Recommendation 4-2: DoD should strongly consider migrating at least one of its Title 10 war games to the emerging architectures of the commercial gaming industry.

The computational power in mobile devices is rapidly increasing due in part to the popularity of mobile gaming. Additional increases in cellular infrastructure and cellular network speeds are happening at a faster clip outside the United States. This country may soon find itself living with an inadequate cellular infrastructure due to events taking place in the commercial cellular market. Aging and outdated digital infrastructure is already showing signs of hindering progress. At the 2009 Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, the U.S.-based company announced multiple features and capabilities for the iPhone, such as Multimedia Messaging Services and tethering, that will appear outside the United States (on 22 major carriers), only to possibly later appear within the United States if the U.S. carrier allows making those features possible. The delay, based predominantly on concerns about supporting increased bandwidth requirements and billing plans, underscores unpreparedness for dealing with a rapidly changing technology and the increased pervasiveness of ubiquitous mobile computing. Additional technologies and capabilities thought to have the potential to greatly impact MS&G and related fields are called out in Box S-1 and expanded on via charts in this report.

Simulations in the context of computing are often thought of as running an executable to compute something on a macro or nano level. In contrast, games are meant to involve the player and to incorporate human behavior in a system. Using modeling, simulation, and games in tandem may facilitate better innovation, better accessibility to actors around the world, and better models of human system dynamics for commercial and defense systems.


Technology Forecasting Methodology in This Report

The report Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances (NRC, 2005) identifies a methodology for the intelligence community (IC) that has been widely accepted as a tool for finding and recognizing potential future national security threats from different emerging technologies. This methodology, described further in Appendix C, provides the IC with a means to gauge the potential implications of emerging technologies.

Specific technology topics addressed in the current report via the technology forecasting methodology include:

Chapter 2:

  • Collapsing the memory wall (a counterforce to Moore’s law)

  • Software for massively parallel architectures

Chapter 4:

  • Automation of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification

  • Vulnerability of physical assets given open-source software and information

  • Reverse engineering software

  • Cyber warfare through virtual worlds

  • Presimulated automated computer attacks

  • Behavioral modeling and political manipulation through virtual environments

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