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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
avoiding technology surprise for tomorrow’s warfighter
a symposium report
Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This is a report of work supported by contract HHM40205D0011 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
Cover: Front cover design by Shannon Thomas. Top image courtesy of the United States Department of Defense; bottom image courtesy of Digital Vision/Flying Colours Ltd.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14228-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14228-8
Limited copies are available from:
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
National Research Council
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-3118
Additional copies are available from:
The National Academies Press
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Lockbox 285 Washington, DC 20001 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
COMMITTEE FOR THE SYMPOSIUM ON AVOIDING TECHNOLOGY SURPRISE FOR TOMORROW’S WARFIGHTER
RUTH A. DAVID, Chair,
ANSER, Arlington, Virginia
STEVEN R.J. BRUECK,
University of New Mexico
ANN N. CAMPBELL,
Sandia National Laboratories
STEPHEN W. DREW,
Drew Solutions, Inc., Summitt, New Jersey
JOHN GANNON,
BAE Systems
SHARON C. GLOTZER,
University of Michigan
CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN,
Wayne State University
LESLIE GREENGARD,
Courant Institute, New York University
DIANE E. GRIFFIN,
Johns Hopkins University
J.C. HERZ,
Batchtags, Inc.
J. JEROME HOLTON,
Tauri Group
FREDERICK R. LOPEZ,
Raytheon Company
GILMAN G. LOUIE,
Alsop Louie Partners, San Francisco
JULIE J.C.H. RYAN,
George Washington University
JAMES B. SMITH,
Raytheon Company
DIANNE S. WILEY,
The Boeing Company
Staff
MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead DEPS Board Director
DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director
CARTER W. FORD, Program Officer
LISA COCKRELL, Associate Program Officer
ERIN C. FITZGERALD, Associate Program Officer
SARAH CAPOTE, Research Associate
SHANNON THOMAS, Program Associate
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
Preface
The symposium described in this report represents a new venue for the ongoing engagement between the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) TIGER (Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review) Standing Committee, the scientific and technical intelligence (S&TI) community, and the consumers of S&TI products. TIGER’s sponsor—the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) Defense Warning Office (DWO)—described this symposium as the first annual gathering of this type, intending that both the personal interactions that occurred throughout the symposium, as well as this report and similar products from future sessions, would help drive systemic strengthening of U.S. S&TI capabilities.
We wish to express our appreciation to the members of the Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter for their thoughtful contributions to the symposium discussions as well as to the generation of this report. We also are grateful for the active participation of many members of the defense community in this symposium, especially those contributing to the discussion as panelists and invited speakers, as well as to the members of the S&TI community for their support. The committee would also like to express sincere appreciation for the support and assistance of the NRC staff, including Michael Clarke, Daniel Talmage, Carter Ford, Lisa Cockrell, Erin Fitzgerald, Sarah Capote, and Shannon Thomas.
Ruth A. David, Chair
Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Jim Carafano, The Heritage Foundation,
Natalie W. Crawford (NAE), RAND Corporation,
Lawrence A. Delaney, Titan Corporation (retired),
Alan H. Epstein (NAE), Pratt & Whitney,
Robert J. Hermann (NAE), Global Technology Partners, LLC,
Alton D. Romig, Jr. (NAE), Sandia National Laboratories, and
Robert M. Shea, Smartronix, Inc.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Chris G. Whipple (NAE), ENVIRON. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
Contents
1
MOTIVATION FOR THE SYMPOSIUM
1
Symposium Objective,
2
Symposium Participants,
4
Setting the Scene,
4
This Report,
8
References,
8
2
CURRENT TECHNOLOGY SURPRISE PROBLEMS
9
Defining Technology Surprise,
9
Areas of Concern,
10
Process-Specific Concerns About Technology Surprise,
11
Use of Information in New Ways,
12
Specific Areas of Concern for Technology Surprise,
13
Sources of Future Technology Surprise,
13
Timing,
15
Technology Commoditization,
16
The Stages of Surprise,
16
Concluding Thoughts,
16
3
SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE
17
Topics Discussed,
17
S&TI Resources,
17
Making S&TI Actionable for COCOMs,
18
S&TI Production and Delivery,
19
Steps to Prevent Technology Surprise,
20
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
4
DISCUSSIONS WITH INVITED SPEAKERS
22
The Honorable Dennis Blair,
22
Particular Areas of Technology to Watch,
23
Additional Discussion,
23
The Honorable Jacques Gansler,
24
Additional Discussion,
25
Mr. Robert Hegstrom,
25
Additional Discussion,
27
5
UNDERLYING THEMES
29
APPENDIXES
A Workshop Agenda and Panelists
33
B Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
35
C Participating Organizations
44
D Opening Session Charts
46
E Questions Presented to Panels
51
F Biographical Sketches of Invited Speakers
53
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
Acronyms and Abbreviations
AT&L Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics
COCOM combatant command
DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
DIA Defense Intelligence Agency
DNI Director of National Intelligence
DOD Department of Defense
DTWS Defense Technology Warning System
DWO Defense Warning Office
IC intelligence community
IED improvised explosive device
ISR intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
ITAR International Traffic in Arms Regulations
(US)JFCOM United States Joint Forces Command
JWICS Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communication System
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NRC National Research Council
NSF National Science Foundation
ODUSD Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense
ONR Office of Naval Research
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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report
OUSDI Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, Intelligence
Q&A question and answer
R&D research and development
S&T science and technology
S&TI scientific and technical intelligence
SIPRNet Secret Internet Protocol Router Network
USSOCOM United States Special Operations Command
TIGER Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review
