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The Rise of Games and High-Performance Computing for Modeling and Simulation
THE RISE OF GAMES AND HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTING FOR MODELING AND SIMULATION
Committee on Modeling, Simulation, and Games
Standing Committee on Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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The Rise of Games and High-Performance Computing for Modeling and Simulation
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This is a report of work supported by contract HHM40205D0011, D0#10 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14777-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14777-8
Limited copies are available from:
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
National Research Council
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-3118
Additional copies are available from:
The National Academies Press
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Lockbox 285 Washington, DC 20055 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The Rise of Games and High-Performance Computing for Modeling and Simulation
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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The Rise of Games and High-Performance Computing for Modeling and Simulation
COMMITTEE ON MODELING, SIMULATION, AND GAMES
DELORES M. ETTER, Co-Chair,
Southern Methodist University
ROBERT J. HERMANN, Co-Chair,
Global Technology Partners, LLC
BRIAN BALLARD,
ARES Systems Group
PIERRE CHAO,
Renaissance Strategic Advisors
ROBERT GEHORSAM,
Forterra Systems, Inc.
SHARON C. GLOTZER,
University of Michigan
J. C. HERZ,
Batchtags, LLC
ALLISON A. HICKEY,
Accenture National Security Services
CHARLES HUDSON,
Serious Business
JAMES PEERY,
Sandia National Laboratories
BENJAMIN SAWYER,
Digitalmill, Inc.
ETHAN WATRALL,
Michigan State University
MICHAEL J. ZYDA,
University of Southern California
Staff
MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead Board Director
DANIEL TALMAGE, Study Director
CARTER FORD, Program Officer
LISA COCKRELL, Associate Program Officer
ERIN FITZGERALD, Associate Program Officer
SARAH CAPOTE, Research Associate
SHANNON THOMAS, Program Associate
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The Rise of Games and High-Performance Computing for Modeling and Simulation
Preface
Rapid expansion in computer processing, storage, communications, and display capability has resulted in the proliferation of new software for modeling, simulation, and games. Computational models have the capability to produce increasingly useful simulations to predict natural phenomena and engineered systems, study human behavior and physiology, or educate. An increased cultural acceptance of electronic games for a wide variety of applications—including entertainment, education, training, and rehabilitation—has elevated the video games industry into a position of unprecedented significance and legitimacy as a media form. In the meantime, the increased ubiquity of computing power has lowered the threshold for obtaining effective modeling and simulation capabilities. The globalization of technology and increased affordability of hardware have created an environment in which major developments can originate not only from recognized industry and academic sources in the United States but also from individuals in virtually any location in the world.
In spring 2008 the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to form a committee to investigate the possible significance to national security of new modeling, simulation, and games technologies. In this report the Committee on Modeling, Simulation, and Games assesses the current state of modeling, simulation, and games research and development worldwide. The committee also identifies ways in which these technologies could impact government and society in the future.
We wish to express our sincere appreciation to the members of the committee for their contributions to the preparation of this report and to the staff of DIA for their sponsorship. On behalf of the entire committee, we also thank NRC staff members Michael A. Clarke, Daniel Talmage, Erin Fitzgerald, Carter Ford, Lisa Cockrell, Sarah Capote, and Shannon Thomas for their support and assistance in the production of this report.
