Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change

America’s Climate Choices Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

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Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change America’s Climate Choices Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies

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T HE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, N.W. • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe- tences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number DG133R08CQ0062, TO# 4. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommen- dations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its subagencies. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14597-8 (Book) International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14597-X (Book) International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14598-5 (PDF) International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14598-8 (PDF) Library of Congress Control Number: 2010940141 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Cover images: Middle left: courtesy of www.public-domain-image.com Far right: courtesy of Department of Housing Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to se- cure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and educa- tion. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of fur- thering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing ser- vices to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.or g

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AMERICA’S CLIMATE CHOICES: PANEL ON LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ROBERT W. FRI (Chair), Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. MARILYN A. BROWN ( Vice Chair), Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta DOUG ARENT, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado ANN CARLSON, University of California, Los Angeles MAJORA CARTER, Majora Carter Group, LLC, Bronx, New York LEON CLARKE, Joint Global Change Research Institute (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland), College Park, Maryland FRANCISCO DE LA CHESNAYE, Electric Power Research Institute, Washington, D.C. GEORGE C. EADS, Charles River Associates, Washington, D.C. GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, University of Southern California, Los Angeles ANDREW HOFFMAN, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor ROBERT O. KEOHANE, Princeton University, New Jersey LOREN LUTZENHISER, Portland State University, Oregon BRUCE MCCARL, Texas A&M University, College Station MACK MCFARLAND, DuPont, Wilmington, Delaware MARY D. NICHOLS, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento EDWARD S. RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania THOMAS H. TIETENBERG, Colby College (retired), Waterville, Maine JAMES A. TRAINHAM, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina NRC Staff LAURIE GELLER, Study Director ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer TOM MENZIES, Senior Program Officer KATIE WELLER, Research Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant 

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Foreword: About America’s Climate Choices C onvened by the National Research Council in response to a request from Congress (P.L. 110-161), America’s Climate Choices is a suite of five coordinated activities designed to study the serious and sweeping issues associated with global climate change, including the science and technology challenges involved, and to provide advice on the most effective steps and most promising strategies that can be taken to respond. The Committee on America’s Climate Choices is responsible for providing overall direc- tion, coordination, and integration of the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities and ensuring that these activities provide well-supported, action-oriented, and useful advice to the nation. The committee convened a Summit on America’s Climate Choices on March 30–31, 2009, to help frame the study and provide an opportunity for high- level input on key issues. The committee is also charged with writing a final report that builds on four panel reports and other sources to answer the following four overarch- ing questions: • What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate change? • What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be pursued to respond to climate change? • What are the major scientific and technological advances needed to better understand and respond to climate change? • What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethi- cal, intergenerational, etc.) to responding effectively to climate change, and what can be done to overcome these impediments? The Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change was charged to de- scribe, analyze, and assess strategies for reducing the net future human influence on climate. This report focuses on actions to reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions and other human drivers of climate change, such as changes in land use, but also con- siders the international dimensions of climate stabilization. The Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change was charged to describe, analyze, and assess actions and strategies to reduce vulnerability, increase adaptive ii

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FOREWORD capacity, improve resiliency, and promote successful adaptation to climate change in different regions, sectors, systems, and populations. The panel’s report draws on a wide range of sources and case studies to identify lessons learned from past experiences, promising current approaches, and potential new directions. The Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change was charged to provide a concise overview of past, present, and future climate change, including its causes and its impacts, and to recommend steps to advance our current understanding, including new observations, research programs, next-generation models, and the physical and human assets needed to support these and other activities. The panel’s report focuses on the scientific advances needed both to improve our understanding of the integrated human-climate system and to devise more effective responses to climate change. The Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change was charged to describe and assess different activities, products, strategies, and tools for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and ex- ecute effective, integrated responses. The panel’s report describes the different types of climate change-related decisions and actions being taken at various levels and in different sectors and regions; it develops a framework, tools, and practical advice for ensuring that the best available technical knowledge about climate change is used to inform these decisions and actions. America’s Climate Choices builds on an extensive foundation of previous and ongoing work, including National Research Council reports, assessments from other national and international organizations, the current scientific literature, climate action plans by various entities, and other sources. More than a dozen boards and standing com- mittees of the National Research Council were involved in developing the study, and many additional groups and individuals provided additional input during the study process. Outside viewpoints were also obtained via public events and workshops (including the Summit), invited presentations at committee and panel meetings, and comments received through the study website, http://americasclimatechoices.org. Collectively, the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities involves more than 90 volunteers from a range of communities including academia, various levels of govern- ment, business and industry, other nongovernmental organizations, and the interna- tional community. Responsibility for the final content of each report rests solely with the authoring panel and the National Research Council. However, the development of each report included input from and interactions with members of all five study groups; the membership of each group is listed in Appendix A. iii

