Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter.
Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page 203
CHAPTER SEVEN
Major Scientific and
Technological Advances Needed
to Promote Effective Adaptation
to Climate Change
A
merica’s climate choices with regard to adaptation are undermined by the fact
that the nation has a limited base of adaptation knowledge, tools, and options
related specifically to climate change for two reasons. First, in most cases, evi-
dence of impacts of climate change is just beginning to emerge, so the effectiveness
of adaptation actions cannot yet be evaluated. While options available to the nation
for adapting to the impacts of climate change have in many cases been identified,
the scientific understanding of the effectiveness of these options is lacking, given that
climate change is likely to pose challenges beyond those that have been addressed in
the past as adaptations to climate variability. Thus, the need for scientific and techno-
logical advances is pervasive across the field of climate change adaptation research.
Second, climate change adaptation research to date has not been a national priority
(NRC, 2009a). In fact, adaptation has been such a low priority that “adaptation” does
not appear in any current metrics for reporting climate change research (e.g., not in
the budgets of the National Science Foundation and not in the budget summaries in
the annual Our Changing Planet report of the U.S. Global Change Research Program
[USGCRP] Climate Change Science Program). Recently, examination of the Climate
Change Science Program has shown that investment in “human dimensions research,”
including but not mainly oriented toward adaptation, and nonresearch expenditures
on decision support represent about 2 percent of the total climate change research ef-
fort (NRC, 2009c). Investment in adaptation research is only a fraction of that 2 percent.
Science and technology advances are therefore needed to respond to many questions
now being asked by decision makers—questions related both to potentials for self-
initiated adaptation by households and businesses and to likely needs for planned
adaptation at all levels of our government and society. To realize the potential of ad-
aptation, scientific and technological advances (including both near- and longer-term
fundamental research) are needed to support adaptation analysis and assessment, to
0
OCR for page 204
A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E
identify and develop adaptation options, and to strengthen adaptation management
and implementation.
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOgy ADvANCES TO SuPPORT
ADAPTATION ANALySIS AND ASSESSMENT
The first step in adapting is understanding a system’s vulnerability to climate change
impacts and assessing adaptation options to address these vulnerabilities. Advances
in science and technology of several kinds are needed to support such analysis and
assessments.
Improved Information
Science and technology advances to support longterm adaptive risk management
regarding climate change impacts. Responding to climate change adaptively requires
a continuing flow of information about impacts that are emerging and impacts that
are being projected with a higher level of confidence (also see “Observing Systems”),
and it requires a continuing flow of information about experiences with adaptation
actions. Moreover, it requires effective mechanisms for ensuring that the information
reaches adaptation decision makers in forms that are useful to them (ACC: Informing
an Effective Response to Climate Change; NRC 2010a).
Tools to create placebased geospatial assessments of vulnerability that identify and
assess especially vulnerable areas, sectors, and groups as well as appropriate adaptive
responses (Chapters 2 and 3). For example, a redefinition of flood-event return periods
is needed to improve the geospatial resolution of this hazard in the context of climate
change and contribute to adaptation planning.
Improved information about climate change impacts under different assumptions about
multiple driving forces and stressors (Chapter 2). For example, Hurricane Katrina and
other recent experiences with natural hazards have demonstrated that vulnerabili-
ties are shaped by social and economic conditions as well as by weather or climate
phenomena, and the recent report Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
(USGCRP, 2009) shows that many long-term vulnerabilities are shaped by population
size and distribution. Research is needed to match climate change impact projections
with other driving forces of vulnerabilities, including technological and institutional
change.
0
OCR for page 205
Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed
Improved understanding of Impact Thresholds
Advancing understanding of thresholds or tipping points for climate change impacts,
which in turn helps to determine the limits of adaptation (Chapter 2). To illustrate this
challenge, one could envision the case where the projected rise in sea level along
the U.S. Gulf Coast by 2050 (reflecting a combination of actual sea level rise and land
subsidence; CCSP, 2008a) would be so large that sea walls and other adaptation ef-
forts may not be sufficient to protect the region’s traditional ways of life. Faced with
either abrupt or gradual change, localities and sectors face the possibility that—at
some level and/or rate of emerging climate change impacts—current human and
environmental systems may become unsustainable. This phenomenon is poorly
understood, but it is critically important for adaptation planning for relatively severe
climate change scenarios. Understanding possible tipping points can help to inform
adaptation choices to avoid reaching such points; it can help to design observational
strategies and programs to monitor system changes to provide early warning of an
impending threshold in time to consider adaptation options; and in some cases it can
clarify limits of adaptation, perhaps pointing to the need for structural changes such
as voluntary relocation inland.
Improved Knowledge of behavioral Dimensions of Adaptation
Human behavior that affects prospects and avenues for adaptation. Except for autono-
mous adaptations by natural ecosystems, all adaptation actions depend on human
behavior, and there is a critical need for research on determinants of adaptation that
focus on this topic (Chapter 4). Scientific knowledge of human behavior as a factor in
climate change adaptation is currently very limited (NRC, 2009b), but is a critical com-
ponent to understanding how adaptation decision making might work and consti-
tutes an important part of the knowledge base for adaptation planning and action at
a variety of levels and sectors.
Institutional behavior that affects adoption and implementation of adaptation strategies,
as well as monitoring of the effectiveness of these adaptation strategies. Because institu-
tions shape climate change responses and because conditions for institutional inno-
vation and change are fundamental to adaptation, this research area is considered a
high priority (NRC, 1999, 2001a, 2005a, 2009a).
0
OCR for page 206
A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E
Improved understanding of How Climate Change Adaptation
Relates to broader Sustainability Issues
How climate change adaptation relates to broader societal concerns about resilience and
sustainability (Chapter 3) in the face of multiple threats, stresses, and opportunities. As in-
dicated above, adaptation to climate change impacts is only one of many concerns for
localities, sectors, and populations concerned about their futures. Other driving forces
include changes in population trends, the global economy, technology, and institu-
tions (IPCC, 2007a). It is critically important to identify strategies and actions that sup-
port adaptation to longer-term climate change and also provide benefits for resilience
and sustainability in the near term.
Improved understanding of Interdependencies among Climate Change
Impacts and Implications of Adaptive Responses in One Sector to Other Sectors
and Infrastructures, as well as to Economies and Societies More broadly
Climate change impacts on one sector can affect other sectors as well. For example, in-
creased water scarcity can affect energy production, agriculture, water quality, and ur-
ban growth. Reduced electricity production can affect water pumping and wastewater
treatment. Even within a single sector, disruption of service in one segment can stress
other segments as well. Effective adaptation to impacts of climate change will require
a much more integrated approach to analyzing impacts and responses.
More fundamental research over a longer term is also needed to close a variety of
gaps in the science of impact and vulnerability assessment. These gaps currently limit
the ability to perform many kinds of adaptation assessments and option evaluations.
Needs for fundamental science and technology advances include: improved informa-
tion about climate change impacts under different assumptions about multiple driv-
ing forces and stressors, improved information about costs of impacts and both costs
and benefits of adaptation options, and improved capacities to assess and represent
uncertainties (Chapter 2).
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOgy ADvANCES FOR ADAPTATION
OPTION IDENTIFICATION AND DEvELOPMENT
In too many cases, decision makers and stakeholders concerned about climate change
risks and interested in possible adaptations have difficulty finding information about
their options, as well as the possible effects, costs and benefits, and limits of those op-
0
OCR for page 207
Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed
tions. Historically, most of the attention to adaptation research, as reported in the In-
tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third and Fourth Assessment Reports, has
been focused on understanding differences in adaptation capacity (Chapter 5), that is,
determinants of the inclination and ability of a party to adapt. Summaries of possible
adaptation options in selected sectors include Wilbanks and Sathaye (2007), Bierbaum
(2007), and a set of “Synthesis and Assessment Products” produced by the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program, 2007–2009 (4.1 through 4.7), along with a workshop held at
the National Research Council on October 25, 2007.
Adaptation Data and Decision Support
In the short term, a high priority for science and technology advances is to create
an adaptation database that offers the best available information about adaptation
alternatives, their characteristics, and examples of best practices. The database should
contain information about costs of impacts and both costs and benefits of adapta-
tion options, as well as measures of effectiveness as they become available. As part of
monitoring the implementation of adaptation options, information needs to be gath-
ered about the decision and regional context and the socioeconomic considerations
to enable the transferability of “lessons learned” about the adaptation options. In time,
such a database should be interactive, ideally offering users the opportunity to go be-
yond simply surveying existing answers and to ask questions about database entries
and consult experts about issues not covered by those entries. For example, the lists of
options in Chapter 3 can be viewed as a beginning of such a database; however, more
careful analysis would be required before choosing among these options.
