Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

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The Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census Program of Evaluations and Experiments (CPEX) wishes to thank the many people who have contributed to our work. The panel is indebted to former Deputy Director Preston Jay Waite’s support during the developmental stage of the study and to the continued support from Daniel Weinberg, assistant director for decennial census and American Community Survey. Deborah Bolton and Randall Neugebauer ably served as principal liaisons between the Census Bureau and the panel, assisted by Gary Chappell, Joyce Price, Jennifer Reichert, and Donna Souders. All of these Census Bureau staff were responsive to requests from the panel for help in the development of agendas, the collection of supporting materials, and assistance with other logistical details. They have been a pleasure to work with.

Also, a number of Census Bureau personnel provided extremely useful presentations and supporting materials during the panel’s meetings in April 2007, July 2007, April 2008, July 2008, November 2008, and February 2009. In this regard, we would like to thank Teresa Angueira, Michael Bentley, Larry Cahoon, Joan Hill, Elizabeth Martin, Mary Mulry, Manuel de la Puente, Jennifer Reichert, Courtney Reiser, Annetta Clark Smith, and Frank Vitrano. Many of these individuals, along with others, also contributed to three very productive small group meetings of the panel (held in July 2007), and here we would like to mention interactions with Nancy Bates, William Bell, Sharon Boyer, Mary Destasio, Donna Kostanich, Laurel Schwede, Jennifer Tancreto, and Jim Treat. We would like to single out Jim Treat to thank him for his help in learning about a number of disparate areas of census planning, experimentation, and evaluation.

Our panel also benefited from the contributions of a number of outside speakers at our plenary meetings who gave generously of their talents. We thank Mick Couper, University of Michigan, and John Czajka, Mathe-

matica Policy Research, Inc., for their thoughtful presentations on Internet data collection and administrative records, respectively. Rosemary Bender of Statistics Canada provided useful insight on census research in Canada, contributing to a discussion organized by panel member Ivan Fellegi. Finally, Marios Hadjieleftheriou of AT&T spoke about the possible structure of a master trace system and the use of such systems in industry.

We would like to thank Constance Citro, along with Jay Waite, for developing the study. In addition, Connie participated actively in our panel meetings and helped with writing and editing this report, providing her usual insightful comments and suggestions. Her knowledge and experience of census history and procedures proved to be an essential and invaluable addition to our deliberations. We would also like to thank Meyer Zitter, consultant to the panel, for also providing important, experienced perspectives on the census and in particular for his advice on the potential use of administrative records in census taking. We express our gratitude to Agnes Gaskin, who has seen to it that the meetings of the panel run as smoothly as possible, facilitating the travel and other needs of the panel members, and formatting this report. The panel is also indebted to Christine McShane, who provided expert technical editing of the draft report.

Michael Cohen and Daniel Cork served as extraordinarily effective and essential co-directors for the work of the panel. They admirably fulfilled their responsibility for compiling, organizing and presenting most of the background material and basic research appearing in the report, and for skillfully organizing and drafting the report so as to integrate the panel’s opinions and concerns along with our individual contributions. They were responsible from the side of the panel in arranging our cooperative interactions with the Census Bureau, which have been essential in our deliberations. And their experience and common sense helped keep us on track and focused as a panel during meetings and during the process of writing our interim and final reports.

Finally, it has been a pleasure interacting with a very talented, energetic, and collaborative panel as we considered plans for evaluation of the 2010 census and for research and development to be carried out in the next decade to achieve as cost effective as possible a census in 2020.

This final report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the

following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Betsy Ancker-Johnson, vice president (retired), General Motors Corporation; John L. Czajka, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC; Shoreh Elhami, GIS director, Delaware County Auditor’s Office, Delaware, OH; Benjamin King, statistical consultant, Durham, NC; Daniel B. Levine, Statistics, Westat, Inc., Rockville, MD; Betsy Martin, consultant, Alexandria, VA; C. Matthew Snipp, Department of Sociology, Stanford University; and Alan M. Zaslavsky, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School.

In addition, we thank the following individuals who served as reviewers for Experimentation and Evaluation Plans for the 2010 Census: Interim Report, which is reprinted in Part II of this volume: C.A. (Al) Irvine, consultant, San Diego, CA; Benjamin King, statistical consultant, Durham, NC; J. Michael Oakes, Division of Epidemiology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis; Joseph Salvo, Population Division, New York City Department of City Planning, New York City, NY; Robert Scardamalia, Center for Research and Information Analysis, Department of Economic Development, Albany, NY; Frederick J. Scheuren, consultant, Alexandria, VA; and Judith M. Tanur, Department of Sociology and Behavior, State University of New York, Stony Brook. Finally, we thank the reviewers of the panel’s February 2009 letter report, which is reprinted as Part III of this volume: Barbara A. Bailar, independent consultant, Washington, DC; John L. Czajka, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC; C.A. (Al) Irvine, consultant, San Diego, CA; Benjamin King, statistical consultant, Durham, NC; and Colm A. O’Muircheartaigh, Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies, The University of Chicago.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Samuel H. Preston, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, and William F. Eddy, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Lawrence D. Brown, Chair

Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census

Program of Evaluations and Experiments

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