2
Socioeconomic Research and Capacity

Understanding and addressing socioeconomic aspects of weather prediction is critical for the weather community to reach its goals and for society to fully benefit from advances in weather prediction. To date, the weather prediction community and society are still far from achieving the full potential that comes from integrating social sciences expertise with weather research and research to operations (R2O).

As discussed in the introduction, weather and weather information affect a wide range of socioeconomic sectors and decisions. Socioeconomic considerations are fundamental in determining how, when, and why the weather information produced by research and R2O activities is, or is not, used. Thus, socioeconomics is an extremely important component of weather research and the transfer of research results to operations (and also the transfer of operations knowledge and experience back to research—O2R). Yet the weather prediction enterprise still lacks interdisciplinary capacity to understand and address socioeconomic issues. As a result, socioeconomic expertise is underutilized in the weather community, and the potential value of socioeconomic considerations in planning and executing weather activities has not been fully achieved. In the same way that there are major gaps in weather research and R2O, there are also gaps in research and R2O in socioeconomics of weather that, when filled, will substantially benefit the weather community and, more importantly, society at large. Unless and until these gaps are filled, the value of the work of the weather community will not be fully realized in the broader context of advancing weather prediction capabilities for societal benefit.

The importance of integrating socioeconomic considerations into weather research and R2O emerged as a strong theme at the 2009 Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Summer Study workshop. Socioeconomic themes have been discussed by other groups examining major issues in meteorology, including previous NRC committees (e.g.,



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2 Socioeconomic Research and Capacity Understandng and addressng socoeconomc aspects of weather pre- dcton s crtcal for the weather communty to reach ts goals and for socety to fully benefit from advances n weather predcton. to date, the weather predcton communty and socety are stll far from achevng the full po- tental that comes from ntegratng socal scences expertse wth weather research and research to operatons (R2o). As dscussed n the ntroducton, weather and weather nformaton affect a wde range of socoeconomc sectors and decsons. socoeconomc con- sderatons are fundamental n determnng how, when, and why the weather nformaton produced by research and R2o actvtes s, or s not, used. thus, socoeconomcs s an extremely mportant component of weather research and the transfer of research results to operatons (and also the transfer of operatons knowledge and experence back to research—o2R). Yet the weather predcton enterprse stll lacks nterdscplnary capacty to understand and address socoeconomc ssues. As a result, socoeconomc expertse s underutlzed n the weather communty, and the potental value of socoeconomc consderatons n plannng and executng weather actv- tes has not been fully acheved. In the same way that there are major gaps n weather research and R2o, there are also gaps n research and R2o n socoeconomcs of weather that, when filled, wll substantally benefit the weather communty and, more mportantly, socety at large. Unless and untl these gaps are filled, the value of the work of the weather communty wll not be fully realzed n the broader context of advancng weather predcton capabltes for socetal benefit. the mportance of ntegratng socoeconomc consderatons nto weather research and R2o emerged as a strong theme at the 2009 Board on Atmospherc scences and clmate (BAsc) summer study workshop. socoeconomc themes have been dscussed by other groups examnng major ssues n meteorology, ncludng prevous nRc commttees (e.g., 31

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32 32 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs nRc, 1998b, 2006a), the natonal oceanc and Atmospherc Admnstraton (noAA) scence Advsory Board (nsAB, 2003, 2009), the World Meteo- rologcal organzaton (Rogers et al., 2007), the nternatonal tHoRPeX1 program (Morss et al., 2008b; shapro and thorpe, 2004), and UsWRP PDt reports (emanuel et al., 1995; Pelke et al., 1997). Yet the 2009 BAsc summer study workshop represented the first tme that socoeconomc s- sues have been dscussed as a core prorty n weather predcton research and R2o at the level of an nRc commttee and workshop. Integraton of socoeconomc consderatons was vewed by workshop partcpants from a varety of dscplnes and backgrounds as mportant n general for meetng weather communty and socetal needs, and more specfically to address the establshed and emergng weather research and R2o needs that are dent- fied n chapters 3 and 4 of ths report. Achevng ths ntegraton requres ncorporatng knowledge and tools from the socal scences. the socal scences are an assembly of scentfic dscplnes that ad- dress socal and economc ssues wth rgorous theory and methods. these dscplnes each have specfic knowledge, approaches, and expertse that can contrbute substantvely to the goal of understandng socety’s weather- related needs and provdng usable weather nformaton to stakeholders, ncludng publc officals, ndustry, and members of the publc. socal scence dscplnes that can benefit weather research and R2o nclude economcs, human geography, poltcal scence, publc polcy, communca- ton, anthropology, socology, and psychology. Interdscplnary fields that ntegrate socal and physcal scences, such as envronmental scence, rsk communcaton, and natural hazards, can also make mportant contrbutons to producng usable weather nformaton. Although ths chapter focuses mostly on nformaton related to weather forecasts, current and hstorcal weather nformaton also have sgnficant socetal value. examples nclude the use of wnd data for stng wnd energy facltes and nformaton about past hazardous weather events for publc- and prvate-sector management of future hazardous weather rsks. the pr- ortes and mechansms dscussed below are also applcable to benefit the use and value of these types of weather nformaton. RECENT TRENDS socetal needs have a long hstory of beng consdered n weather predc- ton, and durng the past 15 years, socoeconomc ssues n weather predc- 1 tHoRPeX orgnally was denoted as “the observng system Research and Predctablty experment,” but that termnology s no longer used.

