BOX [C]-2

Proposed Methodology for Technology Warning


Joint Vision 2020a Operational Concepts and Information Superiority


What capabilities does the United States have that, if threatened, impact U.S. military preeminence?


What are the evolving technologies that, in the hands of U.S. adversaries, might be used to threaten an important U.S. military capability?


What are the observables that may indicate adversarial adoption or exploitation of such technologies?


Accessibility: How difficult would it be for an adversary to exploit the technology?


Maturity: How much is known about an adversary’s intentions to exploit the technology?


Consequence: What is the impact on U.S. military capability should the technology be employed by an adversary?


Identify: What are the relative resources to be applied to each emerging technology to support the technology warning process?


Establish and assign intelligence-information-collection requirements.


aSOURCE: JCS (2000).

CHART [C]-1 Example of Technology Assessment Chart



Brief description of technology

Brief description of observables




Level 1, 2, or 3

Technology Futures

Technology Watch

Technology Warning

Technology Alert

Short characterization


The Maturity variable focuses on the question How much is known about an adversary’s intentions to exploit the technology? It integrates what is known about an adversary’s actions, together with an evaluation of the state of play with respect to the technology of interest. At the highest level, called Technology Alert, an adversary has been identified and an operational capability has been observed. At the lowest level, Technology Futures, the potential for a technology-based threat has been identified, but no positive indicators have been observed. The Maturity assessment is divided into four categories: the first two (the

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement