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References Agudelo, P. A., C. D. Hoyos, P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry. 2008. Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability. Climate Dynamics 32(6):855–872, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0447-x. Allen, M., J. Kettleborough, and D. Stainforth. 2005. Model error in weather and climate forecasting. Pp. 391-427 in Predictability of Weather and Climate, T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Alves, O., M. Balmaseda, D. Anderson and T. Stockdale. 2004. Sensitivity of dynamical seasonal forecasts to ocean initial conditions. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meterological Society 130:647668. Anderson, J., H. van den Dool, A. Barnston, W. Chen, W. Stern, and J. Ploshay. 1999. Present day capabilities of numerical and statistical models for atmospheric extratropical seasonal simulation and prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80:1349– 1362. Anderson, D., T. Stockdale, M. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, F. Vitart, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Hagedorn, T. Jung, A. Vidard, A. Troccoli, and T.N. Palmer, 2003: Comparison of the ECMWF seasonal forecast systems 1 and 2, including the relative performance for the 1997/8 El Niño. Tech. Memo.404, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 93 pp. Anderson D., M. Balmaseda, T. Stockdale, L. Ferranti, F. Vitart, K. Mogensen, F. Molteni, F. Doblas-Reyes, and A. Vidard. 2007. Development of the ECMWF seasonal forecast System 3. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 503. Reading, UK: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Available at http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/show?id=87744, accessed June 23, 2010. Applequist, S., G. E. Gahrs, R. L. Pfeffer, and X-F Niu. 2002. Comparison of methodologies for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting. Weather and Forecasting 17:783–799. Athanasiadis, P. J. and M. H. P. Ambaum. 2009. Linear contribution of different time scales to teleconnectivity. Journal of Climate 22, 3720–3728. Atlas, R., N. Wolfson, and J. Terry. 1993. The effect of SST and soil moisture anomalies on GLA model simulations of the 1988 U.S. summer drought. Journal of Climate 6:2034– 2048. Baldwin, M. P., and T. J. Dunkerton. 1999. Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 104:30937–30946. Baldwin, M. P., D. W. J. Thompson, E. F.Shuckburgh, W. A. Norton, and N. P. Gillett. 2003a. Weather from the Stratosphere? Science 301:317–318. Baldwin, M. P., D. B. Stephenson, D. W. J.Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton,A. O’Neill. 2003b. Stratospheric memory and extended-range weather forecasts. Science 301:636–640. Balmaseda, M.A., M. K. Davey, and D. L. T. Anderson. 1995. Decadal and Seasonal 143

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