HIDDEN COSTS OF ENERGY

UNPRICED CONSEQUENCES OF ENERGY PRODUCTION AND USE

Committee on Health, Environmental, and Other External Costs and Benefits of Energy Production and Consumption

Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy

Policy and Global Affairs Division

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page R1
Committee on Health, Environmental, and Other External Costs and Benefits of Energy Production and Consumption Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Division on Earth and Life Studies Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy Policy and Global Affairs Division

OCR for page R1
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Govern- ing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropri- ate balance. This project was supported by Contract No. TOS-08-038 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Any opinions, find- ings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14640-1 (Book) International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14640-2 (Book) International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14641-8 (PDF) International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14641-0 (PDF) Library of Congress Control Number: 2010925089 Additional copies of this report are available from The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

OCR for page R1
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Acad- emy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding en- gineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is presi- dent of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Coun- cil is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

OCR for page R1

OCR for page R1
COMMITTEE ON HEALTH, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND OTHER EXTERNAL COSTS AND BENEFITS OF ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION Members JARED L. COHON (Chair), Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA MAUREEN L. CROPPER (Vice Chair), University of Maryland, College Park MARK R. CULLEN, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA ELISABETH M. DRAKE (retired), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Auburndale, MA MARY R. ENGLISH, University of Tennessee, Knoxville CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, CA DANIEL S. GREENBAUM, Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA JAMES K. HAMMITT, Harvard University Center for Risk Analysis, Boston, MA ROGENE F. HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM CATHERINE L. KLING, Iowa State University, Ames ALAN J. KRUPNICK, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC RUSSELL LEE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN H. SCOTT MATTHEWS, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA THOMAS E. MCKONE, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA GILBERT E. METCALF, Tufts University, Medford, MA RICHARD G. NEWELL,1 Duke University, Durham, NC RICHARD L. REVESZ, New York University School of Law, New York IAN SUE WING, Boston University, Boston, MA TERRANCE G. SURLES, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI Consultants TODD D. CAMPBELL, Iowa State University, Ames MIKHAIL V. CHESTER, University of California, Berkeley PHILIP W. GASSMAN, Iowa State University, Ames NICHOLAS Z. MULLER, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT 1 ResignedAugust 2, 2009, to accept appointment as administrator of the U.S. Energy In- formation Administration. 

OCR for page R1
Staff RAYMOND WASSEL, Project Director, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology STEVE MERRILL, Director, Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems DAVID POLICANSKY, Scholar KEEGAN SAWYER, Associate Program Officer RUTH CROSSGROVE, Senior Editor MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, Manager, Technical Information Center RADIAH ROSE, Editorial Projects Manager JOHN BROWN, Program Associate PATRICK BAUR, Research Assistant Sponsor U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY i

OCR for page R1
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Members ROGENE F. HENDERSON (Chair), Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM RAMÓN ALVAREZ, Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX TINA BAHADORI, American Chemistry Council, Arlington, VA MICHAEL J. BRADLEY, M.J. Bradley & Associates, Concord, MA DALLAS BURTRAW, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC JAMES S. BUS, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, MI JONATHAN Z. CANNON, University of Virginia, Charlottesville GAIL CHARNLEY, HealthRisk Strategies, Washington, DC RUTH DEFRIES, Columbia University, New York, NY RICHARD A. DENISON, Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, DC H. CHRISTOPHER FREY, North Carolina State University, Raleigh J. PAUL GILMAN, Covanta Energy Corporation, Fairfield, NJ RICHARD M. GOLD, Holland & Knight, LLP, Washington, DC LYNN R. GOLDMAN, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD JUDITH A. GRAHAM (retired), Pittsboro, NC HOWARD HU, University of Michigan, Ann Harbor ROGER E. KASPERSON, Clark University, Worcester, MA TERRY L. MEDLEY, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company, Wilmington, DE JANA MILFORD, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder DANNY D. REIBLE, University of Texas, Austin JOSEPH V. RODRICKS, ENVIRON International Corporation, Arlington, VA ROBERT F. SAWYER, University of California, Berkeley KIMBERLY M. THOMPSON, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA MARK J. UTELL, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY Senior Staff JAMES J. REISA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Scholar RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Officer for Environmental Studies SUSAN N.J. MARTEL, Senior Program Officer for Toxicology ELLEN K. MANTUS, Senior Program Officer for Risk Analysis EILEEN N. ABT, Senior Program Officer ii

