avoiding technology surprise for tomorrow’s warfighter—symposium 2010

Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter—2010

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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avoiding technology surprise for tomorrow’s warfighter— symposium 2010 Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter—2010 Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This is a report of work supported by contract HHM402-05-D-0011 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, con - clusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15568-7 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15568-1 Limited copies are available from: Additional copies are available from: Division on Engineering and Physical The National Academies Press Sciences 500 Fifth Street, N.W. National Research Council Lockbox 285 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20055 Washington, DC 20001 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (202) 334-3118 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examina - tion of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scien - tific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE FOR THE SyMPOSIuM ON AvOIDINg TECHNOLOgy SuRPRISE FOR TOMORROW’S WARFIgHTER—2010 J. JEROME HOLTON, Chair, Tauri Group, Alexandria, Virginia RUTH A. DAVID, Vice Chair, Analytic Services, Inc. (ANSER), Arlington, Virginia BRIAN BALLARD, Berico Tailored Systems, Columbia, Maryland ALAN H. EPSTEIN, Pratt & Whitney, East Hartford, Connecticut JOHN GANNON, BAE Systems, Reston, Virginia CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN, Wayne State University DIANE E. GRIFFIN, Johns Hopkins University KENNETH A. KRESS, KBK Consulting, Inc., Arlington, Virginia GILMAN G. LOUIE, Alsop Louie Partners, San Francisco JULIE J.C.H. RyAN, George Washington University Staff MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead DEPS Board Director DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director CARTER FORD, Program Officer SARAH CAPOTE, Research Associate MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator SHANNON C. THOMAS, Program Associate CHRIS JONES, Financial Manager 

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Preface The symposium described in this report was the second annual gathering of this type, representing a new venue for the ongoing engagement between the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review (TIGER) Standing Committee, the scientific and technical intelligence (S&TI) community, and the consumers of S&TI products.1 TIGER’s sponsor, the Defense Warning Office (DWO) of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), intends that the personal interactions that occurred throughout the symposium, this report, and similar products of future sessions will help to systemically strengthen U.S. S&TI capabilities. The chair and vice chair express their appreciation to the members of the Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter—2010 for their earnest contributions to the generation of this report. We are also grateful for the active participation of many members of the technol- ogy community as well as to the sponsor for its support. Likewise, we recognize the substantial contribution made by the staff of the Lockheed Martin Center for Innovation in supporting the conduct of this symposium at the facility in Suffolk, Virginia. The committee would also like to express sincere appreciation for the support and assistance of the NRC staff, including Daniel Talmage, Carter Ford, 1The preceding symposium is described in National Research Council, 2009, Aoiding Tech- nology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report, Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. Available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12735. ii

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iii PREFACE Greg Eyring, Sarah Capote, Marguerite Schneider, Chris Jones, and Shannon Thomas. J. Jerome Holton, Chair Ruth A. David, Vice Chair Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter—2010

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evi - dence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: James J. Carafano, The Heritage Foundation, Lawrence J. Delaney, Titan Corporation (retired), Stephen W. Drew (NAE), Drew Solutions LLC, Allison A. Hickey (USAF, retired), Accenture National Security Services, Larry G. Lehowicz (USA, retired), Quantum Research International, and Gregory S. Martin (USAF, retired), GS Martin Consulting. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recom- mendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert J. Hermann (NAE). Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. ix

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Contents 1 MOTIVATION FOR THE SyMPOSIUM 1 Introduction and Study Origin, 1 Objective, 2 Symposium Participants, 3 Methods for Data Gathering and Interpretation, 4 Precision of Surveys, 5 Workshop Topics, 6 Report Structure, 6 2 CONSIDERING SURPRISE 9 Product and Process Technology Breakthroughs, 12 New Uses of Existing Technology, 12 Speed to Operational Use of Technology, 13 The Effects of Cultural Values on Surprise, 15 Final Remarks, 16 3 DISCUSSION, ANALySIS, AND KEy THEMES 17 Lack of Shared Understanding of New Technologies, 18 Understanding the Effects of an Adversary’s Compulsions and Constraints on Innovation Development, 21 Impact of the Cultural Context on Technology Development and Use, 22 Geopolitical Context, 22 Demography, 23 Values, 24 xi

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xii CONTENTS Growing Ease of Access to Potentially Disruptive Technologies and Increasing Difficulty of Monitoring, 25 Commercially Driven Emergence of Disruptive Technologies, 25 Open-Source Development, 28 The Challenge of Keeping Up, 28 4 CHALLENGES OF TECHNOLOGy SURPRISE FOR THE 30 WARFIGHTER APPENDIXES A Committee Biographies 35 B Participating Organizations and Agenda 40 C Summary of Sessions 43

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Acronyms and Abbreviations COCOM combatant command COD currency of development DIA Defense Intelligence Agency DoD Department of Defense DWO Defense Warning Office EMP electromagnetic pulse FOIA Freedom of Information Act IC intelligence community JFCOM United States Joint Forces Command NRC National Research Council ORD Office of Research and Development RCAs riot control agents R&D research and development S&T science and technology S&TI scientific and technical intelligence xiii

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xi ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS TFP total factor productivity TIGER Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review TQM total quality management USJFCOM United States Joint Forces Command WoW World of Warcraft