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Terminology for Describing Confidence About Facts
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Very high confidence
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At least 9 out of 10 chance of being correct
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High confidence
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About 8 out of 10 chance
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Medium confidence
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About 5 out of 10 chance
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Low confidence
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About 2 out of 10 chance
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Very low confidence
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Less than 1 out of 10 chance
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Terminology for Describing Likelihood of an Outcome
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Virtually certain
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More than 99 chances out of 100
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Extremely likely
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More than 95 chances out of 100
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Very likely
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More than 90 chances out of 100
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Likely
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More than 65 chances out of 100
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More likely than not
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More than 50 chances out of 100
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About as likely as not
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Between 33 and 66 chances out of 100
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Unlikely
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Less than 33 chances out of 100
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Very unlikely
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Less than 10 chances out of 100
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Extremely unlikely
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Less than 5 chances out of 100
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Exceptionally unlikely
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Less than 1 chance out of 100
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SOURCE: IPCC (2007a).
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