Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia

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Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia (2011)
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC)

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. "1 Introduction." Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2011.

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Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia

TABLE 1.2 List of Observed Impacts Attributed to Global Warming by IPCC AR4 WG2 with Results from Two Studies Using Formal D&A Methodology

Driving Change in Physical Climate	Impacts	Reference
Changing snow/ice/frozen ground	Increase in number and extension of glacial lakes, increase in avalanches and instability of permafrost, and changes in polar ecosystems	IPCC AR4 WG2 (IPCC, 2007b)
Warmer temperatures	Increase in runoff and anticipated snow melt in spring; increase in temperatures in lakes and rivers	IPCC AR4 WG2 (IPCC, 2007b)
Warmer temperatures	Earlier timing of spring event (foliage, migrations, and egg-laying) and range shifts (poleward and upward) of terrestrial biological systems	IPCC AR4 WG2 (IPCC, 2007b)
Rising ocean water temperatures/changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels, and circulation	Shifts in the ranges of algae/plankton/fish abundance in high-latitude oceans and high-latitude/high-elevation lakes	IPCC AR4 WG2 (IPCC, 2007b)
Increase in atmospheric concentration of CO₂	Ocean acidification (no effect on ocean life documented yet	IPCC AR4 WG2 (IPCC, 2007b)
Summer temperature warming in Canada	Increase in area burned by forest fires in Canada	Gillett et al., 2004
Increase in temperature	Increase in growing season length	Christidis et al., 2007
NOTE: Confidence levels are not available because the IPCC AR4 WG2 did not supply them.

positive spatial correlation between said impacts and regionally differentiated warming.

This reasoning is at the basis of the list of impacts attributed to global warming by IPCC AR4 WG2 in its Summary for Policy Makers, which we list, together with results from two studies that applied formal D&A methodology,² in Table 1.2.

²	Of these two studies, the first is reviewed by WG,2 but its results are not explicitly listed in its Summary for Policy Makers, SPM; the second appeared later than the release of the report.