2005, 2006, 2007). Those categories of association have gained wide acceptance for more than a decade by Congress, government agencies (particularly the VA), researchers, and veterans groups.
The five categories below describe different levels of association and present a common message: the validity of an association is likely to vary to the extent to which common sources of spurious associations could be ruled out as the reason for the observed association. Accordingly, the criteria for each category express a degree of confidence based on the extent to which sources of error were reduced. The committee discussed the evidence and reached consensus on the categorization of the evidence for each health outcome in Chapter 4.
Evidence is sufficient to conclude that a causal relationship exists between being deployed to the Gulf War and a health outcome. The evidence fulfills the criteria for sufficient evidence of a causal association in which chance, bias, and confounding can be ruled out with reasonable confidence. The association is supported by several of the other considerations used to assess causality: strength of association, dose-response relationship, consistency of association, temporal relationship, specificity of association, and biologic plausibility.
Evidence suggests an association, in that a positive association has been observed between deployment to the Gulf War and a health outcome in humans; however, there is some doubt as to the influence of chance, bias, and confounding.
Some evidence of an association between deployment to the Gulf War and a health outcome in humans exists, but this is limited by the presence of substantial doubt regarding chance, bias, and confounding.
The available studies are of insufficient quality, validity, consistency, or statistical power to permit a conclusion regarding the presence or absence of an association between deployment to the Gulf War and a health outcome in humans.
There are several adequate studies, covering the full range of levels of exposure that humans are known to encounter, that are consistent in not showing an association between deployment to the Gulf War and a health outcome. A conclusion of no association is inevitably limited to the conditions, levels of exposure, and length of observation covered by the available studies. In addition, the possibility of a very small increase in risk at the levels of exposure studied can never be excluded.