The workshop attendees and committee believe that the forecasting system should be built and funded according to a start-up model, whereby the government provides seed-level financing to build a working 1.0 version of the system. Beginning the project with minimal resources forces the development team to make tough decisions up front and to focus the effort on developing and perfecting core system features. The leaders in charge of the system should be forced to seek additional outside funding sources, ensuring that the system is robust enough in its early stages to inspire confidence and attract sponsorship. Once developed, the system needs to be able to sustain itself by providing enough ongoing value to attract continual sponsorship from both government and other parties (including governments, corporations, institutions, and organizations) to cover the cost of operating, maintaining, and improving the system.
Key Recommendation. The Department of Defense and the intelligence community should begin the process of building a persistent forecasting system by selecting leadership and a small, independent, development team. The team should be given seed-level funding to establish an organizational structure and business plan and build a working 1.0 version of a disruptive technology forecasting system. The organization should have to attract additional funds from domestic and foreign corporate, nonprofit, or government sources. (Recommendation 3-6)
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