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Preface T ackling climate change promises to be one of the most significant social and technological challenges of the 21st century. Since the industrial revolution, the atmosphere has been one of the world’s principal waste repositories because it has offered an easy and inexpensive means of managing unwanted by-products. It is currently absorbing a net gain of two parts per million of CO2 per year as the result of global emissions, and the world’s leading scientists believe that this change in atmo- spheric composition is changing the global climate. This report focuses on actions available to the United States to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The goal of actually limiting1 global climate change requires interna- tional cooperation, since most of this century’s emissions will come from developing countries, with U.S. emissions representing a shrinking portion of the total. Thus, our national strategy must promote domestic actions while at the same time influencing the rest of the world to control their emissions. The United States has successfully reduced emissions of several key atmospheric pollutants—including SO2, NOX, and particulates—through the Clean Air Act. The cre- ation of a market for SO2 allowances, in conjunction with performance standards and a cap on emissions, provided strong incentives for entrepreneurs to develop lower-cost SO2 abatement technologies and approaches, and is one of the past century’s great- est environmental policy successes. Emissions of most GHGs, however, remain largely unregulated and continue to be discharged without penalty, through smokestacks, tailpipes, and chimneys, and by the destruction of forests. With no price on carbon, or regulatory pressure, there exist few incentives to mitigate emissions. Thus, we continue to “lock in” incumbent technologies and systems that are typically carbon-intensive. Changing these practices will require scientific and engineering genius to create new energy systems that avoid emitting all but a small fraction of today’s GHGs while simultaneously powering global economic growth. Success will also necessitate insti- tutional, economic, social, and policy innovations to foster the widespread and rapid deployment of transformational technologies. 1 The term “limiting” climate change rather than “mitigation” of climate change was deliberately chosen, because in some circles, mitigation often refers to mitigating the impacts of climate change, that is, adapta- tion (the focus of another America’s Climate Choices panel report). Our focus is on limiting the main drivers of climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions), with the expectation that this will contribute to limiting climate change itself. ix

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P R E FA C E In this study, the panel was charged with describing, analyzing, and assessing strate- gies for reducing the future human influence on climate (see full Statement of Task in Appendix B). We considered both existing and emerging technologies, as well as exist- ing and innovative new policies. Technologies and policies were assessed according to their scale of impact, cost, feasibility, and other critical factors, with the assistance of a set of guiding principles. Based on these factors and principles, the panel was able to recommend a short list of options that appear to be most important for significantly reducing GHG emissions. There are numerous important issues closely related to the topic of limiting climate change that are not addressed here. This report does not, for instance, • describe the scientific evidence for why climate change is real and being driven largely by human influences and why this poses a serious threat to humans and ecosystems; • identify the impacts that may result from not taking sufficient action to limit climate change and the vulnerability of different populations and regions to those impacts; • analyze the economic impacts of acting versus not acting to limit climate change (i.e., cost-benefit analyses); • discuss “solar radiation management” geoengineering strategies; • explore (in any considerable depth) the scientific research needed for improv- ing our understanding of climate change and the specific types of technologi- cal research and development needed for reducing emissions; or • examine strategies for improving education and communication about cli- mate change with the general public and the media. Many of these issues are addressed in the other America’s Climate Choices panel reports (Advancing the Science of Climate Change, Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change), and/or will be addressed in the final report of the ACC main committee. This study began at a time when the United States and countries around the world were actively debating options for addressing global climate change. It is particularly timely, therefore, that the National Research Council has taken on this task; in doing so, we were fortunate to engage a panel of experts with a diversity of backgrounds—in- cluding, for instance, physical scientists, social scientists, economists, engineers, com- munity organizers, lawyers, and executives of nongovernmental organizations. This broad-based group of experts proved capable of resolving many opposing viewpoints that at first blush might have seemed irreconcilable. Their active involvement and commitment to producing a useful report is greatly appreciated. x

