. "3 Building Blocks of Intraseasonal to Interannual Forecasting." Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2010.
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Assessment of Interseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
Access to archived hindcasts and real-time forecasts is required to tailor climateinformation to the needs of decision makers. Information regarding forecast quality and skill varies widely among forecast systems. Comparison among systems is critical for identifying opportunities for model improvement, as well as novel combinations of forecast models that may improve quality.
Subjective intervention into forecasts needs to be minimized and documented. The subjective component can limit reproducibility, restricting retrospective comparison of forecast systems. Although there are time constraints around issuing forecasts, it is helpful to have written documentation of the subjectivity of forecast preprocessing and post-processing to assess the relative performance of the inputs and outputs.
