. "4 Scenario Analysis." Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies--Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2010.
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Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
BOX 4.1
Manufacturers’ Announced Plans for Electric Vehicles (Partial List)
BMW
PHEV 50-km (31-mile) range in electric mode.
98 lithium polymer cells with a 2.5-hour charge time.
Ford
PHEV scheduled for 2011.
General Motors/ChevroletVolt scheduled for release in late 2010.
PHEV 40-mile range in electric mode.
8-hour charge time at 120 V (3 hr at 240 V).
220 Li-ion battery cells.
Honda
PHEV scheduled for 2015.
Toyota
PHEV scheduled for 2012.
Nissan
EV scheduled for 2011.
Mitsubishi
EV released in Japan in 2009.
Hyundai
PHEV 40-mile range in electric mode.
BYD Co. (Chinese)
PHEV 60-mile range in electric mode.
Special charging stations will charge to 70 percent in 10 minutes.
PHEV Cases
In these two scenarios, PHEVs replace some of the vehicles in the Reference Case which is otherwise unchanged.
Maximum Practical Penetration
The Maximum Practical scenario uses the same annual sales rate for PHEVs as the Hydrogen Case for HFCVs except that sales are initiated in 2010, 2 years earlier.3 Auto companies are currently scheduling both PHEV-10 and PHEV-40 vehicles for introduction in that year (see Box 4.1).
This scenario assumes that manufacturers are able to rapidly increase production and that consumers find these vehicles acceptable. The Maximum Practical scenario would lead to approximately 240 million PHEVs on the road by 2050, the end of the scenario period, as shown in Figure 4.6. Such rapid penetration would require strong policy intervention because PHEVs will cost significantly more than comparable ICEVs and HEVs. At current gasoline prices, the fuel savings will not offset the higher initial cost. This policy intervention could be made in a variety of ways: mandates to vehicle manufacturers; subsidies to the purchasers
FIGURE 4.6 Penetration of PHEVs in the U.S. light-duty fleet.
3
The PHEV scenarios are described in more detail in Appendix C.
