Driving and the Built Environment: The Effects of Compact Development on Motorized Travel, Energy Use, and CO2 Emissions -- Special Report 298

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Table of Contents
Front Matter R1-R16
Summary 1-14
1 Introduction 15-30
2 Trends in Development Patterns 31-49
3 Impacts of Land Use Patterns on Vehicle Miles Traveled: Evidence from the Literature 50-105
4 Future Residential Development Patterns 106-143
5 Potential Effects of More Compact Development Patterns on Vehicle Miles Traveled, Energy Use, and CO2 Emissions 144-199
6 Recommendations 200-207
A Study on the Relationships Among Development Patterns, Vehicle Miles Traveled, and Energy Consumption 208-209
B Commissioned Papers and Authors 210-210
C Analysis of Density Assumptions and Feasibility of Committee Scenarios 211-231
Study Committee Biographical Information 232-240

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	Year	Base Case	Scenario 1	Scenario 2
Percent change in fuel use in 2050 from base case			−1.3% to −1.7%	−8.4% to −11.0%
Change in fuel use from base case (in billions of gallons)	2050		−1.5 to −2.5	−10 to −16.9
Percent change in CO₂ emissions between 2000 and 2050		+0.9% to +28.2%	−0.4% to +26%
CO₂ emissions (millions of metric tons)	2000	1,006	1,006
	2050 (1)^c	1,015–1,290	1,002–1,268
		+4.5% to +34.3%		−4.3% to +19.5%
	2000	1,006		1,006
	2050 (2)^d	1,051–1,351		963–1,202
Percent change in CO₂ emissions from base case			−1.3% to −1.7%	−8.4% to −11.0%
Change in CO₂ emissions from base case (millions of metric tons)	2050		−13 to −22	−88 to −149
^aIn Scenario 1, VMT per household in new noncompact developments is assumed to be 8.4 percent higher (12 percent × .70) than the average for existing households, or 22,967 (21,187 × 1.084) VMT per household per year. In Scenario 2, VMT per household in new noncompact developments is assumed to be 17.5 percent higher (25 percent × .70) than the average for existing households, or 24,895 (21,187 × 1.175) VMT per household per year. ^bIn Scenario 1, VMT per household in new compact developments is assumed to be 12 percent less than the baseline of new noncompact development households, or 20,211 (22,967 × .88). In Scenario 2, VMT per household in new compact developments is assumed to be 25 percent less than the baseline of new noncompact development households, or 18,671 (24,895 × .75). ^cThe baseline projections for 2050 reflect the assumptions described in Footnote a. ^dThe baseline projections for 2050 reflect the assumptions described in Footnote b.

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