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socIoeconoMIc ReseARcH AnD cAPAcItY 33 ton have been dscussed n a number of dfferent venues. For example, the U.s. Weather Research Program (UsWRP) sponsored a Prospectus Develop- ment team (PDt–6) focused on socoeconomc aspects of weather predc- ton and related prortes. the PDt–6 report (Pelke et al., 1997) dscussed the benefits of ntegratng socetal-aspects research nto weather predcton efforts and found that despte the recognzed mportance of socetal aspects of weather, ths area has receved too lttle attenton for too long. Prortes dentfied n the PDt–6 report ncluded ntegratng users nto all aspects of weather predcton efforts, and not just at the “end of the lne.” the nRc 21st Century report (1998b) dentfied socetal consderatons as mportant, and t ncluded them n Imperatve 1 (optmze and Integrate observaton capabltes) and Leadershp and Management Recommendaton 3 (Assess Benefits and costs). However, the nRc 21st Century report dd not dentfy socoeconomc research or R2o as specfic prortes. some progress has been made toward the goals dentfied by PDt–6. socetal aspects of weather are recevng greater attenton wthn the weather predcton communty. they are often a topc of sgnficant dscusson at communty meetngs, such as the 2009 BAsc summer study workshop and recent Amercan Meteorologcal socety (AMs) summer communty meetngs.2 the AMs symposum on Polcy and soco-economc Research, whch has been held annually snce 2006, has been growng rapdly, and n recognton of the ncreasng nterest n ths area, n 2009 the AMs launched a new journal Weather, Climate, and Society. User needs are beng ncor- porated nto some weather predcton efforts earler n the research and development process; examples nclude the dscussons of emergng needs n chapter 4 of ths report and the natonal scence Foundaton (nsF) col- laboratve Adaptve sensng of the Atmosphere (cAsA) engneerng Research center (Box 2.1). the weather predcton communty now often ncludes the nput of at least one socal or nterdscplnary scentst n mportant dscus- sons. For example, n recent years, nRc commttees addressng socetally relevant ssues n meteorology have typcally ncluded socal scentsts and nterdscplnary experts. ths represents sgnficant progress over the past decade. However, socetal consderatons do not yet have a full voce, and socal scences are not yet recognzed as full and equal partners n most weather research and R2o efforts. the socal scences nclude multple areas of rel- evant expertse and methodologcal approaches; one or two ndvduals can provde only a subset of the socal scence perspectves that can be useful 2 see http://www.ametsoc.org/boardpges/cwce/docs/Bec/ndex.html.

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34 34 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs BOX 2.1 Examples of Successes in Integrated Work on Socioeconomics of Weather Over the years, a variety of research and R2O efforts have addressed socioeco- nomic aspects of weather. Six examples of current programs that do so by inte- grating social sciences and meteorology are provided here. Each has a different focus and strategy. These programs demonstrate how such integrated programs can enhance weather community efforts and help society benefit from meteoro- logical advances. The Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA)1 center is an interdisciplinary effort aimed at developing dense networks of small radars to “revolutioniz[e] our ability to observe, understand, predict and respond to hazard- ous weather events.” Funded as an NSF Engineering Research Center since 2003, CASA is a partnership among governmental, industrial, and academic entities. The center has included social science and end-user components since its inception. Recent integrated CASA successes include studies of emergency management decision making, public response to severe weather, and user-defined adaptive radar scanning strategies (e.g., Bass et al., 2009; McLaughlin et al., 2009; Philips et al., 2007; Rodriguez et al., 2010) and a demonstration of CASA’s end-to-end approach during the May 13, 2009 tornado event (Philips et al., 2009). The Communicating Hurricane Information (CHI)2 program is a joint NOAA– NSF solicitation “focusing on advancing fundamental understanding of the commu- nication of hurricane outlooks, forecasts, watches, and warnings both to decision makers (i.e., emergency managers, elected officials) and to the general public.” As of 2009, five programs were being funded with total funding of approximately $2 million. This program illustrates how agencies can partner to support integrated weather–society work that simultaneously advances fundamental understanding and addresses mission agency needs. It also illustrates how well-designed re- search initiatives can entrain social scientists with a variety of expertise into ad- dressing weather forecasting issues. The University of Washington Probability Forecast (PROBCAST)3 project is a “prototype and test bed for exploring the best approaches for communicating high- resolution uncertainty information to a large and varied user community” (Mass et al., 2009). This research and applications effort, which integrates work in meteorol- ogy, statistics, and psychology, developed over approximately 10 years with funding from NSF and the Department of Defense (DOD). Recent PROBCAST successes include research studies examining how people interpret and use probabilistic