Sectoral Priorities for Science and Technology Advances in Support of Adaptation
Advances in science and technology that would significantly strengthen adaptation
planning and implementation in selected sectors, drawn from Chapter 3 and the
matrices, include the following (ACC: Advancing the Science of Climate Change; NRC,
2010b). The list was developed from the references listed above, along with the knowl-
edge of sectoral experts on the panel (see Chapter 3):
Water
• Analyses of approaches for adapting water rights systems and practices to
new climate conditions;
0
OCR for page 208
A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E
• Improved understanding of groundwater dynamics and recharge in the con-
text of climate change;
• Technologies and practices for water-use efficiency improvement in multiple
sectors;
• Lower-energy and renewable energy approaches to desalination of ocean
water and brackish groundwater; and
• Assessments of the ecosystem and human health implications of reusing mu-
nicipal wastewater.
Ecosystems
• Advances in estimating values for ecosystem services as a basis for assessing
benefits and costs of adaptations, including possible losses of services valued
by society;
• Integrated analyses of alternative approaches to promoting ecosystem stabil-
ity under changing climate conditions—approaches that range from easing
impacts by reducing other ecosystem stresses to enhancing natural or assisted
species migrations (including invasive species issues in destination areas);
• Improvements in the science base for dynamic spatial ecosystem planning—
for example, in oceans and ecosystems in areas facing stress from land use
changes; and
• Improved maintenance of services from coastal or marine ecosystems, such as
flood attenuation and water filtration.
Health
• Significant advances in the capacity to model health impacts of climate
change, such as changes in geographic range of diseases and disease vectors;
• Advances in science and technology to reduce vector populations that would
otherwise benefit in some regions from climate change;
• Contingency planning for responding to multiple concurrent health threats
with limited public health care resources;
• Analysis of alternatives for improving the resilience of health care facilities and
systems to major weather events; and
• Analysis of equity considerations—who actually bears the health-related costs
of climate change and receives the benefits of adaptation actions.
0
OCR for page 209
Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed
Agriculture
• Analysis of implications of regional drying for the long-term availability of ir-
rigation for agriculture;
• Advances in the understanding of climate change effects on pests and
pathogens;
• Analysis of possible roles of microinsurance in agricultural risk management;
and
• Cross-cutting analysis, such as impacts of heat on the productivity of agricul-
tural workers, impacts of higher ozone concentration on crops, and relation-
ship of changes in agricultural productivity to sustainability in developing
countries.
Energy
• Improvements in the efficiency and affordability of space cooling technologies
for buildings to assist adaptation to warming;
• New approaches for cooling thermal electric power plants that are signifi-
cantly less water consumptive than most current practices;
• Analysis of electricity transmission and distribution systems to determine pos-
sible vulnerabilities to heat waves; and
• Implications of new climate change policies on energy choices, their effects,
and adaptation alternatives.
Transportation
• Advances in developing materials for transportation systems that are less vul-
nerable to damage from temperature increases and water submergence;
• Improvements in the understanding of effects of climate change on regional
and local hydrology in order to guide changes in infrastructure specifications
(e.g., bridges and culverts); and
• How to design and operate transportation systems that function well in emer-
gency response and evacuation.
Coastal vulnerabilities
• Advances in the understanding of benefits, costs, and broader implications
of alternative approaches to reduce vulnerabilities (e.g., protect with barriers,
protect with stabilization and facility hardening, insure, or relocate);
0
OCR for page 210
A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E
• Improve the understanding of factors that influence decisions about coastal
land use;
• Improve the understanding of the likelihood, causes, and implications of
coastal eutrophication and hypoxia; and
• Examine options for sustaining coastal wetlands and ecologies with a rising
sea level and more extreme storms.
International
• Development of technologies such as salt-tolerant crops and solar cooling
that will assist climate change adaptation in lower-income countries;
• Enhancement of monitoring systems to detect sustainability stresses and to
provide early warning of possible needs for adaptation in order to avoid or
delay economic/environmental tipping points;
• Evaluation of alternative institutional mechanisms for supporting climate
change adaptation and capacity building globally; and
• Identification of potential ancillary benefits of intelligence information gener-
ated for other purposes that could be used to inform adaptation strategies.
Cross-Cutting Science and Technology Needs
In addition, many urgent research needs cut across sectors. For example, each sector-
specific action or plan needs to consider cross-sectoral interdependencies and interac-
tions, where impacts and adaptation alternatives in one sector have implications for
others as well. This should be explored, at least in part, in a place-based context such
as one or more major urban areas, or one or more watersheds, where interactions can
be traced in some detail.
