TABLE 5-6 Benchmark Sea-Level Rise Estimates in FUND

 

Cost Length (103 km)

Level of Protection (%)

Dry-land Loss (103 km2)

Dry-land Value (106 km2)

Wetland Loss (103 km2)

OECD-A

33

0.77

4.8 (2.4)

1.3 (0.6)

12.0 (8.6)

OECD-E

59

0.86

0.7 (0.4)

13.1 (6.6)

4.0 (2.3)

OECD-P

23

0.95

0.3 (0.4)

13.7 (6.7)

1.0 (1.1)

CEE&dSU

25

0.93

1.2 (2.7)

0.9 (0.5)

0.0 (0.0)

ME

6

0.30

0.6 (1.2)

0.5 (0.3)

0.0 (0.0)

LA

39

0.86

7.8 (7.1)

0.3 (0.2)

50.2 (36.4)

S&SEA

95

0.93

9.3 (9.6)

0.5 (0.3)

54.9 (48.0)

CPA

33

0.93

8.4 (15.1)

0.3 (0.2)

15.6 (17.1)

AFR

35

0.89

15.4 (18.4)

0.4 (0.2)

30.8 (14.8)

NOTES: Definitions of the regions (which correspond to the regions of FUND) are as follows: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-America (excluding Mexico) (OECD-A), OECD-Europe (OECD-E), OECD-Pacific (excluding South Korea) (OECD-P), Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (CEE&fSU), Middle East (ME), Latin America (LA), South and Southeast Asia (S&SEA), Centrally Planned Asia (CPA), and Africa (AFR).

climate change. The general inclination of stakeholders who take this position to assign zero or even negative discount rates creates the foundation for extraordinarily large damages. The steps to quantitatively test or reconcile these perspectives will probably be numerous and challenging.

Four widely used IAMs (RICE and DICE, MERGE (model for evaluating regional and global effects), FUND, and PAGE) all estimate damage from climate change on the basis of willingness to pay for ecosystem services. An alternative approach, which calculates the economic value lost from the ecosystem services degraded by climate change, is addressed in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2010), although these results are not quantitative in the sense that the output is damage per ton of CO2. All the published representations of ecological damages from climate change are highly simplified. Willingness to pay is typically based on data from one or a few countries, often the United States, and then scaled to other countries on the basis of an assumed relationship with GDP.

In the RICE and DICE models, human settlements and ecosystems are treated together. They assume that the capital value of climate-sensitive human settlements and ecosystems ranges from 5% to 25% of regional output. For the United States, the number is 10%; for island countries, and for countries with sensitive ecosystems, the number is higher. Willingness to pay to avoid a 2.5°C temperature change is assumed to be equal to 1% of the capital value of the vulnerable system (Nordhaus and Boyer 1999).



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