Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future

After 2019, total defense and domestic discretionary spending fluctuates slightly as a share of GDP in the study baseline (see Table F-1 in Appendix F). Correspondingly, spending also fluctuates slightly for Options 1-4, with the defense, domestic discretionary, and other mandatory

TABLE D-1 Defense, Domestic Discretionary, and Other Mandatory Spending, as a Percentage of GDP

Spending Category	2008	2019
Spending Category	Actual	Study Baseline	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Option 4
Defense	4.3	3.4	2.6	3.1	3.4	4.2
Domestic Discretionary	3.7	3.0	2.3	2.8	3.5	3.7
Other Mandatory	2.8	2.1	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.1
Total	10.8	8.5	6.9	7.9	9.0	10.0

TABLE D-2 Defense Spending, 2008-2019

Year	Baseline	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Option 4
In Billions of Dollars
2008^a	609	NA	NA	NA	NA
2009	671	NA	NA	NA	NA
2010	734	NA	NA	NA	NA
2011	755	NA	NA	NA	NA
2012	717	692	707	717	775
2013	684	637	665	684	794
2014	670	601	643	670	812
2015	673	581	637	673	827
2016	683	566	637	683	842
2017	693	551	638	693	856
2018	705	536	639	705	869
2019	717	545	650	717	881
As a Percentage of GDP
2008^a	4.3	NA	NA	NA	NA
2009	4.8	NA	NA	NA	NA
2010	5.1	NA	NA	NA	NA
2011	5.0	NA	NA	NA	NA
2012	4.5	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.9
2013	4.1	3.9	4.0	4.1	4.8
2014	3.9	3.5	3.7	3.9	4.7
2015	3.7	3.2	3.5	3.7	4.6
2016	3.7	3.0	3.4	3.7	4.5
2017	3.6	2.8	3.3	3.6	4.4
2018	3.5	2.7	3.2	3.5	4.3
2019	3.4	2.6	3.1	3.4	4.2
NOTE: NA = not applicable. ^aActual spending.

Table of Contents

Front Matter R1-R22

Summary 1-8

1 The Long-Term Challenge 9-34

2 Framing the Choices 35-48

3 Fiscal Prudence 49-64

4 Choices for a Sustainable Budget 65-74

5 Options for Medicare and Medicaid 75-104

6 Options for Social Security 105-128

7 Options for Defense and Other Domestic Spending 129-142

8 Revenue Options 143-172

9 Multiple Paths to Sustainability 173-186

10 Fiscal Stewardship: A Budget Process for the Long Term 187-208

11 What Should Be Done Now? 209-216

References 217-232

Appendix A: Fiscal Sustainability 233-236

Appendix B: Baseline Assumptions and Estimates 237-246

Appendix C: Social Security Options 247-260

Appendix D: Defense and Other Domestic Spending: Program Options 261-274

Appendix E: Revenue Options and Their Implications 275-298

Appendix F: Constructing Multiple Paths to Sustainability 299-320

Appendix G: International Experience with Long-Term Budgeting 321-328

Appendix H: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff 329-338