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socIoeconoMIc ReseARcH AnD cAPAcItY 35 information (Joslyn et al., 2009) and the PROBCAST Web-based portal that dis- seminates weather forecast uncertainty information. The Collaborative Program on the Societal Impacts and Economic Benefits of Weather Information (SIP)4 was founded in 2004 to “improve societal gains from weather forecasting by infusing social science research, methods, and capabilities into the Weather Enterprise.” SIP is hosted at NCAR in Boulder, Colorado, with support from NOAA (through the U.S. Weather Research Program) and NSF, as well as from research grants. Recent SIP successes include results from a nation- wide survey examining the public’s sources, perceptions, and uses of and values for, weather forecast information, including forecast uncertainty (Lazo et al., 2009, Morss et al., 2008a, 2010), a working group and workshop (Gladwin et al., 2007) that helped initiate the NOAA–NSF CHI program solicitation (see above); and the WAS*IS program (see below). The Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM)5 program “promotes col- laborative research and partnerships between the social sciences and the physical sciences to enhance societal relevance and to reduce the human risk from atmo- spheric and related hazards.” SSWIM was founded in 2008 at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, and is supported by NOAA and the University of Oklahoma. Recent SSWIM successes include cohosting 2008 and 2009 work- shops6 with NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed and Global Systems Division to improve the development of new hazardous weather warning products. Weather and Society*Integrated Studies (WAS*IS)7 is a “grassroots movement that is changing the weather enterprise by integrating social science into meteoro- logical research and practice in comprehensive and sustained ways.” The WAS*IS program focuses primarily on empowering early career participants to address integrated weather–society issues by introducing social science methods and concepts and building community through workshops (Demuth et al., 2007). The movement aims to help change from what WAS to what IS the future of integrated weather studies not by generating explicit research products, but by building ex- posure, commitment, and capacity. 1 See http://www.casa.umass.edu/. 2 See http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2008/nsf08551/nsf08551.htm. 3 See http://probcast.washington.edu/. 4 See http://www.sip.ucar.edu. 5 See http://www.sswim.org. 6 See http://ewp.nssl.noaa.gov/wasis2008/ and http://www.weather.gov/warningworkshop/. 7 See http://www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis.

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36 36 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs to weather predcton. Moreover, socal scentsts are stll often treated as consultants on projects, brought n once the actvty s well under way. so- cal scentsts can contrbute not only to demonstratng or helpng realze socoeconomc value once a meteorologcal effort s nearly complete; they can make perhaps even more mportant contrbutons to problem dentfica- ton and research desgn. Further, progress toward addressng the socetal and nterdscplnary prorty areas dentfied more than a decade ago n the nRc (1998b) report has been mnmal (Morss et al., 2008b). these areas are of major mportance for the weather communty n provdng cost-effectve servces for socety, but there has been lmted motvaton or support to pursue them. Although noAA has made some progress n ncorporatng socal scences n some areas, socal scences capabltes wthn noAA are nadequate and are far from beng sufficently utlzed to meet noAA’s and the naton’s needs (nsAB, 2009; Fgure 2.1). Programs to tran meteorolo- gsts and socal scentsts to understand and apply each other’s perspectves are also lackng. thus, despte prevous dscussons and efforts, lmted progress has been made n brdgng the gap between weather predcton and the socal scences. Yet nterest n dong so contnues to grow. to buld on the current momentum and dscuss socoeconomcs as a hgh-level prorty for the weather predcton communty, the 2009 BAsc summer study workshop ncluded socoeconomc mpacts as one of five focal topcs. the goal of the socoeconomc dscussons was to entran multple perspectves at an nRc-sponsored communty-level workshop to dentfy key steps for advanc- ng weather–socety research and R2o. Prevous related efforts were brefly dscussed, but opnons on successes, falures, and the reasons underlyng them dffered. the bulk of the dscussons focused on how to most produc- tvely move forward. Dscussons of socoeconomc ssues at the 2009 BAsc summer study workshop receved the crtcal nput of physcal, socal, and nterdscplnary scentsts and managers engaged n a varety of weather–socety research and R2o actvtes. the workshop ncluded three presentatons on progress and prortes n socoeconomcs of weather, followed by a dscusson among all workshop partcpants. An nterdscplnary socoeconomc workng group then met to dscuss weather–socety research and R2o prortes n greater detal, and dscussons among the group contnued after the workshop. so- coeconomc consderatons were also dscussed n conjuncton wth other workshop focal topcs, especally the emergng applcatons (chapter 4). the concepts and prortes presented here represent a synthess of dscussons at the workshop and those of the study commttee.

