S&T STRATEGIES OF SIX COUNTRIES
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This is a report of work supported by Contract No. HHM40205D0011 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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COMMITTEE ON GLOBAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGIES AND THEIR EFFECT ON U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY
C. D. (DAN) MOTE, JR. (NAE), Chair,
University of Maryland
JOHN GANNON, Vice Chair,
BAE Systems
RAKESH AGRAWAL (NAE),
Microsoft Search Labs
ROBERT BRODERSEN (NAE),
University of California, Berkeley
DANIEL T. CHIU,
University of Washington
JACQUELINE FLETCHER,
Oklahoma State University
PAUL C. GAILEY,
Fetzer Memorial Trust
HENDRIK F. HAMANN, IBM T.J.
Watson Research Center
DANIEL E. HASTINGS,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
THOMAS R. HOWELL,
Dewey & LeBoeuf
DONALD H. LEVY (NAS),
University of Chicago
FRANCES S. LIGLER (NAE),
Naval Research Laboratory
HEATHER J. MacLEAN,
Idaho National Laboratory
FAWWAZ T. ULABY (NAE),
University of Michigan
KATHLEEN A. WALSH,
U.S. Naval War College
HEATHER WILSON,
Heather Wilson & Company, LLC
Staff
DANIEL E. J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director
KAMARA E. BROWN, Research Associate
MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator
SHANNON C. H. THOMAS, Program Associate
Preface
In the spring of 2009, the Office of the Chief Scientist, Central Intelligence Agency, and the Defense Warning Office of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to review and analyze the science and technology (S&T) advancement strategies of six countries and to judge their likely impact on U.S. national security and competitiveness at present and over the coming 3 to 5 years and 10+ years. The sponsors also asked the NRC for recommendations to the U.S. government based on the study findings.
We wish to express our appreciation to the members of the committee for their diligent and dedicated contributions to the study and to the preparation of this report. The committee’s diverse experience contributed greatly to the broad perspective on S&T in the 21st century that is incorporated in this report. The committee is also grateful to the CIA and DIA for their sponsorship and to the intelligence community for its active participation throughout the study. The committee cannot thank the NRC staff members Dennis Chamot, Daniel Talmage, Marguerite Schneider, Kamara Brown, and Shannon Thomas too effusively for their dedication to the study and to the preparation of this report.
C. Dan Mote, Chair
John Gannon, Vice Chair
Committee on Global Science and Technology Strategies and Their Effect on U.S. National Security
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
R. Stephen Berry, NAS, Franck Institute,
Arthur I. Bienenstock, Stanford University,
Vinton G. Cerf, NAE, Google, Inc.,
Diane E. Griffin, NAS, IOM, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,
Richard Johnson, Arnold & Porter, LLC,
Jonathan D. Moreno, University of Pennsylvania Health System,
R. Byron Pipes, NAE, Purdue University, and
Paul Saffo, Saffo.com.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Julia Phillips (NAE), Sandia National Laboratories. Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Acronyms and Abbreviations
A*STAR Agency for Science, Technology and Research (of Singapore)
BMD ballistic missile defense
BPD barrels per day
BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, and China
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
CNPq Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (Council for Scientific and Technological Development)
CRS Congressional Research Service
CSIR Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (Government of India)
CSTP Council for Science and Technology Policy (Government of Japan)
DAE Department of Atomic Energy
DIA Defense Intelligence Agency
DOD Department of Defense (United States)
DPJ Democratic Party of Japan
DST Department of Science & Technology (Government of India)
DSTA Defence Science and Technology Agency (Government of Singapore)
EDA electronic design automation
ERA Emergency Reaction to Accidents
FDI foreign direct investment
FINEP Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (Financier of Studies and Projects)
FYP five-year plan
GCI global competitiveness index
GDP gross domestic product
GERD gross expenditure on research and development
GET-UP Growing Enterprises with Technology Upgrade (Singapore)
GLONASS Global’naya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema (Global Navigation Satellite System)
GNP gross national product
GPS global positioning system
GSLV Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle
GWe gigawatt-electric
HTI High Tech Indicator
IC intelligence community
IED improvised explosive device
IGS information gathering satellite
IITs Indian Institutes of Technology
IMD International Institute for Management Development
IMF International Monetary Fund
INCT Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia (National Institute of Science and Technology)
INSAT Indian National Satellite System
IP intellectual property
ISSCC International Solid State Circuits Conference
IT information technology
ITC innovative-technological centers
JBRICS Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Singapore
KAM Knowledge Assessment Methodology
KIP Knowledge Innovation Program
MDA model-driven architecture
MLTP Medium and Long Term Plan for S&T
MTI Ministry of Trade and Industry (Government of Singapore)
MRI magnetic resonance imaging
MWe megawatt-electric
NAE National Academy of Engineering
NIAC national information analytical center
NIC National Intelligence Council (of the United States)
NIE National Intelligence Estimate
NISTADS National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies
NISTEP National Institute of Science and Technology Policy
NRC National Research Council
NSF National Science Foundation
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PACTI Plano de Ação, Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação para o Desenvolvimiento Nacional (Action Plan on Science, Technology and Innovation for National Development)
PDM product data management
PHWR pressurized heavy-water reactor
PPP purchasing power parity
PRC People’s Republic of China
PSA Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser (India)
PV photovoltaic
PWR pressurized water reactor
QDR Quadrennial Defense Review
R&D research and development
RD&I research, development, and innovation
RIEC Research Innovation & Enterprise Council
S&T science and technology
SARS severe acute respiratory syndrome
SERC Science and Engineering Research Council (of Singapore)
SPRING Standards, Productivity, and Innovation Board
ST&I science, technology, and innovation
STEM science, technology, engineering, and mathematics
TIGER Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review
UAV unmanned aerial vehicle