OCR for page R1
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Senior Editor MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, Manager, Technical Information Center RADIAH ROSE, Manager, Editorial Projects iii

OCR for page R1
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS Members DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN (Chair), MPR Associates, Inc., Alexandria, VA ROBERT W. FRI (Vice Chair), Resources for the Future, Bethesda, MD RAKESH AGRAWAL, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER, the Dow Chemical Company, Midland, MI ALLEN J. BARD, University of Texas, Austin, TX ANDREW BROWN, JR., Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan MARILYN BROWN, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, and Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA MICHAEL L. CORRADINI, University of Wisconsin, Madison PAUL A. DECOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, NY E. LINN DRAPER, JR. (retired) American Electric Power, Inc., Lampasas, TX CHARLES H. GOODMAN (retired), Southern Company Services, Inc., Birmingham, AL SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, VA NARAIN HINGORANI, Consultant, Los Altos Hills, CA WILLIAM F. POWERS (retired), Ford Motor Company, Ann Arbor, MI MICHAEL P. RAMAGE (retired), ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Moorestown, NJ DAN REICHER, Google.org, Warren, VT MAXINE L. SAVITZ (retired), Honeywell, Inc., Los Angeles, CA MARK H. THIEMENS, University of California, San Diego SCOTT W. TINKER, University of Texas, Austin Senior Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director DUNCAN BROWN, Senior Program Officer DANA CAINES, Financial Associate ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer LANITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator JASON ORTEGO, Senior Program Assistant MADELINE WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant ix

OCR for page R1
BOARD ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND ECONOMIC POLICY Members EDWARD E. PENHOET (Chair), Alta Partners, San Francisco, CA LEWIS W. COLEMAN, DreamWorks Animation, Glendale, CA MARY L. GOOD, University of Arkansas. Little Rock RALPH E. GOMORY, president emeritus, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; New York University, New York, NY AMORY ‘AMO’ HOUGHTON, JR. (former member of U.S. Congress), Cohasset, MA DAVID T. MORGENTHALER, Morgenthaler Ventures, Cleveland, OH JOSEPH P. NEWHOUSE, Harvard University, Boston, MA ARATI PRABHAKAR, U.S. Venture Partners, Menlo Park, CA WILLIAM J. RADUCHEL, independent director and investor, Great Falls, VA JACK W. SCHULER, Crabtree Partners, Chicago, IL ALAN WILLIAM WOLFF, Dewey & LeBoeuf LLP, Washington, DC Senior Staff STEVE MERRILL, Director DANIEL MULLINS, Senior Program Associate x