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socIoeconoMIc ReseARcH AnD cAPAcItY 37 FIGURE 2.1 NOAA invests a relatively small amount in social science related to weather. FY 2008 social science budget as a proportion of total NOAA budget and as distributed across line offices (NWS = National Weather Service; OAR = Oceanic and Atmospheric Research; NESDIS = National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service; PPI = Office of Program Planning and Integration; NMFS = National Marine Fisheries Ser- vice; NOS = National Ocean Service). Most of NOAA’s OAR investment in social science in FY 2008 was in climate and other nonweather areas; the total FY 2008 social science budget for the Weather and Water mission goal within NOAA was $0.75M. SOURCE: NSAB (2009). PRIORITy WEATHER–SOCIETy TOPICS Durng the workshop and subsequent meetngs of the study commttee, meteorologsts and socal scentsts jontly dentfied three ntal prorty topcs for weather research and R2o actvtes n the socoeconomcs of weather nformaton: estmatng value; understandng the nterpretaton and use of nformaton; and mprovng communcaton of nformaton. the first focuses prmarly on economc value, although other socetal values (such as envronmental health or human well-beng) may be consdered. the second and thrd focus prmarly on other, noneconomc socal scence perspectves, although economc perspectves and tools can be appled as well to address user needs and communcatons. For each topc, sample research and R2o questons are brefly mentoned. note that although the questons are not dscussed n detal, substantal com- plexty underles them. Addressng each area wll requre brngng theoretcal and methodologcal tools from the socal scences together wth nput from meteorology researchers, meteorology practtoners, and forecast users.

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38 38 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs Estimating Value Relable estmates of the economc value of weather mpacts and fore- casts are key to demonstratng the mportance of weather predcton programs and to makng cost-benefit decsons among dfferent optons for allocatng weather predcton resources. estmatng the value of forecasts often requres understandng ther use (the second prorty area). Valuaton can also provde nsght nto the use of forecasts, and thus help mprove forecast communca- ton and use. economsts employ multple approaches and tools for valung weather mpacts and forecasts, such as econometrc modelng, decson analy- ss, and nonmarket valuaton. each has partcular strengths and weaknesses and s best suted for dfferent applcatons. thus, to buld a holstc pcture of the value of weather mpacts and forecasts to dfferent socetal sectors and socety as a whole, a core weather-economcs expertse needs to be entraned and appled to estmate value from complementary perspectves. Weather and weather forecasts also have sgnficant socetal and cultural value that can be examned usng perspectves from other, noneconomc, socal scence dscplnes, ncludng publc polcy, socology, and anthropology. examples of nterdscplnary research and R2o questons n ths area nclude the followng: • What are the mpacts of current weather forecasts on dfferent sectors of the U.s. economy (such as transportaton and energy), and what would be the value of forecast mprovements? • How do weather and weather forecasts nteract wth socoeconomc nfrastructure and systems (such as the transportaton system or electrc power grd) to nfluence weather mpacts and forecast value? • How do the benefits of mprovng forecasts of the tmng and loca- ton of hurrcane landfall compare wth the benefits of mprovng forecasts of hurrcane ntensty at landfall? • What are the costs and benefits to dfferent sectors and groups of longer lead tmes for tornado warnngs? • What are the cost-benefit trade-offs among dfferent mprovements to observatonal networks and among nvestments n dfferent components of weather predcton systems (e.g., ncreased resoluton, mproved data assmlaton, mproved physcs, ensemble sze)? Understanding User Needs, Interpretation, and Use of Information A key component of the provson of more benefical weather forecasts s understandng how people nterpret forecast nformaton and use t for

