Advancing the Science of Climate Change

BOX 9.2

National Marine Sanctuary

Ocean ecosystems face growing threats globally from overfishing, habitat damage, pollution, and especially acidification (Halpern et al., 2008). As a result, the persistence of several marine species is at risk, and ecosystem services provided by intact coastal ecosystems could be compromised. Compared to the land, a minute fraction of the sea is set aside for protection. In response to growing threats, a number of nations, including the United States, are establishing networks of new marine protected areas (MPAs) with special protections (Airame et al., 2003; Fernandes et al., 2005). In the United States, the largest network of MPAs is being established along the coast of California, where dozens of new protected areas are currently being designed and implemented.

Although MPAs can be dramatically successful at restoring depleted ocean ecosystems (Lester et al., 2009), many questions remain:

Will the effectiveness of MPAs be compromised by climate change, ocean acidification and/or the migration of marine species outside the boundaries of protected areas?
MPA network design is based on where species occur today, not where they will be driven by future climate shifts—will the expected conservation gains from MPA networks go unrealized as the seascape shifts?
Alternatively, could large networks of MPAs along entire coastlines provide protected havens to aid species driven poleward by shifting climate?
Does uncertainty about future climate change increase the need for MPAs as a hedging strategy?

ogy, vegetation dynamics, and disturbances such as fire need to be further developed and included in advanced Earth systems models.

Assess the potential of land and ocean ecosystems to limit or buffer impacts of climate change. How can specific land uses (including managed and unmanaged forests and grasslands, agricultural systems, fisheries, urban systems, and aquatic systems) be managed for provisioning services as well as for their effects on GHG emissions, carbon storage, reflectivity, and evapotranspiration? What ecosystem management strategies can provide co-benefits that meet multiple goals, including carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, and watershed protection? To address these questions, new tools and approaches need to be developed for evaluating different land and ocean uses for their potential in helping to limit the magnitude of climate change. Such research needs to address the trade-offs between alternative land management options, including economic costs and impacts on ecosystem services that are difficult

Table of Contents

Front Matter R1-R22

Summary 1-16

Part I 17-18

1 Introduction: Science for Understanding and Responding to Climate Change 19-26

2 What We Know About Climate Change and Its Interactions with People and Ecosystems 27-82

3 A New Era of Climate Change Research 83-90

4 Integrative Themes for Climate Change Research 91-150

5 Recommendations for Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change Research 151-180

Part II: Technical Chapters 181-182

6 Changes in the Climate System 183-234

7 Sea Level Rise and the Coastal Environment 235-256

8 Freshwater Resources 257-270

9 Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity 271-290

10 Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Production 291-308

11 Public Health 309-322

12 Cities and the Built Environment 323-332

13 Transportation 333-348

14 Energy Supply and Use 349-376

15 Solar Radiation Management 377-388

16 National and Human Security 389-400

17 Designing, Implementing, and Evaluating Climate Policies 401-420

References 421-474

Appendix A: America's Climate Choices: Membership Lists 475-478

Appendix B: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change: Statement of Task 479-480

Appendix C: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change: Biographical Sketches 481-490

Appendix D: Uncertainty Terminology 491-492

Appendix E: The United States Global Change Research Program 493-496

Appendix F: Geoengineering Options to Respond to Climate Change: Steps to Establish a Research Agenda 497-500

Appendix G: Acronyms and Initialisms 501-504