prepare for and react to global changes in S&T environments and consequently preserve and enhance its own security and competitiveness in the 21st century.
Many factors affect the likelihood of achieving national S&T goals, including the coupling of socioeconomic and cultural drivers, the rapid advancement of technological development, the globalization of R&D, the opaqueness and the resulting unpredictability of programs, and simply countries’ available resources, priority setting and execution, disruptions, and other internal and external factors. Confidence in the three- to five-year forecasts of S&T capability is reasonably high but decreases to speculation beyond five years.
The best indicators of progress toward achieving national goals are country specific and must reflect both traditional and nontraditional factors. Traditional indicators are quantitative measures of S&T investment, activity, and outcomes such as patents per capita, S&T investment as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), the fraction of national research expenditures made by industry, and the number of start-up companies. A visualization of the JBRICS countries according to a selection of such S&T innovation-related indicators is shown in Figure S-1. Nontraditional indicators emerging from cultural contexts are country specific. They are essential to understanding