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socIoeconoMIc ReseARcH AnD cAPAcItY 39 ther needs. ths ncludes ndvduals and organzatons n the prvate and publc sectors. Forecast and warnng nformaton s nterpreted through the lens of ndvduals’ and organzatons’ rsk perceptons, experence, needs, belefs, capabltes, and so on. Further, forecasts are only one of many factors that affect weather-related decsons; cultural, poltcal, economc, and other consderatons are also mportant, as well as nteractons wth systems such ar transportaton systems, power grds, and communcaton networks. thus, understandng user needs and value requres understand- ng how people nterpret forecasts and how forecasts nfluence people’s behavor n dfferent contexts. A varety of socal scence and related theores, from dscplnes such as communcaton, socology, psychology, and human geography, can be used to understand forecast nterpretaton and use, employng approaches such as n-depth ntervews, focus groups, surveys, and decson experments. the resultng knowledge can be appled to mprove forecast communcaton, use, and value, and s key to provdng socetally benefical mpact forecasts as dscussed n chapter 4. to develop holstc understandng that s both deep and broad, work n ths area wll need to nclude n-depth studes of cases and specfic contexts as well as studes that span populatons, economc sectors, regons, and meteorolog- cal phenomena. examples of questons n ths area nclude the followng: • What makes varous populatons more or less vulnerable to severe weather events, and how can mproved weather nformaton help mtgate those vulnerabltes? • How do people (ndvdually and wthn organzatons) nterpret severe weather warnngs, and what motvates people to respond? • When and how do the bases and framng effects that have been dentfied n other rsk communcaton contexts affect nterpretatons and use of weather forecasts? • What are people’s mental models of rsks from hazardous weather events such as hurrcanes and floods? How do those mental models promote or lmt nterpretaton and use of nformaton about weather rsks and dec- sons about protectve actons? • How do people nterpret and use forecast nformaton that com- muncates uncertanty n dfferent ways, and n what crcumstances can uncertanty nformaton help ndvduals and organzatons make better decsons? • What are the weather forecast nformaton needs of ar transportaton provders and users related to the next Generaton Ar transportaton system

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40 40 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs or nextGen,3 and what do those needs mean for development of forecasts for nextGen and desgn of the nextGen system? • What mpact varables are most mportant to dfferent ndvduals and organzatons n advance of varous types of very hgh mpact weather events, for use n ther decsons (see chapter 4)? Improving Communication of Information For forecast and warnng nformaton to be used effectvely, t needs to be receved and understood. People receve forecast nformaton from df- ferent sources, rangng from meda broadcasters, to the Internet and socal networkng stes, to frends and famly. thus, effectve development and dssemnaton of weather forecasts requres an understandng of how df- ferent communcaton modes nfluence nterpretaton and use of weather forecast nformaton, and how dfferent communcaton channels and modes nteract. Understandng barrers to effectve communcaton and to mot- vatng effectve rsk-reducng behavor s also mportant. Gven the uncer- tanty nherent n weather forecastng, t s partcularly mportant to address communcaton of forecast uncertanty to users rangng from busnesses to emergency managers to the general publc. Work n ths area ncludes more tradtonal research approaches such as ntervews and surveys as well as stakeholder-orented and partcpatory approaches that can ad transton of concepts from research to operatons. examples of questons nclude the followng: • How do people ntegrate weather forecast nformaton gathered from dfferent sources to form rsk perceptons and resolve perceved nformaton conflcts? • How do people make decsons to seek new nformaton as a weather stuaton and ts forecasts evolve? • How s new forecast nformaton ntegrated wth experence, earler nformaton, and other consderatons to update or confirm rsk perceptons and decsons? • What roles do socal networks play n dssemnatng forecast nforma- ton, and how are new meda technologes changng how weather nforma- ton s communcated to dfferent populatons? • How wll a transton from a “warn-on-detecton” to “warn-on- forecast” paradgm wthn the nWs affect severe weather warnng com- muncaton and use for varous audences? 3 see http://www.faa.gov/about/ntatves/nextgen/.

