TABLE S.1 Current and Near-Term Capabilities for Estimating National Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Gas

Major Sectors or Activities

Method

Current Uncertainty for Annual Emissionsa

Possible Improvements in 3-5 Years

Uncertainty of Improved Methods

CO2

Total anthropogenic

UNFCCC inventory

1 (developed countries)b

Adopt most accurate methods in all countries

1

CO2

Fossil-fuel combustion

UNFCCC inventory

1-2 (developed countries)

Adopt most accurate methods in all countries

1

CO2

Fossil-fuel combustion

Atmospheric measurements and models

4-5

Develop improved tracer-transport inversion through new observations (14CO2, additional ground stations, Orbiting Carbon Observatory [OCO] replacement) and data assimilation

1-3 (annual)

1-2 (decadal change)

CO2

Large local sources (e.g., cities, power plants)

Atmospheric measurements and models

5

Develop and deploy a CO2 satellite program, including an OCO replacement, new in situ measurements in cities, and a research program to guide network design and satellite validation

2 (annual)

1 (decadal change)

CO2

Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use (AFOLU) net emissions

UNFCCC inventory

1-4 (developed countries)

Adopt most accurate methods and activity data; improved emission factors through research and comprehensive ecosystem inventories

1-3

CO2

AFOLU

Atmospheric measurements and models

5

Develop improved tracer-transport inversion through new satellite and in situ observations

4-5

CO2

AFOLU

Land-use measurements and models

2-4

Develop improved observations, data assimilation, and models with ecosystem research

2-3

CO2

Deforestation and degradation source, afforestation sink

Land-use measurements and models

2-4 (forest area change)

3-4 (emissions)

Develop improved observations, Landsat continuity, data assimilation, and models with ecosystem research

1-2 (forest area change)

2 (emissions)

CH4

Total anthropogenic

UNFCCC inventory

2-3 (developed countries)

Adopt most accurate methods and activity data and improved emission factors through research

1-3

CH4

Total anthropogenic

Atmospheric measurements and models

3-5

Develop improved tracer-transport models, new satellite and in situ observations, and improved emission models through research

2-3

CH4

Energy, industrial processes, and waste

UNFCCC inventory

1-5 (developed countries)

Adopt most accurate methods and activity data and improved emission factors through research

1-2

CH4

AFOLU

UNFCCC inventory

2-4 (developed countries)

Adopt most accurate methods and activity data and improved emission factors through research

2-3

N2O

Total anthropogenic

UNFCCC inventory

2-5 (developed countries)

Adopt most accurate methods and activity data and improved emission factors through research

2-4

N2O

Total anthropogenic

Atmospheric measurements and models

4-5

Develop improved tracer-transport and emission models, additional observations

3-5

N2O

Energy and industrial processes

UNFCCC inventory

3-5 (developed countries)

Adopt most accurate methods and activity data and improved emission factors through research

3-4

N2O

AFOLU

UNFCCC inventory

2-5 (developed countries)

Adopt most accurate methods and activity data and improved emission factors through research

2-4

CFCs, PFCs, HFCs, and SF6

Industrial processes

UNFCCC inventory

1-4 (developed countries)

Adopt most accurate methods in all countries

1-3



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