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OCEAN ACIDIFICATION A NATIONAL STRATEGY TO MEET THE CHALLENGES OF A CHANGING OCEAN Committee on the Development of an Integrated Science Strategy for Ocean Acidification Monitoring, Research, and Impacts Assessment Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Govern ing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. DG133R08CQ0062, OCE 0946330, NNX09AU42G, and G09AP00160 between the National Academy of Sci ences and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and U.S. Geological Survey. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number13: 9780309153591 (Book) International Standard Book Number10: 0309153659X (Book) International Standard Book Number13: 9780309153607 (PDF) International Standard Book Number10: 030915360X (PDF) Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 2010934135 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 6246242 or (202) 3343313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, selfperpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON THE DEvELOPMENT OF AN INTEgRATED SCIENCE STRATEgy FOR OCEAN ACIDIFICATION MONITORINg, RESEARCH, AND IMPACTS ASSESSMENT FRANçOIS M.M. MOREL, Chair, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey DAvID ARCHER, University of Chicago, Illinois JAMES P. BARRy, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California gARRy D. BREWER, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut JORgE E. CORREDOR, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez SCOTT C. DONEy, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts vICTORIA J. FABRy, California State University, San Marcos gRETCHEN E. HOFMANN, University of California, Santa Barbara DANIEL S. HOLLAND, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland JOAN A. KLEyPAS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado FRANK J. MILLERO, University of Miami, Florida ULF RIEBESELL, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel, Germany Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Study Director (beginning January 2010) SUSAN PARK, Study Director (until January 2010) KATHRyN HUgHES, Program Officer HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant CHERyL LOgAN, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow (Winter 2009)

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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD DONALD F. BOESCH (Chair), University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge EDWARD A. BOyLE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JORgE E. CORREDOR, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez KEITH R. CRIDDLE, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau JODy W. DEMINg, University of Washington, Seattle MARy (MISSy) H. FEELEy, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, Texas ROBERT HALLBERg, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Princeton University, New Jersey DEBRA HERNANDEZ, Hernandez and Company, Isle of Palms, South Carolina ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University, Corvallis KIHO KIM, American University, Washington, DC BARBARA A. KNUTH, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York ROBERT A. LAWSON, Science Applications International Corporation, San Diego, California gEORgE I. MATSUMOTO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California JAy S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company (retired), Port Angeles, Washington ANDREW A. ROSENBERg, Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ANNE M. TREHU, Oregon State University, Corvallis PETER L. TyACK, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts DAWN J. WRIgHT, Oregon State University, Corvallis JAMES A. yODER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts OSB Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Director CLAUDIA MENgELT, Senior Program Officer DEBORAH gLICKSON, Program Officer MARTHA MCCONNELL, Program Officer JODI BOSTROM, Associate Program Officer i

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SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator SHERRIE FORREST, Research Associate HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant JEREMy JUSTICE, Senior Program Assistant ii

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Acknowledgments This report was greatly enhanced by the participants of the meeting held as part of this study. The committee would first like to acknowledge the efforts of those who gave presentations at meetings: Richard Feely (NOAA), Steve Murawski (NOAA), Julie Morris (NSF), Paula Bontempi (NASA), Kevin Summers (EPA), John Haines (USGS), Emily Pidgeon (Conservation International), Mike Sigler (NOAA), Chris Langdon (Oregon State University), Steve Gittings (NOAA), George Waldbusser (Chesapeake Biological Laboratory), Joseph Kunkel (University of MassachusettsAmherst), Stephen Carpenter (University of Wisconsin), Tim Killeen (NSF), Jerry Miller (OSTP), Rick Spinrad (NOAA), Hugh Ducklow (Marine Biological Laboratory), Daniel Schrag (Harvard Uni versity), Kai Lee (Packard Foundation), and Rob Lempert (RAND). These talks helped set the stage for fruitful discussions in the closed sessions that followed. The committee is also grateful to a number of people who provided important discussion and/or material for this report: Mitch Covington, BugWare Inc.; Jason HallSpencer, University of Plymouth, UK; Russ Hopcroft, University of Alaska, Fairbanks; Howard Spero, University of California, Davis; and Richard Zimmerman, Old Dominion University. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro cedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound ix

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x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report: Edward A. Boyle, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, California Stephen Carpenter, University of Wisconsin, Madison Paul Falkowski, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey Jean-Pierre gattuso, CNRS and Universit Pierre et Marie Curie, France Burke Hales, Oregon State University, Corvallis David Karl, University of Hawaii, Honolulu Chris Langdon, University of Miami, Florida Paul Marshall, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Queensland, Australia Edward Miles, University of Washington, Seattle Hans-Otto Pörtner, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany Andy Ridgewell, University of Bristol, United Kingdom James Sanchirico, University of California, Davis Brad Seibel, University of Rhode Island, Kingston Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the con clusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Kenneth H. Brink, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, appointed by the Divi son on Earth and Life Studies, and W.L. Chameides, Duke University, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was car ried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final con tent of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents Summary 1 1 Introduction 15 2 Effects of Ocean Acidification on the Chemistry of Seawater 23 3 Effects of Ocean Acidification on the Physiology of Marine Organisms 45 4 Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Ecosystems 59 5 Socioeconomic Concerns 83 6 A National Ocean Acidification Program 95 References 137 Appendixes A Committee and Staff Biographies 161 B Acronyms 167 C The Effect of Ocean Acidification on Calcification in Calcifying Algae, Corals, and Carbonatedominated Systems 171 D Summary of Research Recommendations from Communitybased References 183 xi

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