TABLE C.2 Input Variables for Sensitivity Study

Parameter

Low

Base

High

Electricity price, $ per kWh

0.06

0.08

0.15

Gasoline Price $ per gala

0.5 × Base

1.0 × Base

2.0 × Base

Vehicle Incremental retail price, $b

DOE Goal (2020)

Optimistic

Probable

PHEV-10c

4,500

7,700 (2010)

5,100 (2030)

8,800 (2010)

5,700 (2030)

PHEV-40d

7,600

19,800 (2010)

12,300 (2030)

25,500 (2010)

15,500 (2030)

aDOE’s High Price Case (EIA, 2008, Annual Energy Outlook). See Figure 4.9, which shows gasoline prices ranging from $2.75 to $4.00 per gallon from 2010 to 2050. Corresponds to oil at $80 to $120 per barrel (2010-2030).

bSee Table 4.2.

cOEM cost of battery, $ per usable kWh: 2020, $500 (DOE goal); 2030, base, $720; 2030, high, $950.

dOEM cost of battery, $ per usable kWh: 2020, $300 (DOE goal); 2030, base, $720; 2030, high, $1000.

TABLE C.3 Range of Inputs Normalized to Base Value (divide values in Table C.2 by base value)

Variable

Low

Base

High

Electricity Price $ per kWh

0.75

1

1.875

Gasoline Price $ per gala

0.5 × Base

1.0 × Base

2.0 × Base

Vehicle Incremental retail price, $b

DOE Goal

Optimistic

Probable

PHEV-10c

Base 0.87

1

Base 1.13

PHEV-40d

Base 0.62

 

Base 1.25

aBase is DOE’s High Price Case (EIA, 2008, Annual Energy Outlook). See Figure 4.9, which shows gasoline prices ranging from $2.75 to $4.00 per gallon from 2010 to 2050, corresponding to oil at $80 to $120 per barrel (2010-2030).

bSee Table 4.2.

cOEM cost of battery, $ per usable kWh: 2020, $500 (DOE goal); 2030, base, $720; 2030, high, $950.

dOEM cost of battery, $ per usable kWh: 2020, $300 (DOE goal); 2030, base, $720; 2030, high, $1000.

FIGURE C.19 PHEV-10: Sensitivity of break-even year to changes in input variables.

FIGURE C.19 PHEV-10: Sensitivity of break-even year to changes in input variables.

FIGURE C.20 PHEV-40: Sensitivity of break-even year to changes in input variables.

FIGURE C.20 PHEV-40: Sensitivity of break-even year to changes in input variables.

FIGURE C.21 PHEV-10: Sensitivity of buydown cost to changes in input variables.

FIGURE C.21 PHEV-10: Sensitivity of buydown cost to changes in input variables.



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