TABLE 5-4 Water Availability Effects from Climate Change for Selected Studiesa (Percentage of Contemporaneous GDP Around 2100)

 

Cline 1992

Fankhauser 1995a

Mendelsohn and Neumann 1999

Mendelsohn and Williams 2004

Mendelsohn and Williams 2007

Titus 1992

Tol 1995

Tol 2002a

Warming, Cb

2.5

2.5

2.5

4.6-7.1

2.5-5.2

4.0

2.5

1.0

United States

.12

.29

.07

.01-.03

.20

n/a

.07

World

n/a

.24

n/a

.01-.03

.00-.02

n/a

n/a

.43

NOTES: n/a = values not available or not estimated. In some cases, estimates for the United States also include Canada.

aStern (2007) does not separate out individual categories within market and nonmarket impacts.

bWarming is relative to preindustrial (as opposed to current) temperatures.

SOURCE: Adapted from Aldy et al. 2009, with permission from the authors.

Boyer (1999, p. 4-13) argued that the damages from water availability can be set to zero, based on their survey of previous studies. The FUND model 3.0 measures water availability impacts for each of 16 regions using the following formula:

Equation 5-5

where


W = denotes the change in water resources in 1995 dollars in region r in year t,

Y = denotes income (in 1995 dollars),

T = global mean temperature,

α = benchmarking parameter,

τ = parameter measuring technological progress in water supply and demand (ranges from 0 to .01 with a preferred estimate of .005,

β = elasticity of impact with respect to income growth (ranging from .7 to 1 with a preferred estimate of .85),

γ = elasticity of impact with respect to temperature change (ranging from .5 to 1.5 with a preferred estimate of 1).



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