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socIoeconoMIc ReseARcH AnD cAPAcItY 41 • How can the answers to the above questons be appled to develop mechansms to more effectvely communcate weather nformaton and forecasts—partcularly those contanng uncertanty nformaton—n ways that account for dfferent nterpretaton by dfferent user groups and promote benefical behavor? In all of these prorty areas, a sustaned, nterdscplnary effort s needed to develop core knowledge that can be appled to address current communty needs for weather nformaton, as well as to address new research questons and weather R2o needs as they arse. As n meteorology, quanttatve and qualtatve approaches can be combned to develop more complete un- derstandng. Relevant socal scence and nterdscplnary expertse s best entraned from the begnnng of studes, to ensure that the work ncorporates relevant socal scence theory and knowledge developed n other contexts and avods renventng exstng findngs. to be most effectve, ths work would need to lnk wth progress n alled domans that examne rsk communcaton and decsons under rsk and uncertanty, such as healthcare and nonweather hazards. such cross-fertlzaton would also help attract more leadng socal scentsts to devotng effort to weather predcton ssues. In some stuatons, addressng these prorty areas wll nvolve applyng exstng socal scence theores and methods to weather nformaton con- texts. Dong so wll not only mprove knowledge about socoeconomcs of weather; t wll often also generate nterdscplnary theoretcal and method- ologcal advances. In other stuatons, applcaton to weather contexts wll requre development of new or substantally mproved theores and methods. thus, work n these prorty areas wll nvolve a mx of applcaton and en- hancement of exstng tools wth fundamental new developments. Because meteorologsts and researchers from dfferent socal scence fields can have dfferent ways of learnng and knowng, creatng successful collaboratons and outcomes wll requre acknowledgng and respectng these dfferent backgrounds and approaches. the findngs from ths work would not only help the weather communty mprove the use and value of exstng weather nformaton, they would also help the communty dentfy nformaton gaps. In ths way, socoeconomc research has the added advantage of dentfyng groundbreakng new areas for meteorologcal research and R2o actvtes. examples are provded n the dscussons n chapter 4 on very hgh mpact weather, urban meteorology, and renewable energy producton. commtment to addressng the socoeconomcs of weather has another advantage: helpng agences and the weather communty at large make

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42 42 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs polcy and nvestment decsons. Weather research and R2o actvtes nev- tably nvolve choces among prortes for nvestng resources, and dfferent groups’ socetal and economc prortes wll nvarably dffer. For example, a 5-day forecast ndcatng that a coastal toursm area may need to be evacuated to save lves because of an approachng hurrcane may conflct wth local busnesses’ desre to retan customers and employees and wth the area’s long-term economc prosperty f an evacuaton turns out to be unnecessary. Investments n research and R2o actvtes to mprove 10-day weather forecasts may mean fewer resources for mprovng 0- to 24-hour forecasts. smlarly, nvestments n probablstc forecasts wth larger num- bers of ensemble members could result (at least n the near term) n lower resoluton forecasts. Decsons about such trade-offs can be nformed by an understandng of socetal needs for forecasts. socoeconomc consderatons are also mportant for decsons about desgnng forecast dssemnaton and decson support systems of the future, such as new nWs products and nextGen. thus, weather–socety capacty and knowledge can help agences and poltcal and busness leaders make such decsons wthn a broader polcy framework (e.g., Morss, 2005; Morss et al., 2005). INTEGRATING THE SOCIAL SCIENCES AND WEATHER: A PATH FORWARD one approach to categorzng nterdscplnary “socometeorology” re- search and R2o actvtes s to consder a combnaton of “cuttng-edge” and “off-the-shelf” (readly avalable) knowledge n the dfferent dscplnes. the most nnovatve and rskest research wll combne cuttng-edge socal scence wth cuttng-edge meteorology, advancng scence and knowledge n both fields. For some research and R2o questons, cuttng-edge socal scence wll most approprately be appled wth off-the-shelf meteorology, or vce versa. each of these types of work s needed and has value for ad- vancng nterdscplnary knowledge and weather communty goals. From an ntegrated perspectve, work that apples off-the-shelf meteorology n a new way to address cuttng-edge socetal needs has potental to be just as groundbreakng as other types of work. As a result, t s mportant for fundamental, appled, and use-nspred actvtes to be supported n career development and by fundng agences. Buldng programs that develop and conduct research and R2o actvtes n these dfferent ways requres two-way partnershps among meteorologsts and socal scentsts, where dfferent perspectves and nterests are dscussed and ncorporated. Dependng on the program, dfferent areas of expertse

