GLOBAL SOURCES OF LOCAL POLLUTION

An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States

Committee on the Significance of International Transport of Air Pollutants

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
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Global SourceS of local pollution An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States Committee on the Significance of International Transport of Air Pollutants Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Govern- ing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropri- ate balance. This study was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under contract number EP-D-08-0530. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recom- mendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not neces- sarily reflect the views of the intelligence community or any of its sub-agencies. International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-14401-8 International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-14401-9 Library of Congress Control Number: 2009941434 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap. edu. Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general wel- fare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is presi- dent of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT OF AIR POLLUTANTS CHARLES E. KOLB (Chair), Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts TAMI BOND, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign GREGORY R. CARMICHAEL, University of Iowa, Iowa City KRISTIE L. EBI, IPCC Working Group II Technical Support Unit, Stanford, California DAVID P. EDWARDS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado HENRY FUELBERG, Florida State University, Tallahassee MAE S. GUSTIN, University of Nevada, Reno JIMING HAO, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China DANIEL J. JACOB, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts DANIEL A. JAFFE, University of Washington, Bothell SONIA KREIDENWEIS, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins KATHARINE S. LAW, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France MICHAEL J. PRATHER, University of California, Irvine STACI L. MASSEY SIMONICH, Oregon State University, Corvallis MARK H. THIEMENS, University of California, San Diego BASC Liaison KIMBERLY PRATHER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California NRC Staff LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Officer ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate KAMWETI MUTU, Research Associate 

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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND (Chair), University of California, Irvine ROSINA M. BIERBAUM, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI JR., University of Maryland, College Park RICHARD CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado WALTER F. DABBERDT, Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia GREG S. FORBES, The Weather Channel Inc., Atlanta, Georgia ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, University of Chicago, Illinois KIMBERLY PRATHER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley JOHN T. SNOW, University of Oklahoma, Norman THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR, Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson Ex Officio Members GERALD A. MEEHL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer IAN KRAUCUNAS, Senior Program Officer CURTIS H. MARSHALL, Senior Program Officer MARTHA MCCONNELL, Associate Program Officer TOBY WARDEN, Associate Program Officer RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator KATIE WELLER, Research Associate ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant RICARDO PAYNE, Program Assistant JANEISE STURDIVANT, Program Assistant SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate i

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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY ROGENE F. HENDERSON (Chair), Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM RAMON ALVAREZ, Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX TINA BAHADORI, American Chemistry Council, Arlington, VA JOHN M. BALBUS, George Washington University, Washington, DC MICHAEL J. BRADLEY, M.J. Bradley & Associates, Concord, MA DALLAS BURTRAW, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC JAMES S. BUS, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, MI JONATHAN Z. CANNON, University of Virginia, Charlottesville GAIL CHARNLEY, HealthRisk Strategies, Washington, DC RUTH DEFRIES, Columbia University, New York, NY RICHARD A. DENISON, Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, DC H. CHRISTOPHER FREY, North Carolina State University, Raleigh J. PAUL GILMAN, Covanta Energy Corporation, Fairfield, NJ RICHARD M. GOLD, Holland & Knight, LLP, Washington, DC LYNN R. GOLDMAN, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD JUDITH A. GRAHAM (retired), Pittsboro, NC HOWARD HU, University of Michigan, Ann Harbor ROGER E. KASPERSON, Clark University, Worcester, MA TERRY L. MEDLEY, E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company, Wilmington, DE DANNY D. REIBLE, University of Texas, Austin JOSEPH V. RODRICKS, ENVIRON International Corporation, Arlington, VA ROBERT F. SAWYER, University of California, Berkeley KIMBERLY M. THOMPSON, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA MARK J. UTELL, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY NRC Staff JAMES J. REISA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Scholar RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Officer for Environmental Studies EILEEN N. ABT, Senior Program Officer for Risk Analysis SUSAN N.J. MARTEL, Senior Program Officer for Toxicology KULBIR S. BAKSHI, Senior Program Officer ELLEN K. MANTUS, Senior Program Officer RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Senior Editor ii

