FIGURE 7.1 This world map illustrates how global cereal production and trade depends on very few countries. SOURCE: FAO (2008), as redrawn in World Bank (2010).

from innovations in remote sensing. United States food and fiber processing industries also require information on conditions in key countries exporting to the United States, with some companies maintaining in house climate expertise in order to gain comparative advantage in climate-sensitive global markets. Climate change will make it harder to produce enough food for the world’s growing population, and the global rate of agricultural productivity growth will need to almost double while minimizing the associated environmental damage (IPCC, 2007; Rosegrant et al., 2009). This will require dedicated efforts to identify crop varieties able to withstand climate shocks, as identified by the reports Advancing the Science of Climate Change (NRC, 2010b) and Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (NRC, 2010a), as well as improved early warning information about extreme weather events. Global events such as the 1997-1998 strong El Niño and the weaker El Niños in 2002, 2004, and 2006 have shown how timely and effective climate forecasts and assessment information lead to enhanced resilience in domestic and international sectors such as disaster management and agriculture (NRC, 1999). Better forecasting and management of continental drought, with an emphasis on risk management rather than crisis management, can help in coping with more extensive climate change in the future. Two models of such approaches are the Australian Drought Policy (Wilhite et al., 2005) and the U.S. Western Water Assessment (WWA).¹ The United States will increasingly need information about seasonal,