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socIoeconoMIc ReseARcH AnD cAPAcItY 43 and methodologcal approaches from the socal scences wll be needed. there are dfferent approaches that can be taken to buld nterdscplnary capacty and expertse. no sngle approach alone wll suffice, but a com- bnaton of complementary approaches s requred. summarzed below are some opportuntes for buldng nterdscplnary capacty that could be con- sdered (along wth a few current examples). Pursued together, programs of ths type can develop the requred nterdscplnary capacty and knowledge and also apply t to meet weather communty, agency, and socetal needs. • Long-term programs to establish and maintain expertise and re- sources for integrating social sciences and weather prediction: current examples nclude the natonal center for Atmospherc Research’s (ncAR’s) socetal Impacts Program (sIP) and the oklahoma natonal Weather center’s socal scence Woven Into Meteorology (ssWIM) program (Box 2.1). A sg- nficant feature of both programs s ther colocaton wth (and ntegraton of socal scentsts nto) a major meteorologcal entty. ths colocaton and ntegraton s mportant because t facltates engagng socal scence to advance weather–socety knowledge and applcatons. • Grant-funded research to address priority fundamental and R2O issues at the weather–society interface: currently, few research and R2o actvtes focused on weather–socety ssues are funded by the federal agen- ces. ths s n contrast to the clmate arena, where a varety of programs fund socoeconomc and polcy research. one current example of ths type of effort n the weather arena s the noAA/nsF-funded communcatng Hurrcane Informaton (cHI) program (Box 2.1), n whch noAA and nsF, n conjuncton wth an nterdscplnary group of experts, dentfied key so- cal scence ssues related to the hurrcane forecast and warnng system and then ssued a call for proposals. such grant programs are one of the most effectve mechansms for addressng prorty nterdscplnary ssues that nvolve more basc research or for whch the most frutful approaches and expertse are not apparent; n other words, where PI-drven creatvty and nnovaton can make key contrbutons. they are also a strong mechansm for buldng nterdscplnary teams and entranng new socal scence and nterdscplnary expertse to address weather predcton ssues. • Directed research to quickly address priority applied issues at the weather–society interface: When the specfic questons are well-defined, concrete results are needed n a few months or years, and the methodolo- ges to produce those results are known and well developed, the most ap- proprate mechansm can often be drected research efforts such as targeted short-term grants, contracts, or consultant studes (e.g., centrec, 2003; Lazo

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44 44 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs and chestnut, 2002). such studes generally nvolve off-the-shelf socal sc- ence combned wth off-the-shelf meteorology. As socoeconomc capacty s developed wthn the weather predcton communty, more studes may fall nto ths category. • Collaborative social science–physical science or –engineering (“end- to-end-to-end”) testbeds that integrate social science into the development of new meteorological technologies and products: A current example s the nsF cAsA engneerng Research center (Box 2.1), whch has ncorpo- rated socal scence as an equal partner n multple aspects of ts work. the long-term programs descrbed above may also nclude efforts of ths type. such efforts combne new weather technologes and products, users and ther socoeconomc consderatons, and socal scence expertse. In dong so, they provde a focusng mechansm for ntegratng socal scences nto meteorology n ways that meet users’ and meteorologsts’ needs. • Agency programs to develop internal and external capacity to ad- dress specific weather–society needs related to the missions of NOAA/NWS and other agencies: Developng nternal agency capacty wll requre hr- ng socal and nterdscplnary scentsts as well as socal scence tranng of exstng agency personnel. external capacty famlar wth agency needs can be developed through mechansms such as programs for nterdscpln- ary unversty faculty, postdoctoral researchers, and graduate students to work n resdence at specfic agences (smlar to the Amercan Assocaton for the Advancement of scence’s scence & technology Polcy Fellowshp program,4 but focused on weather-socety work). such programs are needed to develop R2o applcatons of socal scences and to allow agences to ef- fectvely use nput from socal scence efforts. An mportant aspect of such programs s engagng a dversty of socal scence dscplnes, snce dfferent dscplnes (and subdscplnes) brng dfferent perspectves relevant to ad- dressng agency mssons. • Educational initiatives to train the next generation of meteorology researchers, forecasters, and practitioners in integrated weather–society thinking: A small group of meteorologsts who understand socoeconomc ssues s developng, and the communty of nterdscplnary weather– socety researchers s growng. However, these ndvduals have been traned largely through ther own ntatve to pursue nterdscplnary educaton and through small efforts such as the WAs*Is (Weather and socety*Integrated studes) program (Box 2.1). ths group s also well below the crtcal mass requred to meet weather communty needs. thus, educatonal ntatves 4 see: http://fellowshps.aaas.org/

