S&T STRATEGIES OF SIX COUNTRIES

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES

Committee on Global Science and Technology Strategies and Their Effect on U.S. National Security

Standing Committee on Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

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Committee on Global Science and Technology Strategies and Their Effect on U.S. National Security Standing Committee on Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This is a report of work supported by Contract No. HHM40205D0011 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-15571-7 International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-15571-1 Limited copies are available from: Additional copies are available from: Division on Engineering and Physical The National Academies Press Sciences 500 Fifth Street, N.W. National Research Council Lockbox 285 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Washington, DC 20001 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (202) 334-3118 (in the Washington metropolitan area) Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, shar- ing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and rec - ognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad com - munity of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the gov - ernment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON GLOBAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGIES AND THEIR EFFECT ON U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY C. D. (DAN) MOTE, JR. (NAE), Chair, University of Maryland JOHN GANNON, Vice Chair, BAE Systems RAKESH AGRAWAL (NAE), Microsoft Search Labs ROBERT BRODERSEN (NAE), University of California, Berkeley DANIEL T. CHIU, University of Washington JACQUELINE FLETCHER, Oklahoma State University PAUL C. GAILEY, Fetzer Memorial Trust HENDRIK F. HAMANN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center DANIEL E. HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology THOMAS R. HOWELL, Dewey & LeBoeuf DONALD H. LEVY (NAS), University of Chicago FRANCES S. LIGLER (NAE), Naval Research Laboratory HEATHER J. MacLEAN, Idaho National Laboratory FAWWAZ T. ULABY (NAE), University of Michigan KATHLEEN A. WALSH, U.S. Naval War College HEATHER WILSON, Heather Wilson & Company, LLC Staff DANIEL E. J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director KAMARA E. BROWN, Research Associate MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator SHANNON C. H. THOMAS, Program Associate v

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Preface In the spring of 2009, the Office of the Chief Scientist, Central Intelligence Agency, and the Defense Warning Office of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to review and analyze the science and technology (S&T) advancement strategies of six countries and to judge their likely impact on U.S. national security and competitiveness at present and over the coming 3 to 5 years and 10+ years. The sponsors also asked the NRC for recommendations to the U.S. government based on the study findings. We wish to express our appreciation to the members of the committee for their diligent and dedicated contri - butions to the study and to the preparation of this report. The committee’s diverse experience contributed greatly to the broad perspective on S&T in the 21st century that is incorporated in this report. The committee is also grateful to the CIA and DIA for their sponsorship and to the intelligence community for its active participation throughout the study. The committee cannot thank the NRC staff members Dennis Chamot, Daniel Talmage, Marguerite Schneider, Kamara Brown, and Shannon Thomas too effusively for their dedication to the study and to the preparation of this report. C. Dan Mote, Chair John Gannon, Vice Chair Committee on Global Science and Technology Strategies and Their Effect on U.S. National Security vii

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: R. Stephen Berry, NAS, Franck Institute, Arthur I. Bienenstock, Stanford University, Vinton G. Cerf, NAE, Google, Inc., Diane E. Griffin, NAS, IOM, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Richard Johnson, Arnold & Porter, LLC, Jonathan D. Moreno, University of Pennsylvania Health System, R. Byron Pipes, NAE, Purdue University, and Paul Saffo, Saffo.com. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Julia Phillips (NAE), Sandia National Laboratories. Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. viii

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 5 Background and Report Focus, 6 Possible Implications for U.S. National Security, 6 Report Organization, 7 References, 8 2 METHODOLOGY 9 Criteria for Selection of Countries, 9 Criteria for High-Impact/Key Technical Areas, 9 Method of Information Gathering and Evaluation, 10 Research Timeframe, 11 References, 12 3 BRAZIL 13 Introduction, 13 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy, 14 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency, 16 S&T Investments of Interest, 16 Energy, 17 Biological Resources, 17 Space, 17 Military Science and Technology Plans, 18 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement, 18 Industry Involvement in S&T, 19 Satellite Capabilities, 19 Higher Education and Jobs, 19 Government and Industry R&D Expenditures, 19 ix

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x CONTENTS Regional S&T Integration, 20 Academic Publications and Patents, 20 Findings and Recommendations, 20 References, 21 Published, 21 Unpublished, 21 4 CHINA 22 Introduction, 22 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy, 23 National S&T Goals, 24 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency, 25 S&T Investments of Interest, 26 Information Technology and Communications Sector, 26 Energy, 27 Biotechnology, 28 Integration of China’s S&T and Industrial Development with Defense Modernization, 29 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement, 29 R&D Funding, 30 S&T Personnel, 30 Research Publications, 30 Patents, 31 Possible Scenarios in Chinese S&T, 31 Findings and Recommendations, 32 References, 33 Published, 33 Unpublished, 34 5 INDIA 35 Introduction, 35 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy, 36 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency, 38 S&T Investments of Interest, 38 Key Programs Under the 11th Five-Year Plan, 38 Major Accomplishments During the 10th Five-Year Plan, 39 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement, 40 R&D Funding, 40 Human Resources, 40 Higher Education, 41 Research Publications, 41 Patents, 41 Conclusion, 42 High Aspirations and Unifying Vision, 42 Increasing Confidence in Indigenous Capabilities, 42 Emergence of Globally Competitive Business Enterprises in Automotives, Pharmaceuticals, Information Technology, and Telecommunications, 42 Suspicion of Neighboring Countries and Fear of Technology Denial, 42 Inefficiency in Innovation, 43 Development Challenges, 43 Implications for the United States, 43

