If the debt-to-GDP ratio is held constant, then:
If the debt-to-GDP ratio needs to be reduced—for example, by 1 percent a year—then:
Revenue levels can be specified once the target deficit is known:
All four scenarios allow the federal debt to grow as a percentage of GDP by 0.9 percent from 2011 to 2012; roughly stabilize it from 2012 to 2014; and then reduce it by 0.3 percent from 2014 to 2015, 0.4 percent from 2015 to 2016, 1 percent from 2016 to 2017, 4.3 percent from 2017 to 2018 (a large decrease made possible by a large projected repayment of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds in 2018, which the scenarios apply toward debt reduction), 0.9 percent from 2018 to 2019, 0.6 percent from 2019 to 2020, 0.3 percent from 2020 to 2021, 0.5 percent from 2021 to 2022, 0.1 percent from 2022 to 2023, and maintains it at a stable level from then on.
The transitional decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio from 2012 to 2023 is designed to produce a low scenario with a near-term revenue trajectory that is as smooth as possible and with revenue levels that are as close to the historical average of 18.5 percent as possible.
Table F-2 presents information about projected revenues, outlays, deficits, and debt in the study baseline. Table F-3 presents information about projected deficits, debt, and interest payments under the committee’s four scenarios. Table F-4 presents information about the differences in deficits, debt, and interest payments between the committee’s four scenarios and the study baseline. Tables F-5, F-7, F-9, and F-11, respectively, present information about revenues and outlays in the low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2, and high scenarios. Tables F-6, F-8, F-10, and F-12, respectively, present information about the differences in revenues and outlays between the low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2, and high scenarios and the study baseline.
The delay scenarios indicate, as simply as possible, the consequences of delaying changes. The same debt-to-GDP target is applied, and the same