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FIGURE A13-3 Temporal presentation of cases and contacts in the school population under study, May 16-31, 2009 (n = 102).

FIGURE A13-3 Temporal presentation of cases and contacts in the school population under study, May 16-31, 2009 (n = 102).

SOURCE: Ministry of Health National Surveillance System.

estimated that the transmission to close contacts at home was 1.1 percent versus 8.7 percent in school. It was also found that the incubation period at school was 48 hours and that dissemination rate was R0 = 2.4.

By that time a large number of schools that had been affected or were highly suspected to be affected were identified, given the high interaction of students in extracurricular programs ranging from academics to sports and social activities (Figure A13-4).

Based on the school data and the estimated population of schools north of Greater Buenos Aires, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (CABA), a mathematical model estimated that of 100,000 people, 8,000 cases would appear in 13 days, which would be sufficient for spread through the general population. For this reason, the national health authorities recommended closing schools from June 8th to 19th in the indicated area. Unfortunately, this did not happen because health and education authorities in these jurisdictions did not believe the measure was appropriate.



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