OCR for page R1
OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Review of the Environmental Protection Agency’s Draft IRIS Assessment of Tetrachloroethylene (2010) Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use (2009) Contaminated Water Supplies at Camp Lejeune—Assessing Potential Health Effects (2009) Review of the Federal Strategy for Nanotechnology-Related Environmental, Health, and Safety Research (2009) Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment (2009) Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Tasks Ahead (2008) Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution (2008) Respiratory Diseases Research at NIOSH (2008) Evaluating Research Efficiency in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2008) Hydrology, Ecology, and Fishes of the Klamath River Basin (2008) Applications of Toxicogenomic Technologies to Predictive Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2007) Models in Environmental Regulatory Decision Making (2007) Toxicity Testing in the Twenty-first Century: A Vision and a Strategy (2007) Sediment Dredging at Superfund Megasites: Assessing the Effectiveness (2007) Environmental Impacts of Wind-Energy Projects (2007) Scientific Review of the Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin from the Office of Management and Budget (2007) Assessing the Human Health Risks of Trichloroethylene: Key Scientific Issues (2006) New Source Review for Stationary Sources of Air Pollution (2006) Human Biomonitoring for Environmental Chemicals (2006) Health Risks from Dioxin and Related Compounds: Evaluation of the EPA Reassessment (2006) Fluoride in Drinking Water: A Scientific Review of EPA’s Standards (2006) State and Federal Standards for Mobile-Source Emissions (2006) Superfund and Mining Megasites—Lessons from the Coeur d’Alene River Basin (2005) Health Implications of Perchlorate Ingestion (2005) Air Quality Management in the United States (2004) Endangered and Threatened Species of the Platte River (2004) Atlantic Salmon in Maine (2004) Endangered and Threatened Fishes in the Klamath River Basin (2004) Cumulative Environmental Effects of Alaska North Slope Oil and Gas Development (2003) Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution Regulations (2002) Biosolids Applied to Land: Advancing Standards and Practices (2002) The Airliner Cabin Environment and Health of Passengers and Crew (2002) Arsenic in Drinking Water: 2001 Update (2001) Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs (2001) Compensating for Wetland Losses Under the Clean Water Act (2001) A Risk-Management Strategy for PCB-Contaminated Sediments (2001) Acute Exposure Guideline Levels for Selected Airborne Chemicals (seven volumes, 2000-2009) Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury (2000) Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2000) xi

OCR for page R1
xxii CONTENTS 3 ENERGY FOR TRANSPORTATION 154 Background, 154 Approach to Analyzing Effects and Externalities of Transportation Energy Use, 157 Production and Use of Petroleum-Based Fuels, 165 Production and Use of Biofuels, 181 Electric Vehicles, 197 Natural Gas, 204 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles, 207 Summary and Conclusions, 209 4 ENERGY FOR HEAT 222 Background, 222 Heat in Residential and Commercial Buildings, 226 Heat in the Industrial Sector, 228 Estimates of Externalities Associated with Energy Use for Heat, 232 Emissions of Greenhouse Gases, 240 Potential Damages Reductions in 2030, 241 Summary, 246 5 CLIMATE CHANGE 248 Overview of Quantifying and Valuing Climate-Change Impacts, 248 Impacts on Physical and Biological Systems, 261 Impacts on Human Systems, 266 Economic Damage from Irreversible and Abrupt Climate Change, 289 Aggregate Impacts of Climate Change, 294 Marginal Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 300 Research Recommendations, 308 6 INFRASTRUCTURE AND SECURITY 309 Introduction, 309 Disruption Externalities in the Electricity-Transmission Grid, 309 Facility Vulnerability to Accidents and Attacks, 316 External Costs of Oil Consumption, 325 Security of Energy Supply, 330 National Security Externalities, 331 Conclusion, 336

OCR for page R1
xxiii CONTENTS 7 OVERALL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 337 The Committee’s Analyses, 337 Limitations in the Analyses, 338 Electricity Generation, 339 Transportation, 348 Heat Generation, 356 Climate Change, 358 Comparing Climate and Nonclimate Damage Estimates, 360 Overall Conclusions and Implications, 362 Research Recommendations, 367 REFERENCES 372 ABBREVIATIONS 400 COMMON UNITS AND CONVERSIONS 405 APPENDIXES A BIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ON THE COMMITTEE ON HEALTH, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND OTHER EXTERNAL COSTS AND BENEFITS OF ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION 411 B A SIMPLE DIAGRAMMATIC EXAMPLE OF AN EXTERNALITY 420 C DESCRIPTION OF APEEP MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION 423 D DESCRIPTION OF GREET AND MOBILE6 MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS 432 E SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION ON LAND-USE EXTERNALITIES FROM BIOFUELS: A CASE STUDY OF THE BOONE RIVER WATERSHED 470