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Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: BETSY ANCKER-JOHNSON, General Motors Corporation (retired), Austin, Texas ELLIOT ATLAS, University of Miami, Florida RICHARD BURNETT, Health Canada, Ottawa ELVIN HEIBERG III, Heiberg Associates. Inc., Arlington, Virginia RUDOLPH HUSAR, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri QINBIN LI, Univeristy of California, Los Angeles ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California DENISE MAUZERALL, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey NICOLA PIRRONE, CNR-Institute for Atmosperhic Pollution, Monterotondo, Italy YANNIS YORTSOS, University of Southern California, Los Angeles ix

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x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William Randel, National Center for Atmospheric Research. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an indepen- dent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institu- tional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. We offer our sincere thanks to the staff who supported the work of this committee, including our study director, Laurie Geller, and our Program Associate, Rob Greenway. We also thank the many people who offered direct input to the committee with meeting presentations and personal, phone, or email discussions, including: Terry Keating, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; John Bachmann, Vision Air Consulting; Dan Reifsnyder and Susan Gardener, U.S. Department of State; Bryan Wood-Thomas, American Shipping Council; Joe Prospero, University of Miami; Arlene Fiore and Hiram Levy, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion (NOAA)/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Hongbin Yu, Drew Shindell, and Jim Crawford, National Aeronautics and Space Administra- tion; A.R. Ravishankara, NOAA; Denise Mauzerall, Princeton University; Chris Shaver, Colleen Flanagan, and Ellen Porter, National Park Service; Kim Prather, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; and Sherwood Rowland, University of California, Irvine.

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 11 International Impacts on Local and Regional Air Pollution, 11 Motivations for Concern, 15 Long-Range Transport of Pollution, 18 Long-Range Transport Policy Context, 28 Report Organization, 33 2 OZONE 35 General Introduction on Ozone, 35 Changing Baseline O3 and Impact on Air Quality Standards, 40 Direct Observation of Long-Range Transport of O3 and Precursors, 44 Modeling and Attribution of O3 from Global Sources, 49 Health Impacts of Imported O3, 56 The Future—Changing Climate and Emissions, 58 Summary of Key Findings and Recommendations, 62 3 PARTICULATE MATTER 67 The Complex Nature of Particulate Matter, 67 Sources of Particulate Matter, 70 Particulate Matter Impacts, 71 The Regulatory Context for Control of PM, 76 xi

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xii CONTENTS Key PM Transport Patterns and Effects on Surface Concentrations, 78 Modeling and Attribution of PM Transport and Trends, 81 Future Projections of Factors Influencing PM Surface Concentrations, 87 Key Findings and Recommendations, 90 4 MERCURY 97 Atmospheric Mercury Primer, 97 Atmospheric Mercury Concentrations, 100 Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Mercury, 101 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition, 105 Relationship Between Mercury Deposition and Ecosystem Impacts, 106 Source Attribution for Hg Deposited to the United States, 107 Key Findings and Recommendations, 109 5 PERSISTENT ORGANIC POLLUTANTS 113 Sources and Global Regulatory Status, 113 Toxicological Relevance, 115 Atmospheric Fate and Intermedia Transport, 116 Emission Inventories, 117 U.S. Inflow and Outflow of POPs, 117 Existing POP Modeling Capabilities, 119 New POPs, 121 Climate Change and POPs, 121 Key Findings and Recommendations, 122 6 CROSSCUTTING ISSUES AND SYNTHESIS 125 Crosscutting Issues, 125 Strengthening Integrated Systems for Tracking and Attribution of Long-Range Transport of Pollution, 139 Summary of Key Messages, 146 REFERENCES 151 APPENDIXES A COMMITTEE SPONSORS, STATEMENT OF TASK, AND SCHEDULE 191 B TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF ATMPOSPHERIC TRANSPORT MECHANISMS 193

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xiii CONTENTS C OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS USED FOR LONG-RANGE POLLUTION TRANSPORT STUDIES 213 D COMMITTEE MEMBERSHIP 223 E ACRONYMS AND INITIALISMS 231

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