategy to meet those needs. In response, the NRC formed the ad hoc Committee on Examination of the U.S. Air Force's Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and Its Strategy to Meet Those Needs to conduct this examination. This report contains the results of the committee’s work.
The committee acknowledges and appreciates the contribution of the members of the Air Force Studies Board (AFSB) of the National Research Council for developing the study statement of task in concert with the Air Force sponsor. The committee also thanks the many persons who provided information to the committee, including the guest speakers listed in Appendix B, their organizations, and supporting staff members; the many Air Force officer, enlisted, and civilian functional managers and career field managers who responded to the committee’s inquiries; others, including The Honorable Claude Bolton, General John Corley, and Maj Gen David Eidsaune; and the Air Force study sponsor, Terry Jaggers, and his staff members, including Col Jim Fisher, Maj Dan Doyle, and Barb Hunter. The committee is also grateful to the NRC staff members who provided their dedicated support throughout the study.
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Finally, as co-chairs of the study committee, we extend special thanks to the committee members for the commitment and diligence that enabled us to complete the task successfully.
Natalie W. Crawford, Co-Chair
George K. Muellner, Co-Chair
Committee on Examination of the U.S. Air Force’s Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and Its Strategy to Meet Those Needs
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Examination of the U.S.Air Force’s Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and its Strategy to Meet Those Needs
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Beth J. Asch, RAND Corporation,
Robert J. Beichner, North Carolina State University,
Donald G. Cook, U.S. Air Force (retired),
Richard B. Freeman, Harvard University,
Allison A. Hickey, Accenture National Security Services,
Timothy C. Jones, Northrop Grumman Corporation,
Donald A. Lamontagne, Star Mountain Consulting, Inc.,
Robert H. Latiff, George Mason University,
Mark J. Lewis, University of Maryland,
William Maikisch, U.S. Air Force (retired),
Richard R. Paul, Boeing (retired),
Sharon B. Seymour, U.S. Air Force (retired),
Jan Eakle Terrell, Shippensburg University, and
Sheila Widnall, (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lawrence D. Brown (NAS), University of Pennsylvania, and Elsa M. Garmire (NAE), Dartmouth College. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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Contents
SUMMARY
1
1
INTRODUCTION
12
The Importance of STEM Capabilities to the Air Force,
12
Concerns About the Future STEM Workforce,
13
Statement of Task and Committee Approach,
14
Statement of Task,
14
Assessment of Future Needs,
15
Definitions for Key Concepts,
16
Organization of This Report,
18
References,
18
2
ROLE OF STEM CAPABILITIES IN ACHIEVING THE AIR FORCE VISION AND STRATEGY
20
STEM Needs Across Air Force Missions and Domains,
20
Airpower and Nuclear Deterrence,
20
Emerging Technologies,
21
Space,
21
Cyberspace,
23
STEM Capability in Other Air Force Domains,
24
STEM Skills and Experience in the Acquisition Life Cycle,
24
Concept Refinement and Requirements Definition,
25
Science and Technology Development,
25
System Development and Demonstration,
25
Production and Deployment,
26
Operations and Support,
26
STEM-Degreed Personnel in the Current Air Force Workforce,
26
Current Occupational Requirements for a STEM Degree,
26
STEM-Degreed Officers Across the Workforce,
27
STEM-Degreed Civilian Personnel Across the Workforce,
29
Perceived Role of STEM Capability in Air Force Core Competencies and the Air Force Strategic Plan,
29
Findings and Recommendations,
30
References,
32
3
AIR FORCE CAREER FIELDS AND OCCUPATIONS THAT CURRENTLY REQUIRE A STEM DEGREE
34
Issues for Officer Career Fields Requiring a STEM Degree,
34
Assignments versus Authorizations,
34
Captain-to-Lieutenant Ratios,
35
Field-Grade Officer Manning,
37
Career Path for Officer Scientists and Engineers,
37
Perceptions from the Air Force STEM Communities,
38
Conclusions on Officer Manning Issues,
38
Civilian Occupational Series That Currently Require a STEM Degree,
40
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Aging of the Civilian Workforce in STEM Occupations,
40
Civilian Scientist and Engineer Career Paths,
41
Leadership Assessment of Current Workforce Adequacy,
42
Air Force Personnel Center,
42
Air Force Space Command,
42
Additional Perspectives from Senior Leaders and Managers,
43
Findings,
44
4
STEM PERSONNEL IN THE ACQUISITION WORKFORCE
45
Defining the Acquisition Workforce,
45
The Acquisition Corps and the Defense Acquisition Workforce Improvement Act,
46
DAWIA Implementation Through the APDP,
47
DAWIA and APDP Educational Requirements for the Acquisition Corps,
47
Acquisition Management Career Path and Training Flow,
48
Manning Ratio Issues,
49
Senior Officer Preparation for Acquisition Leadership,
50
Contract Labor for System Engineering, Technical Assistance, and FFRDC Support,
50
Additional Leadership Assessments of Current Acquisition Workforce Adequacy,
52
An Overview from the Director of Acquisition and Career Management,
52
Headquarters AFMC,
53
AFMC Product Centers,
54
Air Force Research Laboratory and Arnold Engineering and Development Center,
56
Findings and Recommendations,
57
Reference,
58
5
THE CURRENT AND FUTURE U.S. STEM-DEGREED WORKFORCE,
59