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socIoeconoMIc ReseARcH AnD cAPAcItY 45 are needed to tran meteorology students, forecasters, and practcng meteo- rologsts n socetal aspects of weather. Interdscplnary undergraduate and graduate programs are also needed for meteorologsts and socal scentsts nterested n weather–socety careers. such ntatves can be developed by unverstes, noAA/nWs, and other organzatons, and fostered by c ommunty-wde nsttutons such as AMs. several current examples of such programs are provded n Box 2.1. these programs are complementary, and each fills a unque nche. ther successes nclude nterdscplnary research projects and results, forecast programs and products that ntegrate end-user needs, and researchers and forecasters knowledgeable n the ntegraton of meteorology and socal scences. Although such programs demonstrate substantal progress n nte- grated weather–socety work, t wll take tme for these efforts to demonstrate large-scale benefits to the weather communty and socety. Further, they are far from sufficent n fillng the weather communty’s needs n ths area, and fundng for many of the programs s currently lmted or uncertan n the future. ths hghlghts the need for long-term, sustanable fundng for such programs. to further ths collaboratve work, the weather communty can buld on examples n areas such as the multple U.s. centers focusng on natural hazards research and reducton, the natonal Marne Fsheres servce and other natural resources management programs, and noAA’s Regonal Integrated scences and Assessments program to address clmate ssues mportant to regonal decson makers. Agency coordnaton s mportant for facltatng efforts to address so- coeconomc aspects of weather, but many of the deas and much of the mplementaton effort wll need to come from wthn the weather research and R2o communty and from alled socal scentsts. Gven the nterdsc- plnary nature of ths area, specfic deas and partnershps wll need to be developed through n-depth dscusson among meteorologsts and socal scentsts from varous dscplnes. Perodc workshops that brng socal scentsts and meteorologsts together to dscuss prorty research and R2o topcs n socoeconomc aspects of weather predcton wll ad n ntegratng these fields. AMs and long-term programs such as ncAR’s sIP and the okla- homa natonal Weather center’s ssWIM program are already coordnatng such dscussons, and they can contnue to facltate workshops on a varety of topcs. Because lmted tme was avalable at the 2009 BAsc summer study workshop to dscuss socoeconomc programs and ssues, workshop partcpants noted the potental value of a future communty workshop for socal and nterdscplnary scentsts to dscuss prortes and strateges for

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46 46 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs weather–socety research and R2o n depth. Msson agences, such as noAA, can organze workshops focused on addressng specfic socal sc- ence needs for transtonng R2o. Vision the commttee’s vson s that by ~2025 a core group of socal sc- entsts and meteorologsts wll have formed a strong, mutually benefical partnershp n whch multple areas of scence work together to ensure that weather research and forecastng meet socetal needs. the knowledge and expertse needed to address crtcal problems at the weather–socety nter- face efficently and relably wll be readly avalable, and t wll be appled regularly to address research questons of nterest to both socal scentsts and meteorologsts and to enhance weather R2o and operatons. Where socetal consderatons are ntegral to meteorologcal projects and programs, socal scentsts wth approprate expertse wll be engaged from the onset of plannng, so that the socal scences can most effectvely contrbute to program goals and outcomes. sufficent support wll be avalable to ncor- porate relevant socal scence perspectves from varous dscplnes nto tra- dtonally physcal scence–orented programs, and to provde opportuntes for sustaned, mutually benefical socal scence–meteorology partnershps. ths ncludes nsttutonal and fundng support from government agences (ncludng noAA, nsF, nAsA, and others) as well as communty support from other agences, unverstes, research nsttutons, AMs, and other members of the weather enterprse. Progress s beng made, as llustrated by the actvtes n Box 2.1 and the growng number of people nterested n ntegrated weather–socety ssues, but current actvtes and capacty are stll below crtcal mass, and years wll be needed for the benefits of these efforts to be broadly realzed. After decades of dscussng the mportance of socoeconomc consderatons, the vson s that the weather predcton communty wll finally have the capac- ty to understand and act on them. the benefits wll be realzed through ntegrated, nterdscplnary research, R2o, and operatonal work n very hgh mpact weather, urban meteorology, renewable energy producton, and other, long-standng ssues (e.g., transportaton) at the weather–socety nter- face. socoeconomcs wll be nfused nto weather research and forecastng n these areas; and n dscussons of weather communty prortes, socoeco- nomc perspectves wll be ntegrated nto findngs and recommendatons. ths wll result n meteorologcal researchers and forecast provders, socal

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socIoeconoMIc ReseARcH AnD cAPAcItY 47 scentsts, and forecast users workng together to generate weather scence and servces that effectvely meet crtcal socetal needs. Recommendation: The weather community and social scientists should create partnerships to develop a core interdisciplinary capacity for weather–society research and transitioning research to operations, starting with three priority areas: • estimating the societal and economic value of weather information; • understanding the interpretation and use of weather information by various audiences; • and applying this knowledge to improve communication, use, and value. to be effectve, the partnershp between the weather communty and socal scentsts should be two-way and balanced, and should n- clude a varety of socal scence perspectves. Members of the weather communty, ncludng research nsttutons, unverstes, ndvdual me- teorologsts, noAA, nsF, and other agences, should pursue multple mechansms for buldng research and R2o capacty n the soco- economcs of weather, ncludng long-term nterdscplnary programs; grant-funded and drected research, R2o, and applcatons actvtes; ntegrated socal scence–physcal scence testbeds; msson agency programs to develop capacty; and educatonal ntatves. the requred capacty should be developed and utlzed through partnershps across agences, programs, and dscplnes, and n concert wth academa and the prvate sector.

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