TABLE B-2 The Study’s Long-Term Baseline by Fiscal Years, as Percentages of GDP (1965 through 2005 are actual)

Selected Years

Revenues

Social Security

Medicarea and Medicaid

Other Noninterest Spending

Net Interest

Total Outlays

Surplus (+) or Deficit (−)

Debt Held By Public

1965

17.0

2.5

0.0

13.4

1.3

17.2

−0.2

38.0

1970

19.0

2.9

0.8

14.1

1.4

19.3

−0.3

28.0

1975

17.9

4.1

1.2

14.5

1.5

21.3

−3.4

25.3

1980

19.0

4.3

1.6

13.8

1.9

21.7

−2.7

26.1

1985

17.7

4.5

2.1

13.1

3.1

22.8

−5.1

36.3

1990

18.0

4.3

2.4

11.9

3.2

21.8

−3.9

42.0

1995

18.5

4.5

3.4

9.6

3.2

20.7

−2.2

49.2

2000

20.9

4.2

3.2

8.7

2.3

18.4

2.4

35.1

2005

17.6

4.2

3.9

10.6

1.5

20.2

−2.6

37.5

2010

16.0

4.8

5.1

13.5

1.2

24.5

−8.5

60.9

2015

18.3

4.8

5.4

9.3

2.8

22.3

−4.0

70.4

2020

18.3

5.3

6.4

8.5

3.6

23.8

−5.5

78.8

2025

18.5

5.6

7.4

8.6

3.9

25.6

−7.1

95.0

2030

18.7

6.0

8.7

8.5

4.8

28.1

−9.4

117.6

2035

18.9

6.0

9.9

8.5

6.0

30.4

−11.5

146.5

2040

19.1

5.9

10.9

8.5

7.4

32.8

−13.7

180.2

2045

19.3

5.8

11.8

8.4

9.1

35.1

−15.8

218.2

2050

19.6

5.7

12.6

8.4

10.8

37.5

−17.9

259.2

2055

19.9

5.8

13.4

8.4

12.7

40.2

−20.4

303.8

2060

20.3

5.8

14.2

8.4

14.7

43.1

−22.9

351.7

2065

20.6

5.9

15.1

8.4

17.0

46.3

−25.7

403.4

2070

20.9

6.0

16.0

8.4

19.4

49.7

−28.8

460.4

2075

21.2

6.1

17.0

8.4

21.9

53.4

−32.2

521.5

2080

21.6

6.2

17.9

8.4

24.9

57.4

−35.9

590.5

2083

21.8

6.2

18.4

8.4

26.7

59.7

−38.0

633.8

aNet of offsetting receipts, notably including the premiums paid.

SOURCES: Data from Table B-1, CBO’s June 2009 long-term budget outlook, and staff calculations.



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