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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
GLOBAL SOURCES OF LOCAL POLLUTION
An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
Committee on the Significance of International Transport of Air Pollutants
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under contract number EP-D-08-0530. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the intelligence community or any of its sub-agencies.
International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-14401-8
International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-14401-9
Library of Congress Control Number: 2009941434
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
COMMITTEE ON THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT OF AIR POLLUTANTS
CHARLES E. KOLB (Chair),
Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
TAMI BOND,
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
GREGORY R. CARMICHAEL,
University of Iowa, Iowa City
KRISTIE L. EBI,
IPCC Working Group II Technical Support Unit, Stanford, California
DAVID P. EDWARDS,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
HENRY FUELBERG,
Florida State University, Tallahassee
MAE S. GUSTIN,
University of Nevada, Reno
JIMING HAO,
Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
DANIEL J. JACOB,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
DANIEL A. JAFFE,
University of Washington, Bothell
SONIA KREIDENWEIS,
Colorado State University, Ft. Collins
KATHARINE S. LAW,
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France
MICHAEL J. PRATHER,
University of California, Irvine
STACI L. MASSEY SIMONICH,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
MARK H. THIEMENS,
University of California, San Diego
BASC Liaison
KIMBERLY PRATHER,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
NRC Staff
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Officer
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
KAMWETI MUTU, Research Associate
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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND (Chair),
University of California, Irvine
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI JR.,
University of Maryland, College Park
RICHARD CARBONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
WALTER F. DABBERDT,
Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado
KIRSTIN DOW,
University of South Carolina, Columbia
GREG S. FORBES,
The Weather Channel Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
ISAAC HELD,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
ARTHUR LEE,
Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT,
University of Chicago, Illinois
KIMBERLY PRATHER,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
KIRK R. SMITH,
University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,
Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins
XUBIN ZENG,
University of Arizona, Tucson
Ex Officio Members
GERALD A. MEEHL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
IAN KRAUCUNAS, Senior Program Officer
CURTIS H. MARSHALL, Senior Program Officer
MARTHA MCCONNELL, Associate Program Officer
TOBY WARDEN, Associate Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
KATIE WELLER, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
RICARDO PAYNE, Program Assistant
JANEISE STURDIVANT, Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
ROGENE F. HENDERSON (Chair),
Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM
RAMO N ALVAREZ,
Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX
TINA BAHADORI,
American Chemistry Council, Arlington, VA
JOHN M. BALBUS,
George Washington University, Washington, DC
MICHAEL J. BRADLEY,
M.J. Bradley & Associates, Concord, MA
DALLAS BURTRAW,
Resources for the Future, Washington, DC
JAMES S. BUS,
Dow Chemical Company, Midland, MI
JONATHAN Z. CANNON,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
GAIL CHARNLEY,
HealthRisk Strategies, Washington, DC
RUTH DEFRIES,
Columbia University, New York, NY
RICHARD A. DENISON,
Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, DC
H. CHRISTOPHER FREY,
North Carolina State University, Raleigh
J. PAUL GILMAN,
Covanta Energy Corporation, Fairfield, NJ
RICHARD M. GOLD,
Holland & Knight, LLP, Washington, DC
LYNN R. GOLDMAN,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
JUDITH A. GRAHAM (retired),
Pittsboro, NC
HOWARD HU,
University of Michigan, Ann Harbor
ROGER E. KASPERSON,
Clark University, Worcester, MA
TERRY L. MEDLEY,
E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company, Wilmington, DE
DANNY D. REIBLE,
University of Texas, Austin
JOSEPH V. RODRICKS,
ENVIRON International Corporation, Arlington, VA
ROBERT F. SAWYER,
University of California, Berkeley
KIMBERLY M. THOMPSON,
Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA
MARK J. UTELL,
University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY
