Year

Base Case

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Percent change in fuel use in 2050 from base case

 

 

−1.3% to −1.7%

−8.4% to −11.0%

Change in fuel use from base case (in billions of gallons)

2050

 

−1.5 to −2.5

−10 to −16.9

Percent change in CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050

 

+0.9% to +28.2%

−0.4% to +26%

 

CO2 emissions (millions of metric tons)

2000

1,006

1,006

 

2050 (1)c

1,015–1,290

1,002–1,268

 

 

+4.5% to +34.3%

 

−4.3% to +19.5%

2000

1,006

 

1,006

2050 (2)d

1,051–1,351

 

963–1,202

Percent change in CO2 emissions from base case

 

 

−1.3% to −1.7%

−8.4% to −11.0%

Change in CO2 emissions from base case (millions of metric tons)

2050

 

−13 to −22

−88 to −149

aIn Scenario 1, VMT per household in new noncompact developments is assumed to be 8.4 percent higher (12 percent × .70) than the average for existing households, or 22,967 (21,187 × 1.084) VMT per household per year. In Scenario 2, VMT per household in new noncompact developments is assumed to be 17.5 percent higher (25 percent × .70) than the average for existing households, or 24,895 (21,187 × 1.175) VMT per household per year.

bIn Scenario 1, VMT per household in new compact developments is assumed to be 12 percent less than the baseline of new noncompact development households, or 20,211 (22,967 × .88). In Scenario 2, VMT per household in new compact developments is assumed to be 25 percent less than the baseline of new noncompact development households, or 18,671 (24,895 × .75).

cThe baseline projections for 2050 reflect the assumptions described in Footnote a.

dThe baseline projections for 2050 reflect the assumptions described in Footnote b.



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