A Functional Profile of a Member of the STEM-Degreed Workforce,
59
Will Supply Meet Demand for the U.S. STEM-Degreed Workforce?,
60
Concern About the Educational Pipeline,
60
Declining U.S. Student Interest in Science and Mathematics,
61
Inadequate State Resources to Invest in Education,
61
Are Incentives to Enter STEM Careers Declining?,
62
Uncertainties in the Number of U.S. Citizens Earning Advanced STEM Degrees,
64
Aging of the STEM Workforce,
65
Women and Underrepresented Minorities in the STEM-Degreed Workforce,
65
Women and Minorities in the Current Workforce,
66
Increasing Women’s Role in the Future STEM Workforce,
67
Increasing Minorities’ Role in the Future STEM Workforce,
67
Programs to Increase the STEM-Degreed Workforce,
69
Programs Supported by Industry and Professional Organizations,
69
Two Successful Programs with Air Force Sponsorship,
70
Project Lead the Way,
71
Findings and Recommendations,
72
References,
72
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6
MANAGING STEM PERSONNEL TO MEET FUTURE STEM NEEDS ACROSS THE AIR FORCE
75
An Active Management System for STEM-Degreed and STEM-Cognizant Personnel,
75
Management Approaches Considered and Rejected,
76
The Need to Model Personnel Management Options,
77
The Rated Management System as a Paradigm for STEM Management,
77
STEM Management and Prior Officer Development Initiatives,
79
Meeting Future Needs for Officers with STEM Capabilities,
81
Retaining STEM-Degreed Officers,
82
Assignment of STEM-Degreed Personnel,
83
Military Promotions of STEM-Degreed Officers,
84
Options for Meeting STEM Needs with the Existing STEM-Degreed Officer Workforce,
84
Acquiring Additional Officer Assets,
87
Meeting Future Needs for STEM-Degreed Civilian Employees,
92
Managing and Retaining Existing Civilian Personnel Assets,
92
Acquiring Additional Civilian Assets,
93
Contract Support to Provide STEM-Degreed Personnel—Issues and Options,
96
SETA Support,
97
FFRDCs,
97
Appropriate Use of Contractor Support,
97
References,
98
7
THE NEED FOR ACTION
100
APPENDIXES
A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
105
B Meetings and Speakers
112
C Supporting Demographic Data
115
D Air Force STEM Workforce
119
E Length of Time to Fill Civilian Positions
132
F Applying Basic Rated Management Process and Model to STEM
136
G Scientists, Engineers, and the Air Force: An Uncertain Legacy
145
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Acronyms
ABET Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology
ACAT Acquisition Category
AEDC Arnold Engineering and Development Center
AF/A1 Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower and Personnel
AFDD Air Force Doctrine Document
AFFTC Air Force Flight Test Center
AFIT Air Force Institute of Technology
AFMC Air Force Materiel Command
AFOSR Air Force Office of Scientific Research
AFPC Air Force Personnel Center
AFPD Air Force Policy Directive
AFRAMS Air Force Rated Aircrew Management System
AFRL Air Force Research Laboratory
AFROTC Air Force Reserve Officer Training Corps
AFSB Air Force Studies Board
AFSC Air Force Specialty Code
AFSLMO Air Force Senior Leader Management Office
AFSPC Air Force Space Command
AIA Aerospace Industries Association
AIAA American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
APDP Acquisition Professional Development Program
ASC Aeronautical Systems Center
AT&L Acquisition, Technology and Logistics
BRAC Base Realignment and Closure
BTZ Below-the-Zone
CAP Critical Acquisition Position
CASPAR Computer-Aided Science Policy Analysis and Research
CONOPS Concept of Operations
CSAF Chief of Staff, Air Force
CSO Combat Systems Officer
DAL Developing Air Force Leaders
DAWIA Defense Acquisition Workforce Improvement Act
DOD Department of Defense
ESC Electronic Systems Center
FFRDC Federally Funded Research and Development Center
FMDC Force Management and Development Council
GAO U.S. Government Accountability Office
GATM Global Air Traffic Management
GOMO General Officer Management Office
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ICL Institutional Competency List
IDEAS Interactive Demographic Analysis System
IPA Intergovernmental Personnel Act
IPZ In-the-Promotion Zone
IT Information Technology
LEAD Leaders Encouraging Airmen Development
NPS Naval Postgraduate School
NRC National Research Council
NRPP Non-Rated Prioritization Plan
NSF National Science Foundation
NSPS National Security Personnel System
O&M Operations and Maintenance
OSD Office of the Secretary Defense
OTS Officer Training School
PBD Program Budget Decision
PLTW Project Lead the Way
R&D Research and Development
RDT&E Research, Development, Test and Evaluation
RMDSS Rated Management Decision Support System
ROTC Reserve Officer Training Corps
RPA remotely piloted aircraft
S&E science and engineering
SAF/AQ Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition
SAF/AQR Science, Technology, and Engineering Directorate of the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition
SAF/AQXD Air Force Director of Acquisition and Career Management
SE&I Systems Engineering and Integration
SES Senior Executive Service
SETA Systems Engineering and Technical Assistance
SL senior level
SMC Space & Missile Systems Center
SOC standard occupational classification
ST scientific and professional [level]
STARBASE Science and Technology Academies Reinforcing Basic Aviation and Space Exploration
STEM Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics
TTP Tactics, Techniques, Procedures
USAF U.S. Air Force
USAFA U.S. Air Force Academy
USC United States Code
VCSAF Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force