Improved understanding about when to implement adaptation actions is urgently
needed—for instance, in which cases should adaptation be started now to ensure
longer-term resilience instead of waiting for impact uncertainties to be reduced? Tim-
ing issues are likely to differ among adaptation needs and options, but they include
such considerations as whether adaptation now can be more participative and less
expensive than emergency-based, reactive, and sudden problem solving; whether ad-
aptation now is more likely to be placed in a broader sustainability context; and how
important current uncertainties are in valuing investments in risk management.
Furthermore, research is required to evaluate options for encouraging voluntary
relocation from high-vulnerability areas such as retreat from vulnerable coastlines.
Alaska is already facing requirements to relocate vulnerable populations from affected
0
OCR for page 211
Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed
coastlines (Chapter 3), and other areas in the United States are almost certain to face
difficult choices over the next half-century as well—choices between expensive large-
scale protection of current land use practices versus relocation of such land use to
other areas. The most illustrative examples include Alaskan shoreline erosion and the
threat of a disruptive rise in sea level along the Gulf Coast (CCSP, 2008a), mentioned
above. Other areas subject to severe water shortages, wildfires, flooding, or sea level
rise may face similar challenges in the future. A research literature is beginning to ap-
pear about retreating from especially vulnerable areas (Cutter et al., 2007; Kates, 2007),
motivated by observed trends in impacts, along with rising costs of insurance and
other factors. Improving the understanding of how to encourage this kind of volun-
tary risk-management assessment and decision making is essential in order to avoid
potentials for socially disruptive and economically expensive problem solving in the
mid- to long-term future.
In addition, new approaches to cost sharing for low-probability, high-consequence
extreme events will be needed. Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities are likely
to lead to large losses in buildings, infrastructure, economic activities, and ecosystem
services (Chapter 2). While in theory some of these are preventable, in practice the
most common experience—that is, the most common adaptation—will be the bear-
ing or sharing of these losses. Research is urgently needed on the distribution of these
losses, the current modes of sharing (disaster relief, insurance, and government reim-
bursement), and new methods of sharing in the form of comprehensive or specialized
climate insurance, catastrophe trust funds, and the like. Objectives include determin-
ing the best balance between investments in local adaptations and investments in
cost sharing in the event of low-probability, high-consequence events. This should
involve (1) both avoiding inefficient redundancies in local self-insurance against low-
probability contingencies and realizing potentials for local adaptations to reduce the
cost of insurance, and (2) exploring the right balance between private- and public-
sector approaches to cost sharing.
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOgy ADvANCES FOR ADAPTATION
MANAgEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION
Climate change adaptation is not just a set of actions. It is an ongoing process of learn-
ing and adapting, both to emerging information about climate change impacts and to
evolving experience with adaptation strategies and decisions. Science and technology
advances are needed to improve that process in the following areas (Chapters 3 and 4).
OCR for page 212
A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E
Areas for Science and Technology Advances
Observing systems. Deploying and using systems are necessary to monitor climate
change impacts and to provide a continuing flow of information about them to deci-
sion makers (see also “Improved Information,” earlier in this chapter). Developing an
adaptive approach to adaptation and reassessing risk management as additional in-
formation emerges about impacts and responses depend fundamentally on this kind
of accurate and timely information.
Risk analysis and management approaches. The development of risk analysis and
management approaches is needed to provide tools and guidelines for adaptation
decision makers (Chapter 4). Examples include refining and testing approaches for
addressing such issues as the treatment of risks, the timing of adaptation actions, and
benefits and costs of alternative actions, and for understanding of the likely winners
and losers associated with any particular adaptation strategies and actions.
Learning from emerging experience and documenting and disseminating best practices.
In nearly every case, at nearly every scale, there will eventually be a need to assess the
outcomes of adaptation strategies and actions, asking such questions as what they
have accomplished and whether they can be considered successes. The current state
of the art and science for such assessments is very limited and is complicated by such
factors as the need to define a baseline for comparison and the fact that multiple
factors will influence the observed outcomes of any particular adaptation action. To
build the knowledge base that allows the development of “best practices,” the various
factors that influence the choice and the outcome of the adaptation option need to
be measured, archived, and analyzed. Ideally, a standard set of variable is monitored in
every case to enable analyzing the link between option and geographic context. This
is a significant cross-cutting adaptation research need in a field where, in at least some
cases, practice is likely to proceed in parallel with knowledge enhancement, including
needs to improve knowledge of the costs of adaptation.
