Review of the St. Johns River Water Supply Impact Study: Report 1

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Review of the St. Johns River Water Supply Impact Study: Report 1

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Review of the St. Johns River Water Supply Impact Study: Report 1 Committee to Review the St. Johns River Water Supply Impact Study Water Science and Technology Board Division on Earth and Life Studies THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this study was provided by the St. Johns River Water Management District under grant SLOC-25123. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-14222-9 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 10: 0-309-14222-9 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 5th Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER SUPPLY IMPACT STUDY PATRICK L. BREZONIK, Chair, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis M. SIOBHAN FENNESSY, Kenyon College, Gambier, Ohio BEN R. HODGES, University of Texas, Austin JAMES R. KARR, University of Washington, Seattle MARK S. PETERSON, University of Southern Mississippi, Ocean Springs JAMES L. PINCKNEY, University of South Carolina, Columbia JORGE I. RESTREPO, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton ROLAND C. STEINER, Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission, Laurel, Maryland J. COURT STEVENSON, University of Maryland, Cambridge NRC STAFF LAURA J. EHLERS, Study Director STEPHANIE E. JOHNSON, Interim Study Director (February 2009 to June 2009) MICHAEL J. STOEVER, Project Assistant v

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WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD CLAIRE WELTY, Chair, University of Maryland, Baltimore County JOAN G. EHRENFELD, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey GERALD E. GALLOWAY, University of Maryland, College Park SIMON GONZALEZ, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City CHARLES N. HAAS, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania KENNETH R. HERD, Southwest Florida Water Management District, Brooksville JAMES M. HUGHES, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia THEODORE L. HULLAR, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York KIMBERLY L. JONES, Howard University, Washington, DC G. TRACY MEHAN, The Cadmus Group, Inc., Arlington, Virginia DAVID H. MOREAU, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill THOMAS O’ ROURKE, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York DONALD I. SIEGEL, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of California, Irvine HAME M. WATT, Independent Consultant, Washington, DC JAMES L. WESCOAT, JR., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge STAFF STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Scholar LAURA J. EHLERS, Senior Program Officer STEPHANIE E. JOHNSON, Senior Program Officer LAURA E. HELSABECK, Associate Program Officer M. JEANNE AQUILINO, Financial and Administrative Associate ELLEN A. DE GUZMAN, Senior Program Associate ANITA A. HALL, Senior Program Associate MICHAEL J. STOEVER, Senior Program Assistant STEPHEN T. RUSSELL, Senior Program Assistant vi

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: EMILY S. BERNHARDT, Duke University MARK M. BRINSON, East Carolina University WENDY D. GRAHAM, University of Florida MICHAEL C. KAVANAUGH, Malcolm Pirnie, Inc. JUDITH L. MEYER, University of Georgia ERNST B. PEEBLES, University of South Florida Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Jerome B. Gilbert. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vii

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 10 SJRWMD Water Resources Planning, 13 Water Supply Impact Study, 15 NRC Study and Report Roadmap, 16 2 ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER SUPPLY IMPACT STUDY: 18 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES Study Focus, 19 Need for Integration, 20 Water and Nutrient Budgets, 24 Dewatering of Floodplains and Wetlands, 25 Summary, 26 3 HYDRODYNAMIC AND HYDROLOGIC MODELING 27 Surface Water Hydrodynamics and Hydrology, 27 Groundwater Hydrology, 35 4 ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENTS 43 Biogeochemistry, 43 Plankton, Nutrients, and TMDLs, 47 Benthos, 51 Littoral Zone, 54 Fish, 57 Wetlands and Wetland-Dependent Species, 64 REFERENCES 72 APPENDIXES A Acronyms 80 B Biographical Sketches for Committee to Review the St. Johns River Water 82 Supply Impact Study ix

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