OCR for page R1

OCR for page R1
Boxes, Figures, and Tables BOXES 1-1 Statement of Task, 24 1-2 Definitions of Key Terms, 30 2-1 Airborne Particulate Matter, 69 2-2 Entrainment and Impingement of Aquatic Organisms by Thermal Power Plants, 131 4-1 Definition of Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sectors, 223 4-2 Energy for Heat in Steel Manufacture, 229 4-3 Zero-Energy Concept Home, 243 5-1 Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture, 280 5-2 Discounting and Equity Weighting, 302 FIGURES S-1 Distribution of aggregate damages among the 406 coal-fired power plants analyzed in this study, 7 S-2 Distribution of aggregate damages among the 498 natural-gas- fired power plants analyzed in this study, 9 S-3 Health effects and other nonclimate damages are presented by life-cycle component for different combinations of fuels and light- duty automobiles in 2005 and 2030, 14 xx

OCR for page R1
xxi BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES S-4 Greenhouse gas emissions (grams CO2-eq)/VMT by life-cycle component for different combinations of fuels and light-duty automobiles in 2005 and 2030, 16 1-1 Marginal damage associated with SO2 emissions in a year (x- axis) and the marginal cost of emitting SO2 in a year (y-axis) for a hypothetical power plant (Firm 1) emitting SO2, 34 1-2 Sources and forms of energy that provide the ability to do useful work, 37 1-3 Energy flows in the U.S. economy, 2007, 38 1-4 U.S. energy consumption by energy source in 2007, 39 1-5 U.S. consumption of energy by sector and fuel type in 2007, 40 1-6 U.S. delivered energy consumption by end-use sector in 2007, 41 1-7 Life-cycle analysis for energy use, 44 2-1 Major coal-producing regions in the United States (million short tons and percent change from 2006), 73 2-2 Methods of U.S. coal transport, 74 2-3 Injuries in U.S. coal-mining operations from 2000 to 2008, 76 2-4 U.S. coal production 1949-2007, by mining method, 79 2-5 Distribution of aggregate damages in 2005 by decile: Coal plants, 89 2-6 Air-pollution damages from coal generation for 406 plants, 2005, 90 2-7 Distribution of air-pollution damages per kWh for 406 coal plants, 2005, 93 2-8 Regional distribution of air-pollution damages from coal generation per kWh in 2005, 94 2-9 Coal combustion product beneficial use versus production, 104 2-10 U.S. natural gas well average productivity, 110 2-11 Natural gas production, consumption, and imports in the United States, 110 2-12 U.S. fatalities in oil and gas extraction from 1992 to 2007, 115 2-13 Injuries and illnesses in U.S. oil and natural gas extraction operations, 115 2-14 Distribution of aggregate damages in 2005 by decile: Natural- gas-fired plants, 119 2-15 Criteria-air-pollutant damages from gas generation for 498 plants, 2005 (USD 2007), 120 2-16 Distribution of criteria-air-pollutant damages per kWh of emissions for 498 natural-gas-fired plants, 2005, 121 2-17 Regional distribution of criteria-air-pollutant damages from gas generation per kWh, 122