Best practices in adaptation management (for example, successes with mainstream-
ing adaptation in ongoing community and sectoral processes, including institutional
structures that sustain attention to adaptation beyond the spans of attention of indi-
vidual leaders, and successes in improving resilience to climate-related disasters) need
to be identified, documented, and disseminated. Validating “best practice,” of course,
depends on monitoring the effectiveness of policies and practices as they are imple-
mented (see “Improved Information” and “Observing Systems” in this chapter).
Monitoring the impacts of adaptation and mitigation actions; adapting to adaptation
and mitigation actions. Adaptation does not stop with adapting to direct changes in
OCR for page 213
Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed
climate alone; it also faces challenges in adapting to what people do in responding
to climate change. That includes actions to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as
well as adaptation actions (and potentially, geoengineering options). Because these
second-order adaptations have received very little attention, integrating them into
adaptation planning and actions will be a challenge. For example, emissions-reduction
strategies that raise the cost of some forms of energy, or geoengineering strategies
that could have secondary consequences, may call for advances in adaptation research
to support assessment, option identification, and option implementation (Chapter 2).
In addition, some actions aimed at adaptation may in fact represent “maladaptations.”
A frequently cited example is what has been called the “levee effect” (e.g., Kates et
al., 2006), where short-term adaptive responses create a sense of security and lead to
societal responses that increase the chances of catastrophic risk in the future when
short-term adaption options become inadequate.
Strengthening the Science and Technology base for Adaptation
Optimizing the nation’s adaptation to impacts of climate change is likely to require
more than advances in science and technology in subject areas that can be identified
now. It will most likely require transformational changes in our science and technology
base for adaptation, too. This means that a national science and technology enhance-
ment strategy should include investments in more innovative, “farther-out” ideas as
well familiar ideas. For example, most adaptations to climate change considered today
are extensions of existing options for adapting to climate variability or extreme events,
differing only in the scope of implementation, the frequency of application, and the
intensity of effort. But climate change may well exceed the range of current climate
variability and extreme events; thus, novel adaptations are very likely to be needed,
especially in the event of tipping points and/or abrupt changes. Particularly in the case
of such potential severe or unexpected consequences, prudent risk management sug-
gests the need to consider contingency plans for high-impact, low-probability events
in adaptation planning. However, much research is needed on how to develop such
“worst-case” plans.
Finally, there is a need to assess options currently not feasible. A number of needed
adaptations that should be considered in national strategies seem infeasible today
because current opposition outweighs their possible longer-term value. For example,
many recognize the long-term need for a retreat from the coast but are unwilling to
pursue this option, given society’s heavy investment in current coastal development.
Similarly, the future climate system is unlikely to supply the growing water demands of
the South and West, meaning that water rights surely need revision. Given the history
OCR for page 214
A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E
and diversity of water rights and the major difficulties experienced in pursuing even
modest revisions, however, few decision makers are willing to undertake it. How such
unfeasible solutions might become feasible should be the focus of a specific research
effort. A research program designed to elicit such innovations is desirable.
ALTERNATIvE APPROACHES FOR MEETINg SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOgy NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANgE ADAPTATION
How can these high-priority needs for science and technology advancement best
be met? It is not the place of this report to prescribe a specific mechanism and bud-
get level, but the panel suggests some possible guidelines for developing effective
research mechanisms.
Possible guidelines
Forceful actions to show that the nation considers adaptation a high priority and wants to
improve its science and technology base in order to achieve adaptation goals as effectively
and efficiently as possible. The need for a higher level of science and technology effort
in support of adaptation has been identified previously (GAO, 2009a,b; NRC, 2009a,b),
could be addressed by increasing its visibility and emphasis in government priori-
ties, and might require changes in organizational structures in federal agencies and
increased level of funding.
Involving a wide range of science and technology users and stakeholders in setting agen
das for adaptation research. Because suitable adaptations differ according to loca-
tion, sector, and affected parties, and because knowledge about adaptation is widely
distributed, adaptation science and technology agendas should be informed by
stakeholder interactions. Some guidelines for such interactions are contained in recent
NRC reports (NRC, 2008d, 2009b) and a forthcoming report (ACC: Informing an Effective
Response to Climate Change; NRC, 2010a).
Involving multiple contributors, not just the federal government. Adaptation science
and technology advances should be grounded in a partnership among federal, state,
and local governments; the private sector and other nongovernmental organizations
(NGOs); and the academic research community. This is required because capacities to
contribute to topics of interest vary among the partners, research needs to be re-
sponsive to the decision-making context of all the decision makers, and science and
technology advances should inform voluntary autonomous adaptation actions as well
OCR for page 215
Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed
as government program interventions (see below). Mechanisms for effective science
and technology partnerships should be developed in a collaborative way.
