TABLE F-4 Percentage Point Differences for Deficits, Debt, and Interest Payments Between the Committee’s Four Scenarios and the Study Baseline, as Shares of GDP

Selected Years

Deficit

Debt

Interest Payments

2008a

0.0

0.0

0.0

2009

0.0

0.0

0.0

2010

0.0

0.0

0.0

2011

0.0

0.0

0.0

2012

−1.1

−1.1

0.0

2013

−1.2

−2.2

−0.1

2014

−1.5

−3.6

−0.1

2015

−1.8

−5.3

−0.2

2016

−2.2

−7.2

−0.3

2017

−2.6

−9.5

−0.4

2018

−3.1

−12.3

−0.5

2019

−3.4

−15.2

−0.7

2020

−3.6

−18.2

−0.8

2021

−3.8

−21.3

−0.9

2022

−4.1

−24.6

−1.0

2023

−4.2

−27.9

−1.1

2024

−4.5

−31.3

−1.3

2025

−4.9

−35.0

−1.4

2030

−7.2

−57.6

−2.3

2035

−9.2

−86.5

−3.5

2040

−16.7

−120.2

−4.9

2045

−13.6

−158.2

−6.5

2050

−17.3

−199.3

−8.3

2055

−18.1

−243.8

−10.2

2060

−20.6

−291.7

−12.2

2065

−23.4

−343.4

−14.4

2070

−26.5

−400.5

−16.8

2075

−29.9

−461.5

−19.4

2080

−33.6

−530.5

−22.4

2083

−35.7

−573.9

−24.2

aActual spending.

Delayed Medicare and Medicaid Trajectories

Low Spending Trajectory

For the low spending path, for the 5-year delay, this path follows the study baseline until 2017, after which it grows at the same proportional rate as the zero percent ECG trajectory that is implemented in 2012. For the 10-year delay, this path follows the study baseline until 2022, after which it grows at the same proportional rate as the zero percent ECG spending trajectory.



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