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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2 (2010)

Chapter: Appendix B Meetings and Speakers

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
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Appendix B
Meetings and Speakers

The agendas and speakers at meetings 1, 2, and 3 held by the Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies prior to and during the writing of its first report appear in Appendix B of that original report—Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies (published by the National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., in 2010). The committee’s first three meetings were held on October 15-16, 2007; February 26-27, 2008; and May 28-29, 2008, respectively.

This appendix presents the agendas and speakers at meetings 4 through 10 held by the committee in preparation for the writing of this second report. For a separate list of the attendees at and information on the transcripts of the one-day Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Workshop held by the committee on November 5, 2009, see Appendixes C through F in this volume.


MEETING 4


October 7, 2008

Alsop Louie Partners

San Francisco, California


Writing Meeting


MEETING 5


November 6-7, 2008

Keck Center of the National Academies

Washington, D.C.


X2: Threats, Opportunities, and Advances in Science and Technology

Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future


Future of Science—Year 1

Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
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X2 Project: Year 1 Report

Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future


Palantir Demonstration

Trae Stephens, Palantir Technologies


Blue Horizons (BH) II 2008 Final Report

Theodore Hailes, Center for Strategy and Technology, Air War College


The Impact of Future Technology

Ruoyi Zhou, Almaden Research, IBM


Cultural Impacts of the Internet

Timothy Mack, World Future Society


MEETING 6


January 7-8, 2009

Beckman Center of the National Academies

Irvine, California


X2: Threats, Opportunities, and Advances in Science and Technology

Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future


Implications of Financing to Disruptive Energy Technologies

Preston Roper, Tioga Energy


Prediction, Expectation, … and Surprise

Eric Horvitz, Adaptive Systems and Interaction Group, Microsoft Research


The New Global Challengers, and Globality

David Michael, Boston Consulting Group


Road to Cost Effective PV

Ajeet Rohatgi, Suniva, Inc.


An Emerging Disruptive Technology: Fuel Cells

Scott Samuelsen, Henry Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, Irvine


MEETING 7


March 3-4, 2009

National Academy of Sciences Building

Washington, D.C.


Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, NAS Committee Update

Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×

Science and Technology Future

John Retelle, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies


Evaluating Disruptive Technologies in the Healthcare Industry (Teleconference)

Molly Coye, Health Technology Center


Globalization and China’s Emerging Technological Trajectory: Issues and Implications

Denis Simon, School of International Affairs, Pennsylvania State University


Disruptive Technologies: Trends and Predictions

James Lewis, Technology and Public Policy Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies


Practical Forecasting Tips

Lawrence Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc.


Technology Forecasting in the Telecommunications Industry

Lawrence Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc.


SRI’s Process for “Forecasting” Disruptive Innovation

Norman Winarsky, SRI International


MEETING 8


June 30-July 1, 2009

Keck Center of the National Academies

Washington, D.C.


Renewable Energy: Maintech, not Cleantech

Vinod Khosla, Khosla Ventures


Innovation Global Technologies

Mark Minevich, Billion Minds Foundation, Going Global Ventures


Defense Planning Strategies

Christopher A. Preble, Cato Institute


Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, NAS Committee Update

Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future


A Science Fiction Writer’s Perspective of the Future (Telecon)

Bruce Sterling, Writer


KAUST 21st Century Research University on the Shores of the Red Sea

Ken Minneman, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology


Thoughts on Disruptive Technologies

Maren Leed, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×

MEETING 9


August 3-4, 2009

Keck Center of the National Academies

Washington, D.C.


Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050, An Era of Revolutionary Change, Scenario Thinking

Jeremy Bentham, Royal Dutch Shell


Why Have Some States Opted for Nuclear Weapons While Others Have Renounced Them?

Etel Solingen, University of California, Irvine


A Multidimensional Overview of Complex Undertakings

John Hofmeister, Citizens for Affordable Energy


U.S. National Security in the 21st Century

David J. Williams, Military Science Fiction, Writer


DTWS Briefing

Ever Morales, Defense Intelligence Agency


Forecasting the Technology Revolution

William Halal, George Washington University, TechCast LLC


Prediction Is Difficult, Especially About the Future

Bernard Meyerson, IBM Systems and Technology Group


Science and Technology Development, From the Combatant Command Perspective

Martin Drake, U.S. Central Command


Remarks to the NRC Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies

Benjamin Riley, Rapid Reaction Technology Office


MEETING 10


Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Workshop

November 5-6, 2009

Federal Reserve Bank Building

San Francisco, California


See Appendix C in this volume for information on the workshop attendees and Appendixes D and E for the unedited transcripts of the workshop, which are reproduced on the CD attached to the inside back cover of this report and in the PDF available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id+12834.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
Page 70
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
Page 71
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
Page 72
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
Page 73
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The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing.

The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

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