OCR for page R1
xxii BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES 2-18 Locations of operating nuclear power reactors in the United States, 126 2-19 Locations of nuclear power reactor sites undergoing decommissioning in the United States, 126 3-1 U.S. transportation energy consumption by mode and vehicle in 2003, 155 3-2 Overview of petroleum consumption, production, and imports from 1949 to 2007, 166 3-3 Location of U.S. oil refineries, 167 3-4 Products made from one barrel of crude oil (gallons), 167 3-5 U.S. refinery and blender net production of refined petroleum products in 2007, 168 3-6 Conceptual stages of fuel life cycle, 170 3-7 Health effects and other nonclimate damages are presented by life-cycle component for different combinations of fuels and light- duty automobiles in 2005 and 2030, 212 3-8 Greenhouse gas emissions (grams CO2-eq)/VMT by life-cycle component for different combinations of fuels and light-duty automobiles in 2005 and 2030, 216 3-9 Aggregate operation, feedstock, and fuel damages of heavy-duty vehicles from air-pollutant emissions (excluding GHGs), 217 3-10 Aggregate operation, feedstock, and fuel damages of heavy-duty vehicles from GHG emissions, 218 4-1 Total U.S. energy use by sector, 2008, 224 4-2 U.S. energy consumption by source and sector, 2008 (quadrillion Btu), 225 4-3 Energy use, energy intensity, output, and structural effects in the industrial sector, 1985-2004, 230 4-4 Manufacturing sector consumption of natural gas as a fuel by industry, 2002, 232 4-5 Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States by sector, 239 5-1 Global anthropogenic GHG emissions, 251 5-2 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model projections of surface warming, 252 5-3 Global CO2 emissions for 1940 to 2000 and emissions ranges for categories of stabilization scenarios from 2000 to 2100; and the corresponding relationship between the stabilization target and the probable equilibrium global average temperature increase above preindustrial levels, 255 5-4 Multimodel projected patterns of precipitation changes, 262

OCR for page R1
xxiii BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES 5-5 Examples of regional impacts of climate change, 270 5-6 Mid-Atlantic wetland marginalization and loss as a consequence of sea-level rise, 273 5-7 Impact of increased temperature and precipitation on agricultural productivity, 282 5-8 Irreversible precipitation changes by region, 291 5-9 Dependence of GHG damage on the amount of temperature change, 298 5-10 Dependence of GHG damage, as a percent of global gross domestic product, on the amount of temperature change, 299 6-1 Illustration of monopsony, 327 7-1 Distribution of aggregate damages from coal-fired power plants by decile, 340 7-2 Air-pollution damages from coal-fired electricity generation for 406 plants in 2005, 341 7-3 Distribution of air-pollution damages per kilowatt-hour for 406 coal plants in 2005, 342 7-4 Distribution of aggregate damages from natural-gas-fired power plants by decile, 343 7-5 Air-pollution damages from natural-gas-fired electricity generation for 498 plants, 2005, 345 7-6 Health effects and other nonclimate damages are presented by life-cycle component for different combinations of fuels and light- duty automobiles in 2005 and 2030, 352 7-7 Greenhouse gas emissions (grams CO2-eq)/VMT by life-cycle component for different combinations of fuels and light-duty automobiles in 2005 and 2030, 355 B-1 Pollution abatement and cost per ton of abatement, 421 E-1 The Boone River Watershed, 472 TABLES 1-1 Committee Study Approach for Energy Sources and Consumption Sectors, 42 1-2 Illustrative Impacts of Producing Electricity from Coal, 46 1-3 Illustrative Impact Categories Pathways, 50 2-1 Net Electricity Generation by Energy, 65

