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Advancing the Science of Climate Change (2010)
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC)

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. "2 What We Know About Climate Change and Its Interactions with People and Ecosystems." Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2010.

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Advancing the Science of Climate Change
FIGURE 2.1 The greenhouse effect. SOURCE: Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences.

FIGURE 2.1 The greenhouse effect. SOURCE: Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences.

fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—for energy. The increasing concentrations of GHGs are amplifying the natural greenhouse effect, causing Earth’s surface temperature to rise. Human activities have also increased the number of aerosols (small liquid droplets or particles suspended in the atmosphere). Aerosols have a wide range of environmental effects, but on average they increase the amount of sunlight that is reflected back to space, a cooling effect that offsets some, but not all, of the warming induced by increasing GHG concentrations.

Earth Is Warming

There are many indications—both direct and indirect—that the climate system is warming. The most fundamental of these are thermometer measurements, enough of which have been collected over both land and sea to estimate changes in global average surface temperature since the mid- to late 19th century. A number of inde-

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Front Matter (R1-R22)
Summary (1-16)
Part I (17-18)
1 Introduction: Science for Understanding and Responding to Climate Change (19-26)
2 What We Know About Climate Change and Its Interactions with People and Ecosystems (27-82)
3 A New Era of Climate Change Research (83-90)
4 Integrative Themes for Climate Change Research (91-150)
5 Recommendations for Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change Research (151-180)
Part II: Technical Chapters (181-182)
6 Changes in the Climate System (183-234)
7 Sea Level Rise and the Coastal Environment (235-256)
8 Freshwater Resources (257-270)
9 Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity (271-290)
10 Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Production (291-308)
11 Public Health (309-322)
12 Cities and the Built Environment (323-332)
13 Transportation (333-348)
14 Energy Supply and Use (349-376)
15 Solar Radiation Management (377-388)
16 National and Human Security (389-400)
17 Designing, Implementing, and Evaluating Climate Policies (401-420)
References (421-474)
Appendix A: America's Climate Choices: Membership Lists (475-478)
Appendix B: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change: Statement of Task (479-480)
Appendix C: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change: Biographical Sketches (481-490)
Appendix D: Uncertainty Terminology (491-492)
Appendix E: The United States Global Change Research Program (493-496)
Appendix F: Geoengineering Options to Respond to Climate Change: Steps to Establish a Research Agenda (497-500)
Appendix G: Acronyms and Initialisms (501-504)