NRC Staff
JAMES J. REISA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Scholar
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Officer for Environmental Studies
EILEEN N. ABT, Senior Program Officer for Risk Analysis
SUSAN N.J. MARTEL, Senior Program Officer for Toxicology
KULBIR S. BAKSHI, Senior Program Officer
ELLEN K. MANTUS, Senior Program Officer
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Senior Editor
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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
BETSY ANCKER-JOHNSON, General Motors Corporation (retired), Austin, Texas
ELLIOT ATLAS, University of Miami, Florida
RICHARD BURNETT, Health Canada, Ottawa
ELVIN HEIBERG III, Heiberg Associates. Inc., Arlington, Virginia
RUDOLPH HUSAR, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri
QINBIN LI, Univeristy of California, Los Angeles
ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
DENISE MAUZERALL, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
NICOLA PIRRONE, CNR-Institute for Atmosperhic Pollution, Monterotondo, Italy
YANNIS YORTSOS, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William Randel, National Center for Atmospheric Research. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
We offer our sincere thanks to the staff who supported the work of this committee, including our study director, Laurie Geller, and our Program Associate, Rob Greenway. We also thank the many people who offered direct input to the committee with meeting presentations and personal, phone, or email discussions, including: Terry Keating, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; John Bachmann, Vision Air Consulting; Dan Reifsnyder and Susan Gardener, U.S. Department of State; Bryan Wood-Thomas, American Shipping Council; Joe Prospero, University of Miami; Arlene Fiore and Hiram Levy, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Hongbin Yu, Drew Shindell, and Jim Crawford, National Aeronautics and Space Administration; A.R. Ravishankara, NOAA; Denise Mauzerall, Princeton University; Chris Shaver, Colleen Flanagan, and Ellen Porter, National Park Service; Kim Prather, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; and Sherwood Rowland, University of California, Irvine.
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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
Contents
SUMMARY
1
1
INTRODUCTION
11
International Impacts on Local and Regional Air Pollution,
11
Motivations for Concern,
15
Long-Range Transport of Pollution,
18
Long-Range Transport Policy Context,
28
Report Organization,
33
2
OZONE
35
General Introduction on Ozone,
35
Changing Baseline O3 and Impact on Air Quality Standards,
40
Direct Observation of Long-Range Transport of O3 and Precursors,
44
Modeling and Attribution of O3 from Global Sources,
49
Health Impacts of Imported O3,
56
The Future—Changing Climate and Emissions,
58
Summary of Key Findings and Recommendations,
62
3
PARTICULATE MATTER
67
The Complex Nature of Particulate Matter,
67
Sources of Particulate Matter,
70
Particulate Matter Impacts,
71
The Regulatory Context for Control of PM,
76
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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
Key PM Transport Patterns and Effects on Surface Concentrations,
78
Modeling and Attribution of PM Transport and Trends,
81
Future Projections of Factors Influencing PM Surface Concentrations,
87
Key Findings and Recommendations,
90
4
MERCURY
97
Atmospheric Mercury Primer,
97
Atmospheric Mercury Concentrations,
100
Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Mercury,
101
Atmospheric Mercury Deposition,
105
Relationship Between Mercury Deposition and Ecosystem Impacts,
106
Source Attribution for Hg Deposited to the United States,
107
Key Findings and Recommendations,
109
5
PERSISTENT ORGANIC POLLUTANTS
113
Sources and Global Regulatory Status,
113
Toxicological Relevance,
115
Atmospheric Fate and Intermedia Transport,
116
Emission Inventories,
117
U.S. Inflow and Outflow of POPs,
117
Existing POP Modeling Capabilities,
119
New POPs,
121
Climate Change and POPs,
121
Key Findings and Recommendations,
122
6
CROSSCUTTING ISSUES AND SYNTHESIS
125
Crosscutting Issues,
125
Strengthening Integrated Systems for Tracking and Attribution of Long-Range Transport of Pollution,
139
Summary of Key Messages,
146
REFERENCES
151
APPENDIXES
A
COMMITTEE SPONSORS, STATEMENT OF TASK, AND SCHEDULE
191
B
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF ATMPOSPHERIC TRANSPORT MECHANISMS
193
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Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States
C
OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS USED FOR LONG-RANGE POLLUTION TRANSPORT STUDIES
213
D
COMMITTEE MEMBERSHIP
223
E
ACRONYMS AND INITIALISMS
231
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