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xi CONTENTS Findings and Recommendations, 43 Bibliography, 44 6 JAPAN 46 Introduction, 46 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy, 47 Institutional Reforms, 47 Increased Government Funding for R&D, 48 University-Industry Partnerships, 48 Reform of the Patent System, 49 Green Innovation, 49 Japan’s National Security Concerns, 49 Role of Science and Technology in Addressing Security Concerns, 50 Military R&D, 50 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency, 51 S&T Investments of Interest, 51 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement, 54 University-Industry Partnerships, 54 Foreign Direct Investment, 56 Start-ups, 56 Social and Demographic Indicators, 56 Patents, 57 Findings and Recommendations, 57 References, 58 Published, 58 Unpublished, 58 7 RUSSIA 59 Introduction, 59 Modernization of State-Owned Industries, 61 Improved R&D Environment, 62 “New Schools” Initiative, 62 Military Infrastructure, 62 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy, 63 Short-Term Goals—2012, 63 Mid-Term Goals—2015, 64 Long-Term Goals—2025, 64 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency, 64 S&T Investments of Interest, 65 Medical Technology, Medical Equipment, and Pharmaceuticals, 65 Energy Efficiency, Generation, and Distribution, 66 Applications of Nuclear Fission and Fusion, 66 Telecommunications and Space Technology, 66 Computer and Information Technology, 67 Nanotechnology to Support Priority Areas, 67 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement, 68 Share of Nongovernmental Funding, 68 Level of Foreign S&T Investments, 69 S&T Personnel, 69 Export of High-Technology Products, 69

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xii CONTENTS Findings and Recommendations, 69 Conclusion, 70 Need for Transformation, 70 Lack of Qualified Leadership, 70 Rejection of International Partnerships, 71 References, 71 Published, 71 Unpublished, 73 8 SINGAPORE 74 Introduction, 74 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy, 75 S&T Investments of Interest, 76 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency, 77 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement, 77 Findings and Recommendations, 78 References, 79 Published, 79 Unpublished, 80 9 MILITARY AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS 81 Introduction, 81 Grasping the Task, 81 Current Context, 83 The Expanding Global Threat Assessment, 84 Identifying Drivers, 84 Flagging Uncertainty, 85 Assessing Military Impact, 85 Net Assessment by Country, 86 China, 86 Singapore, 87 India, 87 Brazil, 88 Japan, 89 Russia, 89 Findings and Recommendations, 89 References, 90 10 RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES FOR THE UNITED STATES 92 Introduction, 92 21st-Century Global Science and Technology Innovation Environment, 92 Indicators of Science and Technology Achievement Are Country Specific, 96 S&T Talent in High Demand in All Countries, 97 APPENDIXES A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members, 101 B Meetings and Speakers, 108

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Acronyms and Abbreviations A*STAR Agency for Science, Technology and Research (of Singapore) BMD ballistic missile defense BPD barrels per day BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, and China CIA Central Intelligence Agency CNPq Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnol�gico (Council for Scientific and Technological Development) CRS Congressional Research Service CSIR Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (Government of India) CSTP Council for Science and Technology Policy (Government of Japan) DAE Department of Atomic Energy DIA Defense Intelligence Agency DOD Department of Defense (United States) DPJ Democratic Party of Japan DST Department of Science & Technology (Government of India) DSTA Defence Science and Technology Agency (Government of Singapore) EDA electronic design automation ERA Emergency Reaction to Accidents FDI foreign direct investment FINEP Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (Financier of Studies and Projects) FYP five-year plan GCI global competitiveness index xiii

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xiv ACrONymS ANd AbbrEViATiONS GDP gross domestic product GERD gross expenditure on research and development GET-UP Growing Enterprises with Technology Upgrade (Singapore) GLONASS Global’naya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema (Global Navigation Satellite System) GNP gross national product GPS global positioning system GSLV Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle GWe gigawatt-electric HTI High Tech Indicator IC intelligence community IED improvised explosive device IGS information gathering satellite IITs Indian Institutes of Technology IMD International Institute for Management Development IMF International Monetary Fund INCT Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia (National Institute of Science and Technology) INSAT Indian National Satellite System IP intellectual property ISSCC International Solid State Circuits Conference IT information technology ITC innovative-technological centers JBRICS Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Singapore KAM Knowledge Assessment Methodology KIP Knowledge Innovation Program MDA model-driven architecture MLTP Medium and Long Term Plan for S&T MTI Ministry of Trade and Industry (Government of Singapore) MRI magnetic resonance imaging MWe megawatt-electric NAE National Academy of Engineering NIAC national information analytical center NIC National Intelligence Council (of the United States) NIE National Intelligence Estimate NISTADS National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies NISTEP National Institute of Science and Technology Policy NRC National Research Council NSF National Science Foundation OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PACTI Plano de Ação, Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação para o Desenvolvimiento Nacional (Action Plan on Science, Technology and Innovation for National Development) PDM product data management PHWR pressurized heavy-water reactor

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xv ACrONymS ANd AbbrEViATiONS PPP purchasing power parity PRC People’s Republic of China PSA Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser (India) PV photovoltaic PWR pressurized water reactor QDR Quadrennial Defense Review R&D research and development RD&I research, development, and innovation RIEC Research Innovation & Enterprise Council S&T science and technology SARS severe acute respiratory syndrome SERC Science and Engineering Research Council (of Singapore) SPRING Standards, Productivity, and Innovation Board ST&I science, technology, and innovation STEM science, technology, engineering, and mathematics TIGER Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review UAV unmanned aerial vehicle

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