OCR for page R1
xxix BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES 2-2 Energy for Electricity: Impacts and Externalities Discussed, Quantified, or Monetized, 70 2-3 Coal Classification by Type, 72 2-4 Five Leading Coal-Producing States, 2007, by Mine Type and Production, 73 2-5 Estimated Recoverable Reserves for the 10 States with the Largest Reserves by Mining Method for 2005, 74 2-6 Estimated Injuries, Illnesses, and Fatalities during Rail Transport of Coal for Electricity Power, 2007, 79 2-7 Distribution of Criteria-Air-Pollutant Damages Associated with Emissions from 406 Coal-Fired Power Plants in 2005, 89 2-8 Distribution of Criteria-Air-Pollutant Damages per Ton of Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Plants, 90 2-9 Distribution of Criteria-Air-Pollutant Damages per Kilowatt- Hour Associated with Emissions from 406 Coal-Fired Power Plants in 2005, 92 2-10 NOx and SO2 Emissions (2002) from Coal-Fired Electricity Generation by Age of Power Plant, 95 2-11 Distribution of Pounds of Criteria-Pollutant-Forming Emissions per Megawatt-Hour by Coal-Fired Power Plants, 2005, 97 2-12 2007 Coal Combustion Product (CCP) Production and Use Survey Results, 102 2-13 IPCC Range of Aggregate Costs for CO2 Capture, Transport, and Geological Storage, 106 2-14 Distribution of Criteria-Pollutant Damages Associated with Emissions from 498 Gas-Fired Power Plants in 2005, 118 2-15 Distribution of Criteria-Pollutant Damages per kWh Associated with Emissions from 498 Gas-Fired Power Plants in 2005, 118 2-16 Distribution of Pounds of Criteria-Pollutant-Forming Emissions per Megawatt-Hour by Gas-Fired Power Plants, 2005, 121 2-17 Distribution of Damages per Ton of Criteria-Pollutant-Forming Emissions by Gas-Fired Power Plants, 122 2-18 U.S. Nuclear Power Reactors Undergoing Decommissioning, 127 3-1 Vehicle-Fuel Technologies in the Committee’s Analysis, 162 3-2 Number of U.S. Aircraft, Vehicles, Vessels, and Other Conveyances, 169 3-3 Health and Other Non-GHG Damages from a Series of Gasoline and Diesel Fuels Used in Light-Duty Automobiles, 178 3-4 Health and Other Damages Not Related to Climate Change from a Series of Gasoline and Diesel Fuels Used in Heavy-Duty Vehicles, 179

OCR for page R1
xxx BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES 3-5 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2-eq) Emissions of GHGs from a Series of Gasoline and Diesel Fuels, 180 3-6 Feedstocks Identified in AEF Report and Partial List of Their Externalities, 183 3-7 Water Quality and Externalities Estimated for Ethanol Scenarios, 192 3-8 Estimated Ethanol Production from Feedstocks in the Boone River Watershed, 194 3-9 Monetized Land-Use Damages of the Boone River Case Study, 195 3-10 Comparison of Health and Other Non-GHG Damages from Conventional Gasoline to Three Ethanol Feedstocks, 196 3-11 Plausible Light-Duty-Vehicle Market Shares of Advanced Vehicles by 2020 and 2035, 199 3-12 Energy Use During Vehicle Manufacturing and Disposal of Light- Duty-Vehicles, 200 3-13 Comparison of Health and Other Non-GHG Damage Estimates for Hybrid- and Electric-Vehicle Types with Conventional Gasoline, 2005 and 2030, 203 3-14 Health and Other Non-GHG Damages from CNG Light-Duty Autos and Trucks (Values Reported in Cents/VMT), 206 3-15 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2-eq) Emissions of GHGs from CNG Autos and Light-Duty Trucks Compared with Reformulated Gasoline Vehicles (Grams/VMT), 207 3-16 Health and Other Non-GHG Damages from Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Autos Compared with Reformulated Gasoline Autos, 208 3-17 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2-eq) Emissions of GHGs from Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Autos Compared with Reformulated Gasoline Autos, 209 3-18 Relative Categories of Damages 2005 and 2030 for Major Categories of Light-Duty Fuels and Technologies, 210 3-19 Relative Categories of GHG Emissions in 2005 and 2030 for Major Categories of Light-Duty Fuels and Technologies, 215 4-1 U.S. Nonelectric Energy Consumption by Source and End-Use Sector: Years 2007 and 2030 (EIA Estimates) (Quadrillion Btu), 229 4-2 Residential Sector Natural Gas Use for Heat: National Damage Estimates from Air Pollutants (Excluding Greenhouse Gases) (Cents/MCF) (2007 USD). (Damage Estimated from 2002 NEI Data for 3,100 Counties), 234

