August 3-4, 2009

Keck Center of the National Academies

Washington, D.C.

Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050, An Era of Revolutionary Change, Scenario Thinking

Jeremy Bentham, Royal Dutch Shell

Why Have Some States Opted for Nuclear Weapons While Others Have Renounced Them?

Etel Solingen, University of California, Irvine

A Multidimensional Overview of Complex Undertakings

John Hofmeister, Citizens for Affordable Energy

U.S. National Security in the 21st Century

David J. Williams, Military Science Fiction, Writer

DTWS Briefing

Ever Morales, Defense Intelligence Agency

Forecasting the Technology Revolution

William Halal, George Washington University, TechCast LLC

Prediction Is Difficult, Especially About the Future

Bernard Meyerson, IBM Systems and Technology Group

Science and Technology Development, From the Combatant Command Perspective

Martin Drake, U.S. Central Command

Remarks to the NRC Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies

Benjamin Riley, Rapid Reaction Technology Office


Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Workshop

November 5-6, 2009

Federal Reserve Bank Building

San Francisco, California

See Appendix C in this volume for information on the workshop attendees and Appendixes D and E for the unedited transcripts of the workshop, which are reproduced on the CD attached to the inside back cover of this report and in the PDF available at

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