Delores M. Etter
Robert J. Hermann
Co-Chairs
Committee on Modeling, Simulation, and Games
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Steve Arnold, Polaris Ventures
R. Stephen Berry, NAS, University of Chicago
W. Peter Cherry, NAE, Science Applications International Corporation
David B. Kirk, NAE, NVIDIA
Gilman Louie, Alsop Louie Partners
Marisa Ong, Total Immersion Software
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by George Hornberger, NAE, Vanderbilt University, and Frank E. Brown, Raytheon Corporation. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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Contents
SUMMARY
1
1
A NEW PARADIGM IN MODELING AND SIMULATION
7
Introduction and Study Origin,
7
Motivation,
8
Structure of This Report,
9
References,
9
2
MODELING, SIMULATION, GAMES, AND COMPUTING
10
Introduction,
10
The Path to Exascale Computing,
11
The Evolution of Computing Architectures: From ENIAC to Multicore,
11
Multicore Processing,
12
CPU Accelerators: Graphical Processing Units,
14
CPU Accelerators: Field-Programmable Gate Arrays,
17
Roadmap for Future High-Performance Computing,
17
Software for Exascale Computing,
19
Future Technologies Enabled by Exascale Computing,
20
Human Capital in Science-Based Modeling and Simulation,
21
Human Capital in Computer and Video Games,
23
International Presence,
25
Industry Implications of Formal Academic Game Programs,
26
Final Thoughts,
27
References,
27
Published,
27
Unpublished,
29
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3
GAMES: BEYOND ENTERTAINMENT
30
Introduction,
30
Games and Culture,
31
Interactive and Participatory Culture,
31
Transmedia and Popular Culture,
33
Political and Other Simulation Games,
34
Outputs and Effects of Game Play,
35
Context of Game Play,
35
Understanding the Effects of Game Play,
36
Democratization,
39
Serious Games,
40
Cultural Attitudes Toward Serious Games,
41
Educational and Training Dimensions of Serious Games,
42
The Business of Games,
42
Evolution of the Games Industry,
43
Global Industry Trends,
44
International Competition in Game Development,
48
Final Thoughts,
51
References,
52
Published,
52
Unpublished,
54
4
DEFENSE MODELING, SIMULATION, AND GAMES
55
Introduction,
55
Scientific Modeling and Simulation,
56
Cyber and Kinetic Warfare,
59
Computer Security,
60
Cyber Propaganda Through Games,
60
Political Manipulation Through Games on the Internet,
61
War Games,
61
The Evolution of War Games,
61
Major Applications of Military War Games,
63
Enhanced Military Simulation,
67
Final Thoughts,
70
Take-away Warnings,
70
Take-away Opportunities,
71
References,
71
Published,
71
Unpublished,
72
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APPENDIXES
A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
75
B Meetings and Speakers
81
C Committee Methodology
85
D Key Recommendations from Previous Studies
92
E An Overview of Digital Games
98
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Acronyms and Abbreviations
AI artificial intelligence
AMD Advanced Micro Devices
API application programming interface
ARG alternate-reality games
ASC Advanced Simulation and Computing program
BMI body mass index
CONOPs concept of operations
COTS commercial off-the-shelf
CPU central processing unit
CRPG computer role-playing games
CUDA Compute Unified Device Architecture
DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
DIA Defense Intelligence Agency
DoD Department of Defense
DS dual screen
EFP Explosively Fired Projectile
ENIAC Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer
FLOPS floating-point operations per second
FPGA field-programmable gate array
FPS first-person shooter (game type)
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GPU graphical processing unit
HPC high-performance computing
IC intelligence community
IGDA Independent Game Developers Association
IP intellectual property
IP Internet Protocol
LAN large area network
M&S modeling and simulation
MMOG massively multiplayer online game
MMORPG massively multiplayer online role-playing game
MS&G modeling, simulation, and games
MUD Multi-User Dungeon
NNSA National Nuclear Security Administration
NRC National Research Council
NSF National Science Foundation
OS operating system
PC personal computer
PS3 Sony PlayStation 3
PSP PlayStation Portable
PSYOPs psychological operations
R&D research and development
RPG role-playing game
RTS real-time strategy (game)
SIMD single instruction, multiple data
TBS turn-based strategy (game)
TIGER Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review
TTPs tactics, techniques, and procedures
UQ uncertainty quantification
USC University of Southern California
V&V verification and validation
WWDC Apple Worldwide Developers Conference
WoW World of Warcraft
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