OCR for page R1
xxxi BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES 4-3 Residential Sector Natural Gas Use for Heat: Regional Damage Estimates (Excluding Greenhouse Gases) (Cents/MCF). (Damage Estimated from 2002 NEI Data for 3,100 Counties), 236 4-4 Commercial Sector Natural Gas Use for Heat: National Damage Estimates from Air Pollutants (Excluding Greenhouse Gases) (Cents/MCF), 237 5-1 Characteristics of Post-Third Assessment Report (TAR) Stabilization Scenarios and Resulting Long-Term Equilibrium Global Average Temperature and the Sea-Level Rise Component from Thermal Expansion Only, 254 5-2 Climate-Related Observed Trends of Various Components of the Global Freshwater Systems, 265 5-3 Examples of Possible Impacts of Climate Change Due to Changes in Extreme Weather and Climate Events, Based on Projections to the Mid- to Late 21st Century, 268 5-4 Water Availability Effects from Climate Change for Selected Studies (Percent of Contemporaneous GDP Around 2100), 271 5-5 Values of the Benchmarking Parameter, 274 5-6 Benchmark Sea-Level Rise Estimates in FUND, 276 5-7 Estimates of Total Damage Due to Climate Change from Benchmark Warming (Percent Change in Annual GDP), 295 5-8 Marginal Global Damages from GHG Emissions: Estimates from Widely Used Models, 297 5-9 Indicative Marginal Global Damages from Current GHG Emissions ($/Ton CO2-eq), 302 5-10 Illustration of Ranges of Climate-Related Damages for Selected Categories of Energy Use in the United States, 2005, 307 6-1 Net Stock of Energy-Related Fixed Assets in 2007 ($Billions), 310 6-2 Estimates of the Average Cost of Outages, 312 6-3 LNG Infrastructure and Safety Record, 318 6-4 Average Number and Volume of Oil Spills on U.S. Soil, 1990- 1998, 320 6-5 Annual Averages for Significant Pipeline Incidents, 2002-2006, 322 6-6 Annual Averages for Pipelines per Ton Miles, 2002-2006, 323 6-7 U.S. Oil Dependence, 326 7-1 Relative Categories of Health and Other Nonclimate-Change Damages 2005 and 2030 for Major Categories of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuels and Technologies, 350

OCR for page R1
xxxii BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES 7-2 Relative Categories of GHG Emissions 2005 and 2030 for Major Categories of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuels and Technologies, 354 7-3 Monetized Damages Per Unit of Energy-Related Activity, 361 C-1 Epidemiology Studies Used in APEEP, 427 C-2 Concentration-Response Studies Used in APEEP, 428 C-3 Value of Human Health Effects in APEEP, 428 C-4 Value of Nonmarket Impacts of Air Pollution, 428 D-1 GREET 2.7a Vehicle Manufacturing Results for Cars, 436 D-2 GREET 2.7a Vehicle Manufacturing Results for SUVs, 436 D-3 GREET Energy and Emission Factors for Light-Duty Autos in 2005, 438 D-4 GREET Energy and Emission Factors for Light-Duty Trucks 1 in 2005, 442 D-5 GREET Energy and Emission Factors for Light-Duty Trucks 2 in 2005, 446 D-6 GREET Energy and Emission Factors for Light-Duty Autos in 2020, 450 D-7 GREET Energy and Emission Factors for Light-Duty Trucks 1 in 2020, 454 D-8 GREET Energy and Emission Factors for Light-Duty Trucks 2 in 2020, 458 D-9 Mobile6.2 Energy and Emission Factors for Heavy-Duty Vehicles in 2005, 462 D-10 Mobile6.2 Energy and Emission Factors for Heavy-Duty Vehicles in 2030, 463 D-11 Comparison of Emission Factors (g/VMT) for a Light-Duty Gasoline Automobile in 2005, 463 D-12 Comparison of Emission Factors (g/VMT) for a Light-Duty Diesel Automobile in 2005, 463 D-13 Mobile6.2 Ammonia Emissions (g/VMT), 465 E-1 Boone River Watershed Baseline Cropping Pattern, 472