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Preface The panel approached its task by conducting its own review of the literature and by supplementing the panel members’ expertise with informational briefings on key topics from outside authorities. In particular, we wish to thank Jonathan Black, Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee; Rachel Cleetus and Steve Clemmer, Union of Concerned Scientists; Ana Unruh Cohen, House Select Committee on Energy Inde- pendence and Global Warming; Robert Marlay, Climate Change Technology Program, U.S. Department of Energy; W. David Montgomery, CRA International; Bill Parton, Colo- rado State University; Robert Pollin, University of Massachusetts, Amherst; and Michael Ryan, USDA Forest Service. We are particularly grateful for the assistance provided by Laurie Geller, who managed this panel study for the National Research Council. Her unflagging persistence, upbeat attitude, regular communications, and writing and editing assistance helped keep the panel on schedule. She received considerable assistance from Tom Menzies, Alan Crane, and Paul Stern, who were important sounding boards as the panel’s ideas were being formulated. We also thank Shelly Freeland, who managed the logistics of our meetings, and Katie Weller, who supported the preparation of the final manuscript. Bob Fri (Chair) and Marilyn Brown ( Vice Chair) America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change xi

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Acknowledgments T his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and re- sponsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: PAUL DECOTIS, Long Island Power Authority PETER FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists ARNULF GRUBLER, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis HENRY JACOBY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ROGER KASPERSON, Clark University FRANZ LITZ, World Resources Institute WILLIAM NORDHAUS, Yale University MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University ROBERT POLLIN, University of Massachusetts, Amherst MAxINE SAVITZ, Honeywell, Inc. (retired) RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ROBERT SOCOLOW, Princeton University BJORN STIGSON, World Business Council for Sustainable Development MICHAEL VANDENBERGH, Vanderbilt University DAVID VICTOR, Stanford University Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommenda- tions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Frosch (Harvard University) and Tom Graedel ( Yale University). Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institu- tional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsi- bility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution. xiii

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Institutional oversight for this project was provided by: BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park ROSINA M. BIERBAUM, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor RICHARD CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado WALTER F. DABBERDT, Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia GREG S. FORBES, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, University of Chicago, Illinois KIMBERLY PRATHER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley JOHN T. SNOW, University of Oklahoma, Norman THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR, Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins xUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson Ex Officio Members GERALD A. MEEHL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer IAN KRAUCUNAS, Senior Program Officer EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer TOBY WARDEN, Program Officer MARTHA MCCONNELL, Program Officer MAGGIE WALSER, Associate Program Officer JOSEPH CASOLA, Postdoctoral Fellow RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator KATIE WELLER, Research Associate LAUREN M. BROWN, Research Assistant ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate xi

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Acknowledgments SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant JANEISE STURDIVANT, Program Assistant RICARDO PAYNE, Program Assistant SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate x

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 15 Context and Purpose of This Report, 15 Principles to Guide Climate Change Limiting Policy and Strategy, 17 Organization of the Report, 18 2 GOALS FOR LIMITING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE 21 Reference U.S. and Global Emissions, 21 Setting Climate Change Limiting Goals, 30 Global Emission Targets, 32 U.S. Emission Targets, 36 Implications of U.S. Emission Goals, 42 Key Conclusions and Recommendations, 48 3 OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIMITING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE 51 Opportunities for Limiting GHG Emissions, 51 The Case for Urgency, 81 The Larger Context for Technology, 87 Key Conclusions and Recommendations, 88 4 CRAFTING A PORTFOLIO OF CLIMATE CHANGE LIMITING POLICIES 91 Pricing Strategy Design Features, 92 Comparing Taxes with Cap and Trade, 99 Complementary Options for the Policy Portfolio, 108 Integrating the Policy Options, 126 Key Conclusions and Recommendations, 133 5 FOSTERING TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS 137 The Role of Technological Innovation, 137 The Process of Technological Change, 139 Resources Currently Available for Technology Innovation, 143 Assessment of Current U.S. Innovation Policies, 157 Key Conclusions and Recommendations, 163 xii

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CONTENTS 6 INTERACTION WITH OTHER MAJOR POLICY CONCERNS 165 Linkages with Energy and Environmental Policy Issues, 165 Key Conclusions and Recommendations, 172 Equity and Employment Impacts, 173 Key Conclusions and Recommendations, 190 7 MULTILEVEL RESPONSE STRATEGIES 193 International Strategies, 193 Key Conclusions and Recommendations, 205 Balancing Federal with State and Local Action, 206 Key Conclusions and Recommendations, 213 8 POLICY DURABILITY AND ADAPTABILITY 215 Policy Stability, Durability, and Enforcement, 215 Generating Timely Information for Adaptive Management, 219 Key Conclusions and Recommendations, 222 REFERENCES 225 APPENDIXES A America’s Climate Choices: Membership Lists 239 B Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change: Statement of Task 243 C Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change: Biographical Sketches 245 D Acronyms, Energy Units, and Chemical Formulas 255 xiii