Coevolution of science and experience. Because (1) adaptation planning and some ad-
aptation actions are already under way, (2) in many cases adaptation implementation
should not wait for years until the knowledge base is strengthened through new re-
search, and (3) current experience is a uniquely valuable source of empirical evidence
about what and how adaptation works, it is vitally important to link ongoing science
and technology advances with ongoing adaptation experience-building. One impor-
tant step should be to ensure monitoring and database development to capture and
disseminate adaptation experiences (without imposing undue burdens on adaptation
decision makers and implementers).
Attention to autonomous adaptation as well as planned adaptation. Finally, it is abso-
lutely essential to avoid an assumption that adaptation only happens because of
direct government programs. In many contexts, individual decision makers, from firms
to families, are already considering adaptations to stresses associated with climate
variability and change. The greater the share of adaptations that can be handled in
this way, the more likely adaptation is to be both effective and affordable. A very high
priority is to improve our understanding of how to promote, facilitate, and support
autonomous adaptation as an alterative or supplement to planned adaptation. One
source, for example, suggests that voluntary grassroots action can be encouraged by
a combination of significant local control over decisions about priorities, an increased
awareness of the risks associated with climate change impacts and the potential ben-
efits of adaptation, and access to a diverse portfolio of technological and institutional
alternatives, some of which might not be currently available to some decision makers
(Kates and Wilbanks, 2003).
Current Models to Illustrate Options
A number of models for organizing and funding adaptation science and technology
are available to illustrate options. The most familiar model in the United States is to
mobilize a multi-agency collaboration, depending mainly on individual agency pro-
grams but with a provision for multi-agency collaboration. The USGCRP is an example
of such an approach, although it has not notably advanced science and technology for
adaptation. Australia has responded to strong national concerns about climate change
impacts by establishing a National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility to
play a lead role, although it will not be the only source of science and technology
advances for adaptation. A solution somewhere between these two approaches might
OCR for page 216
A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E
involve assigning lead roles to particular agencies for advancing adaptation sci-
ence and technology for different sectors, although a coherent national effort would
require support for oversight, coordination, and cross-cutting research as well. Finally,
an additional example is offered by the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme
(UKCIP), previously described as a boundary organization, which leads the effort in sci-
ence and technology development for adaptation in the United Kingdom.
CONCLuSIONS
A lack of serious commitment by the United States to adaptation to climate change
has led to an inadequate research effort to provide the science and technology to sup-
port appropriate and effective adaptation decisions. Advances in science and technol-
ogy are needed in the following areas: to support adaptation analysis and assessment,
to identify and develop adaptation options, and to strengthen adaptation manage-
ment and implementation. Many of these advances are needed as quickly as possible
to inform such issues as: thresholds or tipping points for climate change impacts
that may exceed the limits of adaptation; prospects and approaches for encouraging
voluntary relocation from high-vulnerability areas; and relationships between climate
change adaptation and issues of resilience and sustainability in a context of multiple
threats, stresses, and opportunities. Regarding other high priorities for science and
technology advances, see the many challenges listed in this chapter. Adaptation faces
challenges not only related to direct changes in climate but also in adapting to the
actions people take in responding to climate change (including both GHG emissions-
reduction actions and adaptation actions).
Conclusion: In order to strengthen America’s choices for adapting to impacts of
climate change, science and technology advances are needed in the following
areas: adaptation analysis and assessment, adaptation option identification and
development, and adaptation management and implementation.
Conclusion: To provide a reliable foundation for adapting to impacts of climate
change, in a larger context of sustainability and as a key component of a cross-
agency climate change research program (ACC: Advancing the Science of Climate
Change; NRC, 2010b), the nation needs a significant national strategy and program
for climate change adaptation research and development. A shared partnership
between the federal government, other levels of government, the private sector
and other NGOs, and the academic research community would be the most
effective way to achieve this outcome.
OCR for page 217
Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed
Conclusion: Studies of autonomous adaptation as well as planned adaptation
are needed, along with monitoring and learning from ongoing experiences with
adaptation in practice. A national program could prioritize these needs and also
expedite advances in adaptation science and technology that have promise in
reducing critical national and regional vulnerabilities to climate change impacts in
the coming decades.
OCR for page 218
