FIGURE C.15 Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Maximum Practical case, Optimistic technical assumptions. The break-even year is 2028, and the buydown cost is $33 billion.

FIGURE C.15 Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Maximum Practical case, Optimistic technical assumptions. The break-even year is 2028, and the buydown cost is $33 billion.

FIGURE C.16 Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Probable case, Probable technical assumptions. The break-even year is 2028, and the buydown cost is $15 billion.

FIGURE C.16 Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Probable case, Probable technical assumptions. The break-even year is 2028, and the buydown cost is $15 billion.

the fuel used by the PHEV-10 is gasoline. The PHEV-40 results show a higher sensitivity to electricity price, as these vehicles travel over half their miles on electricity. Even if the electricity price was 12 cents per kWh instead of the base case (8 cents per kWh), breakeven for the PHEV-40 would be delayed only about 2 years.

The results for both PHEV-10 and PHEV-40 are sensitive to the assumed oil price. If oil prices rose 50 percent compared to our base case (price of $120-$180/bbl or $4-$6/gallon gasoline in the timeframe 2010-2030), the PHEV-40 would break even in 2029 (instead of 2040), and buydown costs would be reduced to about $100 billion (from $400 billion).

FIGURE C.17 Cash flow analysis for mixed case (70 percent PHEV-10s and 30 percent PHEV-40s), Maximum Practical case, Optimistic technical assumptions. The break-even year is 2032, and the buydown cost is $94 billion.

FIGURE C.17 Cash flow analysis for mixed case (70 percent PHEV-10s and 30 percent PHEV-40s), Maximum Practical case, Optimistic technical assumptions. The break-even year is 2032, and the buydown cost is $94 billion.

FIGURE C.18 Cash flow analysis for mixed case (70 percent PHEV-10s and 30 percent PHEV-40s), Probable Case, Probable technical assumptions. The break-even year is 2034, and the buy-down cost is $47 billion.

FIGURE C.18 Cash flow analysis for mixed case (70 percent PHEV-10s and 30 percent PHEV-40s), Probable Case, Probable technical assumptions. The break-even year is 2034, and the buy-down cost is $47 billion.

Finally, the break-even year and the buydown cost are sensitive to the assumed vehicle price and the rate of learning. In the low-cost case, the committee assumes that DOE goals are met by 2020. This implies an earlier break-even year and a much lower buydown cost for both the PHEV-10



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