Appendix B
Meetings and Speakers

The agendas and speakers at meetings 1, 2, and 3 held by the Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies prior to and during the writing of its first report appear in Appendix B of that original report—Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies (published by the National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., in 2010). The committee’s first three meetings were held on October 15-16, 2007; February 26-27, 2008; and May 28-29, 2008, respectively.

This appendix presents the agendas and speakers at meetings 4 through 10 held by the committee in preparation for the writing of this second report. For a separate list of the attendees at and information on the transcripts of the one-day Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Workshop held by the committee on November 5, 2009, see Appendixes C through F in this volume.


MEETING 4


October 7, 2008

Alsop Louie Partners

San Francisco, California


Writing Meeting


MEETING 5


November 6-7, 2008

Keck Center of the National Academies

Washington, D.C.


X2: Threats, Opportunities, and Advances in Science and Technology

Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future


Future of Science—Year 1

Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future



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OCR for page 70
Appendix B Meetings and Speakers The agendas and speakers at meetings 1, 2, and 3 held by the Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies prior to and during the writing of its first report appear in Appendix B of that original report— Per- sistent Forecasting of Disruptie Technologies (published by the National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., in 2010). The committee’s first three meetings were held on October 15-16, 2007; February 26-27, 2008; and May 28-29, 2008, respectively. This appendix presents the agendas and speakers at meetings 4 through 10 held by the committee in preparation for the writing of this second report. For a separate list of the attendees at and information on the transcripts of the one-day Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Workshop held by the committee on November 5, 2009, see Appendixes C through F in this volume. MEETINg 4 October 7, 2008 Alsop Louie Partners San Francisco, California Writing Meeting MEETINg 5 November 6-7, 2008 keck Center of the National Academies Washington, D.C. X2: Threats, Opportunities, and Advances in Science and Technology Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future Future of Science—year 1 Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future 0

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 aPPENDIX B X2 Project: year 1 Report Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future Palantir Demonstration Trae Stephens, Palantir Technologies blue Horizons (bH) II 2008 Final Report Theodore Hailes, Center for Strategy and Technology, Air War College The Impact of Future Technology Ruoyi Zhou, Almaden Research, IBM Cultural Impacts of the Internet Timothy Mack, World Future Society MEETINg 6 January 7-8, 2009 beckman Center of the National Academies Irvine, California X2: Threats, Opportunities, and Advances in Science and Technology Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future Implications of Financing to Disruptive Energy Technologies Preston Roper, Tioga Energy Prediction, Expectation, . . . and Surprise Eric Horvitz, Adaptive Systems and Interaction Group, Microsoft Research The New global Challengers, and globality David Michael, Boston Consulting Group Road to Cost Effective Pv Ajeet Rohatgi, Suniva, Inc. An Emerging Disruptive Technology: Fuel Cells Scott Samuelsen, Henry Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, Irvine MEETINg 7 March 3-4, 2009 National Academy of Sciences building Washington, D.C. Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, NAS Committee update Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future

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 PErSISTENT FOrECaSTINg OF DISrUPTIVE TECHNOlOgIES–rEPOrT  Science and Technology Future John Retelle, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies Evaluating Disruptive Technologies in the Healthcare Industry (Teleconference) Molly Coye, Health Technology Center globalization and China’s Emerging Technological Trajectory: Issues and Implications Denis Simon, School of International Affairs, Pennsylvania State University Disruptive Technologies: Trends and Predictions James Lewis, Technology and Public Policy Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies Practical Forecasting Tips Lawrence Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc. Technology Forecasting in the Telecommunications Industry Lawrence Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc. SRI’s Process for “Forecasting” Disruptive Innovation Norman Winarsky, SRI International MEETINg 8 June 30-July 1, 2009 keck Center of the National Academies Washington, D.C. Renewable Energy: Maintech, not Cleantech Vinod Khosla, Khosla Ventures Innovation global Technologies Mark Minevich, Billion Minds Foundation, Going Global Ventures Defense Planning Strategies Christopher A. Preble, Cato Institute Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, NAS Committee update Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future A Science Fiction Writer’s Perspective of the Future (Telecon) Bruce Sterling, Writer kAuST 21st Century Research university on the Shores of the Red Sea Ken Minneman, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thoughts on Disruptive Technologies Maren Leed, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies

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 aPPENDIX B MEETINg 9 August 3-4, 2009 keck Center of the National Academies Washington, D.C. Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050, An Era of Revolutionary Change, Scenario Thinking Jeremy Bentham, Royal Dutch Shell Why Have Some States Opted for Nuclear Weapons While Others Have Renounced Them? Etel Solingen, University of California, Irvine A Multidimensional Overview of Complex undertakings John Hofmeister, Citizens for Affordable Energy u.S. National Security in the 21st Century David J. Williams, Military Science Fiction, Writer DTWS briefing Ever Morales, Defense Intelligence Agency Forecasting the Technology Revolution William Halal, George Washington University, TechCast LLC Prediction Is Difficult, Especially About the Future Bernard Meyerson, IBM Systems and Technology Group Science and Technology Development, From the Combatant Command Perspective Martin Drake, U.S. Central Command Remarks to the NRC Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Benjamin Riley, Rapid Reaction Technology Office MEETINg 10 Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Workshop November 5-6, 2009 Federal Reserve bank building San Francisco, California See Appendix C in this volume for information on the workshop attendees and Appendixes D and E for the unedited transcripts of the workshop, which are reproduced on the CD attached to the inside back cover of this report and in the PDF available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id+12834.